信用违约掉期可以休矣

    对于CDS市场的支持者而言，最好的问题是这些合约何时起过作用。AIG出售的CDS合约得以履约，全靠山姆大叔。你甚至都不能指望救助。当希腊“自愿”被欧洲其他国家救助时，该国国债减值50%。主导CDS市场的机构决定，CDS持有人不能获得他们购买的保险。CDS不覆盖自愿救助，就好像希腊还有其他选择。这是这个千疮百孔市场的另一个漏洞。

    而且，不清楚在多德-弗兰克法案（Dodd-Frank）下这会不会改变。多德-弗兰克法案规定，大多数CDS交易将必须经过一家清算所。但其他投资者保护意在消除股市和债市中的操纵和欺诈行为，CDS并不适用。

    美国公共电视网（PBS）《前线》栏目（Frontline）最近播出了四集金融危机纪录片，在一开始就花了很多篇幅谈论CDS市场及其源起。CDS合约最先由摩根大通创立。《前线》采访了当年很多参与其中的摩根大通银行家。似乎是说摩根大通能避开这场金融危机的很多雷区，是因为它知道自己在做什么。但当其他不那么负责和不那么聪明的银行家开始进入这个市场，CDS开始变得危险。事实是如今摩根大通被CDS重伤，这可以作为金融“创新”章节再合适不过的结尾，也是为何CDS可以休矣的一个再好不过的例子。

    译者：早稻米

    The best question for proponents of the CDS market is when have the contracts actually worked. The CDS contracts sold by AIG only paid out because of Uncle Sam. And you can't even count on bailouts. When Greece was "voluntarily" bailed out by the rest of Europe, the country's government bonds were written down by 50%. Yet, the group that governs the CDS market ruled that CDS holders couldn't collect on the insurance they had bought. Voluntary bailouts, as if Greece had a choice, were not covered by CDS. It was just another loophole in a Swiss cheese market.

    What's more, it's not clear any of this would change under Dodd-Frank. The new financial regulations state that most CDS trades will have to be run through a clearinghouse. But much of the other investor protections that are supposed to rid stock and bond markets of manipulation and fraud still don't apply when it comes to CDS.

    The recent four-part Frontline PBS documentary on the financial crisis starts with a long description of the CDS market and how it got started. CDS contracts were created at JPMorgan. Frontline interviewed a number of JPMorgan bankers who were there at the start. The implication was that JPMorgan, which sidestepped much of the losses of the financial crisis, knew what they were doing. But when other less responsible and intelligent bankers started getting into the market, that's when CDS got dangerous. The fact that it's now JPMorgan getting stung by the CDS market would serve as a fitting bookend for this chapter in financial "innovation," and a good example of why it should be closed.