希腊救助大戏还没有落幕

    上周末希腊选举的结果或许让欧元区领导人和华尔街稍稍松了口气，但希腊和欧元区其他地区的政治和经济问题依然盘桓不去。即便是赢得选举的、所谓的“支持救助”的政党建立起一个全国统一的政府，希腊仍然会面临诸多重大的经济难题，使其难以履行在2,400亿欧元救助方案中做出的承诺。

    因此，欧洲领导人和希腊债券持有人应当做好心理准备，不管在雅典掌权的新一届政府是谁，它都需要在某种程度上重新协商救助条款。这么做并不意味着希腊将背弃它的所有承诺，或者说离开欧元区——没人希望看到这样的情形。欧盟（European Union）和国际货币基金组织（International Monetary Fund）如果明智，就应当在偿债安排方面给予希腊一定的灵活性。这样，欧元区领导人就能暂时把希腊放在一边，集中全部精力防止西班牙、意大利和法国爆发更严重的经济危机。

    上周末，中右翼新民主党（New Democracy Party）在万众瞩目的希腊大选中获得了多数选票，得票率约30%。新民主党不仅大败传统劲敌中左翼泛希社运党（Pasok，得票率仅12%），还以微弱优势战胜了此次大选的主要对手——极左翼的左派政党联盟（Syriza，得票率约27%）。

    新民主党在媒体的帮助下成功地为左派政党联盟扣上了反欧元、反救助和反欧盟的大帽子，一旦左派政党联盟当选，必定会把希腊直接送入经济炼狱。虽然左派政党联盟属于极左翼（在他们的集会中，榔头和镰刀随处可见），但它其实并不像它头上套的帽子所说的那样激进。比如，左派政党联盟从未鼓吹过脱离欧元或欧盟。它的确希望重新协商希腊救助条款，但从未声称要全盘推卸一切责任。

    左派政党联盟的民粹主张，帮助它从曾经的默默无闻一跃成为希腊第二受欢迎的政党。到上周末投票时，希腊所有的主要政党都表示，他们将敦促对救助条款进行一定的修改。虽然有些可能更激进，但主流观点就是现有形式的救助不起作用，需要对条款进行调整。

    因此，千万别上当。如果新民主党成功地组建了一家联合政府，它必定希望重新协商救助条款。新民主党领导人安东尼斯•萨马拉斯在竞选过程中曾表示，救助方案没有给希腊留出足够的经济增长空间。尽管他不太可能撕毁救助协议，完全另起炉灶，但我们可以确信，一定会进行调整。

    The results of the Greek election over the weekend may have eurozone champions and Wall Street breathing a sigh of relief, but the political and economic troubles within Greece and the rest of the eurozone remain firmly in place. Even if the victorious so-called "pro-bailout" parties were to form a government of national unity, Greece will continue to experience major economic difficulties, which will prevent it from ever living up to the terms of its 240 billion euro bailout.

    As such, eurozone leaders and Greek bondholders should expect that any new government taking power in Athens will at some point need to renegotiate the terms of the bailout. Doing so doesn't mean Greece will renege on all its commitments or leave the euro – no one wants to see that. Therefore, the European Union and the International Monetary Fund would be wise to grant Greece some leeway on their repayment schedule. That way, eurozone leaders can put Greece on the backburner and focus all their attention in preventing a far more dangerous economic crisis from taking root in Spain, Italy and France.

    The right-of-center New Democracy Party garnered the most votes in the much-anticipated Greek national elections this weekend, collecting around 30% of the vote. New Democracy not only trounced its traditional archenemy, the left-of-center Pasok party, which received just 12% of the vote, but also edged out its main rival this election cycle, the far-left Syriza party, which took home around 27% of the vote.

    New Democracy, with help from the media, successfully labeled Syriza as the anti-euro, anti-bailout and anti-EU party, which, if elected, would send Greece straight to economic purgatory. While Syriza was far left (hammer and sickles were a common sight at their rallies), it wasn't as radical as it had been labeled. For example, Syriza never advocated leaving the euro or leaving the EU. It did want to renegotiate the terms of the Greek bailout, but didn't advocate totally walking away from all the country's commitments.

    The popularity of Syriza's message helped propel it from virtual obscurity to the second most popular political party in the country. By the time voting came around this weekend, all the major parties said they would push for some sort of alteration in the bailout terms. While some were more radical than the others, the key was that it had become a mainstream view that the bailout wasn't working in its current form and that there needed to be a change in the terms.

    So don't be fooled, New Democracy will certainly want to renegotiate the terms of the bailout if it is successful in forming a coalition government. Antonis Samaras, the New Democracy leader, argued throughout the campaign that the bailout doesn't allow enough room for Greece to grow its economy. While he is unlikely to rip up the bailout contract and start from scratch, you can bet there will be some changes.