摩根大通会因“伦敦鲸”而“洗大澡”吗？

    “摩根大通总能想出法子让业绩看起来相对比较乐观，”罗奇代尔证券（Rochdale Securities）的分析师理查德•博韦说，“他们可以利用多种利润源来降低亏损。”

    许多分析师却认为摩根大通的交易亏损可能大于预期。摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）银行分析师贝琪•格拉塞克最近估计，“伦敦鲸”事件引起的损失可能达到70亿美元之多。摩根大通下个月即将公布第二财季的业绩。分析师们预测该行第二财季每股收益为0.86美元，约合净利润33亿美元。而在“伦敦鲸”亏损公布前，分析师们的预期为每股收益1.24美元，合净利润47亿美元。

    但是这段时间以来，欧洲和美国经济前景恶化，这也可能导致分析师下调了对摩根大通的收益预期。投资公司Evercore的银行分析师安德鲁•马奎德说，关于“伦敦鲸”亏损交易的情况，摩根大通公布的信息还不够，所以仍然无法估计这个亏损的窟窿到底有多大。他说：“现在大家都是在猜测而已。”

    译者：默默

    "JPMorgan always finds a way to manage their earnings to get a relatively positive result," says Richard Bove, an analyst at Rochdale Securities. "There are multiple sources of income they could use to blunt the losses."

    A number of analysts have taken the stance that JPMorgan's trading loss could be larger than expected. Morgan Stanley bank analyst Betsy Graseck recently estimated the hit from the London Whale to be as large as $7 billion. The bank will report quarterly results next month, and analysts are predicting JPMorgan will earn $0.86 a share in the second quarter, or roughly $3.3 billion. That's down from an estimate of $1.24 a share, or $4.7 billion before the London Whale's losses were announced.

    But during that time the outlook for Europe and the U.S. economy has worsened as well, potentially contributing to the lower expectations for JPMorgan's earnings. Bank analyst Andrew Marquardt of Evercore says JPMorgan has yet to release enough information about the exact London Whale trades to make an estimate of how large the losses are. "It's complete speculation," he says.