Facebook上市受挫拖累帕洛阿尔托房价

    通过各公司的股价、营收、利润、雇用情况，甚至剪报等，我们就可以把握硅谷的发展脉搏。或者直接卡看加州帕洛阿尔托市房地产市场的走势，一样可以对硅谷的发展前景有所了解。

    毕竟，这里是马克•扎克伯格居住的社区，史蒂夫•乔布斯也曾是这里的居民，而且还有无数企业家和他们的金主们都希望能入住这里。当初这片住宅区的房价持续攀升时，人们都说帕洛阿尔托是硅谷新城！但当一栋普通的的双卧室别墅价格跌到100万美元左右时，我们可以说，这座城市离房地产泡沫破灭的日子或许已经不远了。

    然而事实并非如此，因为硅谷的新老公司依然牛气冲天。但Facebook这家标志性公司的种种不足却让帕洛阿尔托颇受打击。5月18日，Facebook首次公开募股之前，我们参观了这个小镇橡树成荫的街道，当时这里的房地产市场陷入了疯狂，似乎就连街旁树木的价格都令人瞠目结舌。这是因为许多房主希望Facebook的首次公开募股能像2004年谷歌公司（Google）一样，给他们带来好运。于是，卖家纷纷捂盘惜售。比如在今年第一季度，帕洛阿尔托一栋独栋房产的中位价格上涨了11%，但库存量却下降了57%。

    不过，随着Facebook首次公开募股的惨败，帕洛阿尔托的房地产市场也随之发生了巨大的变化。Facebook上市当日股价最高达到每股45美元，如今已经跌至25.52美元，下跌了43%，比38美元的发行价下跌了33%。（周二收盘价为每股27.40美元。）而这直接导致帕洛阿尔托大量房地产蜂拥入市。虽然目前只有很少的数据，但却表明卖家心理发生了巨大的变化。美国多重挂牌服务系统（Multiple Listing Service）采集的数据显示，目前，该地区上市交易的房产有104栋，是去年冬季的两倍以上。即便与去年六月份相比，库存量也增加了44%。

    而就在帕洛阿尔托附近，Facebook新总部所在的门洛帕克，房地产市场变化的趋势却并不明显。目前，该地区入市交易的房屋共有103栋，比去年冬季增加了约80%，与去年同期相比增加了约20%。

    帕洛阿尔托一位著名的房地产经纪人迈克尔•德雷福斯表示：“Facebook让卖家明白了一个道理：凡事无绝对，不要太挑剔。有一位房主曾经说：‘我知道我的房子值500万美元，但如果有人出价1,000万美元，我就接受。’如今，随着Facebook的惨败，这种‘随行就市’的定价方式已经不再适用。”

    德雷福斯称，如同之前几轮上涨时一样，卖家开始意识到，情况会逐渐恶化，而不是好转。他说：“当然，我觉得现在还算不上恐慌，只是他们认清了现实而已。”

    他的客户中有一位四十出头的风险投资家，希望在帕洛阿尔托买进价位在300万至400万美元的中端房产。Facebook引发当地房地产市场的狂热之前，这位投资家曾计划竞购几套房产，结果出价低于别的买家。当时，卖方的要价只能作为一个参考，成交价往往会高出许多。他期待Facebook的首次公开募股惨淡收场，结果如愿以偿。上周，他给德雷福斯发邮件，兴奋地称近期将不会有新高科技公司进行首次公开募股。这位投资家在邮件中说道：这两件事“或许会对我们有利。”

    如果连一位风险投资家都欢呼市场回归理性时，我们就应该非常清楚地意识到，形势已经发生了变化。

    译者：刘进龙/汪皓

    You can take the pulse of the prospects of Silicon Valley by checking stock prices, revenues, profits, hiring, even press clippings of various companies. Or instead maybe you should just look at the real estate market in Palo Alto, California.

    After all, this is where Mark Zuckerberg lives, where Steve Jobs used to, and where countless entrepreneurs and their financiers want to move. When the price of that megalo-mansion just keeps going up -- hey, do you think it has a gift shop? -- we all say it'sboomtown in the Valley. But when the value of that modest two-bedroom bungalow actually comes down near a meager $1 million, we say the end of the bubble may be nigh.

    Not quite so, as many companies in the Valley, new and old, continue to soar. But the shortcomings of one iconic company, Facebook (FB), now seem to be taking their toll in Palo Alto. Before Facebook's May 18 IPO, when we last paid a visit to the town's oak-lined streets -- where even the trees have fabulous price values associated with them -- the housing market was going especially bonkers.

    That's because so many sellers, expecting a bountiful IPO along the lines of the Google (GOOG) bonanza in 2004, kept their homes off the market. For the first quarter of this year, for example, the median price of a single-family Palo Alto home went up 11%, while inventory declined 57%.

    All that changed when the Facebook IPO flopped. Since the stock peaked at $45 on the day it opened, it has gone as low as $25.52, a decline of 43% and 33% below its IPO price of $38. (It closed Tuesday at $27.40.) The result in Palo Alto has been a flood of houses going on the market. It's a small set of data, but it tells a story of vastly changed seller psychology. Right now, there are 104 houses on the market -- more than double the number over the winter, according to numbers culled from the Multiple Listing Service. Even compared to last June, inventory is up 44%.

    In nearby Menlo Park, where Facebook's new headquarters are located, the trend is less pronounced. There are 103 houses currently on the market, up about 80% over the winter and nearly 20% more than a year ago.

    "Facebook gave me a gift in showing my sellers there's no sure thing and don't-look-a-gift-horse-in-the-mouth," says Michael Dreyfus, a prominent residential real estate broker based in Palo Alto. "The "make-me-move" prices -- where a seller says, 'I know my house is worth $5 million but if somebody pays me $10 million I'll take it,' are over due to the Facebook bomb."

    Dreyfus says sellers are realizing, as they always have in past run-ups, that things may get worse before they get better. "I wouldn't call it a panic," he says, "but it's a good dose of reality."

    One of his clients is a venture capitalist in his early 40s, looking to buy in the mid-range for Palo Alto homes: $3 million to $4 million. The VC had been outbid on several properties during the pre-Facebook frenzy, when asking prices could be a mere suggestion -- on the low end. The VC hoped for a lackluster Facebook IPO. He got it. Last week he excitedly emailed Dreyfus as well about the recent dearth in new high-tech IPOs. Both, the VC wrote, "may help us."

    When a VC is cheering on the return of apparent rationality, it's pretty clear that things have changed.