2022谁主全球车市沉浮

    赢家：厂商盈亏能力和技术的兼容性是关键。在这个情境中，德国厂商凭借坚实的工艺技术再次领先。不过凭借普锐斯（Prius）的成功，丰田的排名将有所上升，日产汽车（Nissan）也可凭借聆风（Leaf）获得更多份额。沃蓝达（Volt）也会对通用起到类似的促进作用。全电动汽车特斯拉（Tesla）在这个情境中成为了行业领袖——不过它在其它情境中却表现平平。

    输家：近年来凭借混合动力战略快速跟进的韩国现代汽车（Hyundai）将成为本情境的输家。欧洲南部以及中国、印度等国的那些实力较弱的汽车公司由于缺乏资源，将被汽车电池和燃料电池等新能源厂商挤出市场。

情境三：底特律的噩梦

    现在的成功厂商最害怕的就是这个场景——中国和其它新兴市场的汽车厂商快速成长，使他们足以获取充分技术，并在北美设厂生产。随后他们会买下一些知名品牌以及他们的技术，然后把自己的产品运到北美进行销售。随着新兴市场的蓬勃发展，对豪华车型的需求也会水涨船高。例如印度的塔塔汽车集团（Tata）不仅已经拥有了捷豹（Jaguar）和路虎（Land Rover）等品牌，最近还在美国发布了号称“全球最便宜的汽车”Nano。其它汽车厂商不得不被迫与之竞争，从而增加了成本压力。燃油经济性会进一步改善，排放标准会进一步提高，低成本的工艺技术将成为关键。

    赢家：德国大众集团仍然是这个场景的胜利者，这主要归功于它在中国和巴西的强势地位。塔塔和宝马紧随其后。另外还有两家美国人几乎都没听说过的中国厂商可能会挤入第一阵营。他们分别是中国第四大汽车制造商东风汽车公司（Dongfeng），和中国最大的SUV制造商长城汽车公司（Great Wall）。

    输家：福特在此情境中的排名非常靠后，这主要由于它在全球最大的中国市场上只占据了2%的份额。丰田和日产的得分也很低，一方面是由于产品问题，另一方面也是因为在中国市场的占有率较低。标志雪铁龙和菲亚特虽然也有一些低价节油的车型，但却排名垫底，这主要是由于他们的品牌推广不力、经济实力不足。

情境四：廉价车全面占领市场

    摩根士丹利把这个情境称为整个汽车业的最差情境。成熟市场将陷入紧缩和缓慢增长的阶段。汽车成为一种普通商品，技术也不那么重要了。来自新兴市场的廉价汽车像电脑病毒一样四处散播，汽车价格越来越低，传统知名车企纷纷招架不住，要么被挤入小众市场，要么干脆关张大吉。更成功的将是那些薄利多销的企业。出于对交通拥堵和环境的顾虑，买车的人越来越少。人们更看重的是价格和可靠的出行方式，燃油经济性和车型样式都不那么重要了。中级车的买主开始转而关注入门级车型，高端厂商的用户群岌岌可危。分析师们表示：“这真是汽车行业的黑暗时代。”

    赢家：中国的长城汽车公司成为了本情境的赢家——虽然现在它仍然只是中国的第十大汽车制造商。印度的塔塔汽车的排名也很高。在现在的知名厂商中，只有大众、现代和起亚仍然稳定在第一阵营。通用则由于在中国的成功而再一次超过福特。

    输家：在这样一种环境中，梅赛德斯-奔驰（Mercedes-Benz）很难再继续维持繁荣，因而戴姆勒（Daimler）在本情境中的排名十分靠后。在日产公司的帮助下，雷诺（Renault）的排名在所有四个情境中都超过了标志雪铁龙和菲亚特（克莱斯勒在本情境中甚至不值一提）。而特斯拉在本情境中排名垫底，由于低油价加上屈指可数的车型，特斯拉的高科技形象很难玩得转。

    译者：朴成奎

    Winners: Balance sheet strength and technical adaptability are key. The Germans lead again, thanks to their engineering prowess. But Toyota moves up because of its success with the Prius, Nissan gets a boost from the Leaf, and the Volt propels GM higher. All-EV Tesla becomes an industry leader in this scenario (but barely registers in others).

    Losers: Hyundai, with its fast-follower hybrid strategy, gives ground here. Weaker companies in Southern Europe, China, and India that lack resources are pushed out by new entrants like battery makers and fuel cell specialists.

Scenario three: Detroit's nightmare

    This is the scenario most feared by established automakers. Manufacturers in China and other emerging markets grow rapidly, allowing them to acquire technology and begin production in North America. They then buy established brands -- along with their technology -- and transfer their own production to North America. Newly prosperous, they drive up demand for luxury vehicles. India's Tata, which already owns Jaguar and Land Rover, switches gears and launches the Nano in the U.S. Other automakers are forced to compete, creating cost pressures. Fuel economy improves, emission standards tighten, and frugal engineering is key.

    Winners: VW still dominates because of its strong position in China and Brazil. Tata and BMW follow close behind. Two Chinese automakers you probably haven't heard of before -- Dongfeng, China's fourth largest producer, and Great Wall, its leading producer of SUVs -- break into the top tier.

    Losers: Ford finishes well down the list because it only holds 2% of the Chinese market, the world's largest. Toyota and Nissan also score poorly, due to poor products and low market share in China. Peugeot-Citroen and Fiat -- despite making some of the least-expensive, most fuel-thrifty cars anywhere -- rank at the bottom because they lack branding and financial strength.

Scenario four: Wal-Mart on wheels

    Morgan Stanley calls this its worst-case scenario for the auto industry. Developed markets become locked into a cycle of austerity and slow growth. Cars are viewed as commodities, and technology is less important. Cheap cars from emerging markets spread like a computer virus, driving down prices and squeezing legacy companies into niche status or out of business. More successful are low-cost producers with high volumes. Traffic congestion and environmental concerns limit auto ownership. Price and the need for reliable transportation become more important than fuel economy or style. The middle class shifts its focus to entry-level cars, destroying the customer base for high-end manufacturers. "This truly a dark era for the auto industry," say the authors.

    Winners: Great Wall takes the prize here -- even though it is only China's tenth-largest producer -- with Tata in hot pursuit. Among established manufacturers, only VW, Hyundai, and Kia make the top tier. GM outpoints Ford again because of its success in China.

    Losers: Mercedes-Benz can hardly prosper in such an environment, so Daimler finishes well down the list. With the help of Nissan, Renault outpoints Peugeot-Citroen and Fiat (Chrysler doesn't get a mention) in this and all other scenarios. And Tesla ranks dead last since the combination of low fuel prices and bare bones products hardly plays well with its rocket-science image.