奥巴马竞选策略调整不得人心

    然而，奥巴马当选四年之后，改变并未发生，游戏规则依旧：你投票，我统治。拉希奇很失望：“很多人认为，在他的希望和改变的口号下聚集了巨大的政治支持，他却没有好好珍惜。”比如，奥巴马本可以利用1,300万支持者去游说议员，以支持其健保法案。拉希奇认为白宫、特别是奥巴马的首任幕僚长拉姆•伊曼纽尔并不相信“我们”的力量。“他们退回到‘天字第一号讲坛’（指白宫），他们重拾20世纪的交流方式。”这种态度看来已经影响了2012年的竞选。

    28岁的洛米奇•康斯特说：“这是一场完全不同的竞选。”2008年，她和一些音乐以及影视界的大牌明星组织活动，为奥巴马筹得数百万美元。“真是鼓舞人心，”她回忆道。“当有人相信你有能力做你想做的，你就有力量和潜能去实现更多的梦想。我还能鼓舞其他人。”而这一次“就是传统的自上而下的有组织竞选。”现在单单批准活动计划就需要几个月。康斯特说：“他们束缚了人们的手脚。”她曾担任面向年轻人的奥巴马竞选筹资组织Gen 44的全国联席主席，但在2011年11月愤而辞职。

    在洛杉矶，33岁的电影制作人夏朗•“布恩”• 萨利姆曾在2008年为奥巴马卖命工作，组织了多场聚会，人们观看喜剧、辩论或者电影，还可以与影视明星见面，吸引了不少年轻专业人才。他们交流看法，交结朋友，谈笑间就筹集了160万美元竞选资金。而这些并不是奥巴马团队的主意。萨利姆说：“我们自己就轻松搞定了一切。”这一次萨利姆也打算帮忙，但他能感觉到来自青年支持者的怒火。“我认识的很多人都不开心，”他说。“他们想要联系组织，参与活动，但没人搭理。”

    奥巴马的竞选班子也许认为他们无需担心年轻人的支持。哈佛大学政治研究所（Institute of Politics）的最新全国民调显示，在18-29岁的美国人中，奥巴马领先其可能的共和党对手米特•罗姆尼多达17个百分点，比去年11月扩大了6个百分点。但年轻人还会那么热心筹款，或者联系朋友们去支持总统吗？他们还会全力以赴出手投票吗？2008年大选时，有额外的200万30岁以下美国人参与了投票，其中大多数都投给了奥巴马。

    奥巴马竞选班子的高级官员告诉我，他们不能再像2008年那样依靠支持者的自发组织。首先，奥巴马的竞选活动不能在言行上有损总统的第一任期。作为现任总统，他必须更加小心，而2008年他只不过是个希望不大的候选人。

    And yet, four years after Obama was elected, nothing much has changed. The same rules apply: Give me your vote and I will rule. Rasiej is disappointed: "Lots of us believe he squandered the massive political constituency that was drawn to his message of hope and change." The 13 million supporters, for instance, could have helped Obama by lobbying their congressmen to back the health care legislation. Yet Rasiej thinks the White House, and in particular Obama's first chief of staff, Rahm Emanuel, didn't believe in the power of "we." "They went back to the bully pulpit of the presidency. They literally put on the armour of 20th century communications."

    That attitude seems to have influenced the 2012 campaign.

    "It's a completely different campaign," says Nomiki Konst, 28. In 2008, she helped to help to raise millions of dollars for Obama by organizing events in Los Angeles with some big names in music and movies. "It was inspiring," she said. "When someone says you have the ability to do what you want, it gave me the power and the potential to do so much more. I could relay that inspiration to others." This time, "it's a traditional top-down, managed campaign." It now takes months to approve plans for events. "They're putting handcuffs on people," said Konst, who served as national co-chair of Gen 44, the Obama campaign's fundraising arm for young people. She got so frustrated that she resigned in November 2011.

    In Los Angeles, 33-year-old film executive Haroon "Boon" Saleem worked hard for Obama in 2008 to galvanize young professionals, with comedy nights, debate watching parties, movie nights where you could meet successful movie and T.V. celebrities. They spread the word, made friends, and helped to raise $1.6 million for the campaign. The ideas didn't come from the Obama organization. "We just did it," says Saleem. This time, Saleem is planning to help out, but he can feel the resentment in the young supporters: "I know a huge number of people who are unhappy," said Saleem. "They wanted to be connected and involved but they weren't."

    The Obama campaign may think that they don't' need to worry about youth support. A new national poll of America's 18- to 29-year-olds by Harvard's Institute of Politics shows that Barack Obama now leads his likely Republican opponent Mitt Romney a 17 point margin, a gain of six percentage points since November 2011. But will young people be as keen to raise money and connect with friends to support the president? Will they go out and vote in huge numbers, as they did in 2008, when an extra 2 million Americans under 30 voted, mostly for Obama?

    A senior figure in the Obama campaign tells me that they can't depend on self-organization in the way same that they did in 2008. For one thing, the Obama campaign cannot do or say anything that compromises the president's first term. As an incumbent, he needs to be more cautious in 2008 when he was a long-shot candidate.