奢侈品市场浮华褪色

    过去两年，路易威登（Louis Vutton）皮包、迪奥（Dior）香水等奢侈品的销售一直是全球零售业中为数不多的亮点。然而越来越多的迹象显示，即便最具弹性的消费者，可能也无法承受愈演愈烈的欧债危机和中国经济放缓所造成的影响。

    上周三，英国奢侈时装商店巴宝莉集团（Burberry Group Plc）在奢侈品市场首先出现下跌。之前，该公司公布的第一财季销售额增长了11%，达到6.34亿美元，低于13%的增长预期。虽然这算不上灾难性的业绩，而且巴宝莉高管也表示，公司认为中国市场仍存在“巨大的商机”，但这都无法缓解奢侈品市场的紧张情绪。

    一些分析师和投资者担心，这标志着高端零售市场拐点的到来。在巴宝莉集团公布业绩的同一天，历峰集团（Compagnie Financiere Richemont SA）旗下的卡地亚（Cartier）表示，中国市场对高端手表的需求正在减弱。卡地亚是高端手表与珠宝品牌，中国市场一直是其豪华表畅销的主要动力。

    上周三，卡地亚CEO伯纳德•福纳斯称：“去年，我们取得了非凡的成绩，但今年中国大陆市场的需求有所放缓。”当日，伯纳德•福纳斯发布了使用能源更少的最新款概念手表ID Two。不过，福纳斯与巴宝莉集团对中国消费者的长期前景并不担心。

    他说：“通过与中国消费者交流，你会发现，人们都在期待新领导人上台。届时，中国经济将被注入更多资金，利率也会降低。”

    但这一点仍需时间来证明。经济大萧条后的几年，随着股市上涨，美国市场对奢侈品的需求激增。对于有钱人来说，豪华与奢侈不是空中楼阁，牛市行情提高了富人的消费信心。但股市上涨不足以维持消费者对奢侈品的胃口，于是，过去几个月，奢侈品销量普遍呈现放缓趋势。

    万事达卡顾问公司（MasterCard Advisors ）旗下的数据研究机构、主要跟踪信用卡、现金与支票交易的SpendingPulse5月份报告称，今年4月，除珠宝以外，其他奢侈品销售额同比增长了1.8%，低于第一季度6.7%的同比增速和第四季度13%的同比增速。虽然奢侈品消费近期出现反弹，但SpendingPulse副总裁迈克尔•麦克纳马拉认为，今年奢侈品市场很难重现2011年的辉煌。

    其中，高端珠宝行业尤为脆弱。蒂芬妮（Tiffany & Co.）公布的第一财季利润低于预计，并在5月份调低了全财年销售额与利润目标。公司将此归因于几个因素，其中就包括对华尔街裁员以及亚洲需求减弱的担忧。亚洲一直是全球奢侈品最为重要的市场。

    金融服务公司Stifel Financial执行董事戴维•施伊克表示，随着亚洲与欧洲经济增速放缓，需求减弱的情况将蔓延到全球奢侈品市场。他：“它将影响高收入消费者的信心。”

    中国经济放缓已经给香港零售业带来了巨大压力。曾几何时，大陆消费者在香港排长队抢购奢侈品。然而，5月份，香港奢侈品销售额同比增长8.8%至46亿美元，为2009年9月以来增速最慢的一个月。

    钻石恒久远，但钻石需求的周期却难以预料。

    译者：刘进龙/汪皓

    For the past two years, sales of Louis Vutton bags, Dior perfume and the like have been one of the few bright spots in retailing. But momentum in the world of all that's luxurious has begun to wane some, as evidence builds that even the most resilient consumers might not be able to avoid implications of Europe's ongoing debt crisis combined with a slower growing Chinese economy.

    On Wednesday, British luxury fashion house Burberry Group Plc led luxury-goods stocks lower after reporting sales that missed analysts' estimates. Sales for the first quarter rose 11% to $634 million, short of expectations for a 13% gain. Although the results weren't considered anywhere near disastrous, and a Burberry executive said the company continued to see "an enormous amount of opportunity" in China, it didn't exactly ease jittery markets.

    Some analysts and investors fear this is just the beginning of slowing high-end sales. Burberry's results came the same day Cartier, the luxury watch and jewelry brand owned by Compagnie Financiere Richemont SA, said it is seeing less appetite for its high-end watches in China, a key driver behind the recent boom in luxury watches.

    "After a phenomenal year last year, there's been a bit of a slowdown in mainland China," said Cartier CEO Bernard Fornas, at the company's factory Wednesday as he unveiled its latest innovation, a concept watch, called the ID Two, that uses less energy. Similar to Burberry, Fornas isn't worried about Chinese consumers in the long-run.

    "When you talk to the people over there, they are all waiting for a new president to come in," he added. "That will fuel the economy with fresh money and lower interest rates."

    But that remains to be seen. In the years following the Great Recession, demand for all things luxury in the U.S. surged in tandem with gains in the stock market. For those who could afford it, posh and extravagance wasn't altogether impractical, as rallies in the equities market made affluent consumers more confident about spending. But that hasn't been enough to sustain appetites for life's finer things, as luxury sales have generally slowed down for the past several months.

    In May, MasterCard Advisors SpendingPulse reported that luxury sales, excluding jewelry, climbed 1.8% in April from a year earlier, after gaining 6.7% in the first quarter and 13% in the fourth quarter. Although spending on luxury has bumped up some recently, Michael McNamara, vice president of SpendingPulse, which tracks credit card, cash and check transactions, said robust sales seen in 2011 will be difficult to repeat this year.

    High-end jewlers have been particularly vulnerable. In May, Tiffany & Co. (TIF) cut its fiscal year sales and profit forecast after reporting lower-than-expected first quarter earnings. This was driven by several factors, including concerns about Wall Street layoffs and cooling demand from Asia, a big contributor to the global luxury market.

    David Schick, managing director at Stifel Financial, said he expects that softer sentiments for luxury will carry over globally as economic growth across Asia and Europe slow. "That's going to damage higher income consumer sentiment," he says.

    China's slowing economy has already put pressure on retail sales in Hong Kong, where many Mainland Chinese stand in lines stretched down several city blocks to shop for luxury brands.Sales rose 8.8% in May from a year earlier to $4.6 billion, the smallest gain since September 2009.

    A diamond may be forever, but demand for it has a much less certain lifetime.