俄中角力民航客机新兴市场之争

    不过俄制客机真正的潜在买家当属那些预算不大宽裕的航空公司，尤其是亚洲的航空公司。他们一方面增长迅速，另一方面，他们无论对波音还是空客都没有很强的品牌忠诚度，因此俄罗斯人很有机会在那里打开局面。不过同时俄国人也要和中国的大飞机项目进行竞争，中国商用飞机公司（COMAC）目前正在生产自己的C919单通道客机。到目前为止，只有中国的航空公司订购了该型客机。首架C919将于四年后——也就是2016年投入使用。随着中国开始对一些国家施加影响力，C919应该会逐渐获得更多客户。不过由于中国商用飞机公司主要锁定巨大的中国市场，因此国际扩张对于它来说并不是特别重要。这家公司或许只需要为几家中国航空公司生产飞机就能过得很好。

    因此，波音和空客控制整片蓝天的日子也许不会太久了。到2020年左右，他们可能会失去对中国和独联体国家单通道客机市场的控制。尽管俄罗斯的民航客机项目因为上周的坠机而遭受了打击，但它依然能在政府的大力支持下度过难关。等到MS-21客机投放市场，才是俄罗斯人与波音和空客摊牌的时候。如果这款客机真的如俄罗斯人所说的那样先进和节能，那么对于那些根本分不清波音和空客的亚非拉航空公司来说，MS-21也许会成为一个可行的替代选择。

    译者：朴成奎

    But the real prize is the budget airlines, especially those based in Asia. These airlines are growing fast and do not have strong brand loyalty to either Boeing or Airbus, so the Russians really have a chance to make their mark here. But the Russians will also have to compete against COMAC, China's upstart aircraft producer, which is building its own single-aisle aircraft, the C919. So far, only Chinese airlines have ordered the prototype, with the first jet set to go into service in 2016, four years from now. It should slowly gain more customers as China starts to use its influence over certain countries to pick up a few aircraft. But international expansion isn't critical for COMAC given its lock over the massive Chinese market. It could probably just produce planes for the various Chinese airlines and do very well.

    So Boeing and Airbus may control the skies now but not for long. They will most likely lose control of the lucrative single-aisle market in the former Soviet states as well as in China by the end of the decade. While the Russian program has taken a hit with last week's crash, strong government support will help it through this rough patch. The real show down will occur when the MS-21 hits the market. If it is as fuel efficient and advanced as the Russians claim, it could be a viable alternative to budget conscious upstart airlines in Asia, Latin America and Africa who don't know their Boeing from their Airbus.