英国银行界缘何淡看美国调查渣打洗钱

    不管怎样，根据汇丰计提的拨备金额判断，分析师们估计渣打最终将支付约15亿美元的罚款。这种判断似乎有些武断，但它仍远远低于周二渣打市值蒸发的170亿美元。投资者们担心渣打将被禁止在纽约开展业务，威胁到其美元结算业务。这部分业务占该行总收入约15%-20%。跟踪渣打的股票分析师们认为，该行绝不可能丢了牌照，特别是考虑到正是渣打自己在2010年严厉打击过程中主动向美国政府报告了这些违规行为。

    即便是丢掉了纽约牌照，渣打也不一定要放弃清算业务。它可以换一个州和城市，比如伊利诺伊州的芝加哥、康涅狄格州的斯坦福或北卡罗来纳州的夏洛特，在另一个银行中心设立机构。目前预计还不会发展到这一步，但如有需要，它依然拥有这些选择。

    无论如何，周三早间渣打股价上涨6%，似乎显示市场仍愿意相信这家银行。但这周，该股累计跌幅仍然高达15%。分析人士警告称，这只股票的价格可能会继续承受压力，直到该行支付罚金或计提一大笔拨备。

    目前尚不清楚渣打准备什么时候、或者说是否会采取行动。眼下渣打首席执行官彼得•桑兹似乎并不是很担心。尽管事情闹得沸沸扬扬，但他还是收拾好了行囊，出发去享受夏日假期了。

    译者：早稻米

    In any case, given what HSBC has put aside, analysts believe that Standard Chartered will end up paying a fine of around $1.5 billion. That seems a bit arbitrary, but it is far less than the $17 billion that the market chopped off the bank's market value in Tuesday's trading. Investors are betting that the bank will be barred from doing business in New York, threatening its U.S. dollar clearing operations, which make up an estimated 15%-20% of the bank's total revenues. Equity analysts that follow the bank believe that it will in no way lose its license, especially as it was Standard Chartered that reported the violations voluntarily to the government during the 2010 crackdown.

    But even if it does lose its New York license, it doesn't have to give up its clearing operations. It could set up shop in another banking center in a different city and state, like Chicago, Il., Stamford, CT., or even Charlotte, N.C. It is not expected to get to that point, but there are still options on the table if need be.

    In any case, it looks like the market is ready to give Standard Chartered the benefit of the doubt as the bank's stock moved up 6% in early trading Wednesday in Europe. But the firm's stock is still down 15% for the week. Analysts warn that the stock will probably continue trading at depressed levels until the bank either pays the fine or sets aside a good chunk of money as a provision.

    It is unclear when or if the bank will act. For now, Peter Sands, Standard Chartered Chief Executive doesn't seem too concerned. Despite all the whirlwind, he packed his bags last night and set off for his summer vacation.