移动电商之战：eBay正面对撼亚马逊

    极具个人魅力的eBay首席执行官梅格•惠特曼于2008年离开该公司。eBay随后开始陷入麻烦，这家电子商务巨头的业务开始下滑。eBay的卖家仍然依赖该网站，但他们开始厌倦该公司不断提高收费的做法。他们大声甚至是犀利的表达自己的不满。当该公司的财务业绩开始受到影响（这在一定程度上是因为该公司计划不周，斥资25亿美元收购Skype），投资者们也开始感到厌烦。eBay股价暴跌，在2009年降至约10美元的低点。

    但后来情况大变。到2009年年底，eBay的收入从上年的85亿美元增至87亿美元。而且尽管麻烦缠身，该公司仍然获得24亿美元的利润。2011年，eBay大获成功，收入达到117亿美元，而利润更是高达32亿美元，另华尔街震惊不已。eBay的股价也出现回升，从年初至今已大涨51％，达到45.85美元。去年，eBay的股价上涨了56％。eBay似乎打破了互联网公司的宿命。

    那么，究竟发生了什么？

    答案是iPhone。巴克莱资本（Barclays Capital）分析师安东尼•迪克莱蒙特在致投资者的最新报告中写道：“eBay搭上了移动互联网的顺风车。这股风潮为eBay带来了源源不断的客流，而其价格和利润却没有损失（对于在线广告则是灾难）。”确实如此，根据尼尔森（Nielsen）的调查数据，整个6月份，47%的美国智能手机用户（约4,500万）使用了手机购物程序。其中，1,300万独立用户访问了eBay以购买商品，亚马逊（Amazon）紧随其后，吸引到了1,200万独立用户。

    尼尔森数据发布前一个月，eBay曾向投资者报告称，公司在移动领域的投资将获得丰厚的回报。eBay总裁兼首席执行官约翰•多纳霍在上月的营收会议上表示：“我们预计eBay和贝宝（PayPal）在2012年的移动交易量将分别创下100亿美元新高，是2011年的两倍以上。移动交易和支付发展极为惊人，而这一切在几年前甚至还不存在。”

    贝宝发展喜人。eBay表示贝宝的活跃注册账号数在上月已达1.132亿，比去年增加了13%。上季度，贝宝营收增长了26%，达到14亿美元，几乎可以媲美eBay的电子商务业务，后者上季度贡献了16亿美元的营收。

    当然，eBay曾经是世界顶尖的互联网公司。竞争对手们已经把目光瞄准了eBay的核心业务。说到消费购物和移动领域，亚马逊自然是eBay最大的竞争对手。在移动电子商务应用程序使用量上，亚马逊紧随eBay，排名第二，用户们正在疯狂使用这家电子商务巨头的移动应用。更重要的是，亚马逊市场允许商家们直接向消费者销售自己产品。（这些产品有时是全新的，有些则是二手货。）

    亚马逊和eBay都在争夺同样的用户。不过亚马逊的资本更为雄厚。该公司去年营收480亿美元，利润6.31亿美元。换句话说，亚马逊非常庞大。迄今为止，还没有哪家独立公司能在营收或知名度上赶上亚马逊。

    贝宝则是eBay的核心资产。不过，许多公司正在试图挑战贝宝，成为支付市场的主流厂商。例如，谷歌（Google）推出了Checkout——类似贝宝的在线支付平台。该公司试图引入近场通信技术，将Checkout与谷歌钱包相结合，打造新的移动支付方案。

    尽管如此，分析人士不一定认为eBay将在未来数月和数年遭遇困境。投资公司Baird分析师科林•塞巴斯蒂安上月将eBay目标股价从每股45美元提高至47美元，塞巴斯蒂安在告知投资者该变动的报告中写道，eBay“在移动商务和支付领域仍属于早期领导者，其他有些公司根本尚未站稳脚跟。”在塞巴斯蒂安之前，伯恩斯坦研究公司分析师卡洛斯•克金格也盛赞eBay，并在上月的一份研究报告中写道，贝宝“拥有强有力的、难以挑战的在线支付专营权”。

    译者：项航

    The trouble began with the departure of a charismatic chief. After CEO Meg Whitman stepped down from her post at eBay in 2008, the online commerce giant's business seemed to sour. eBay sellers, while still reliant upon the site, grew tired of the company's penchant for raising fees. They became vocal, even trenchant, in their discontent. When the company's financial performance started to suffer, in part because of an ill-conceived, $2.5 billion acquisition of Skype, investors grew weary. The company's shares plummeted, hitting a low of about $10 in 2009.

    How things have changed. By the end of that year, eBay (EBAY) was able to grow revenue to $8.7 billion, up from $8.5 billion in the previous year. And despite its troubles, it still delivered a tidy $2.4 billion profit. In 2011, eBay shocked Wall Street with an exceedingly successful year, generating $11.7 billion in income and a $3.2 billion profit. eBay's stock has swung back, as well, jumping 51% since the beginning of the year to $45.85. In the last year, eBay shares are up 56%. eBay seems to have beat the Internet curse.

    So, what happened?

    Blame it on the iPhone. "Mobile is a tailwind for eBay, as the medium is allowing for incremental volume with no pricing or margin degradation (which plagues online ads)," Barclays Capital (BCS) analyst Anthony DiClemente wrote recently in a research note to investors. Indeed. During June, 47% of all U.S. smartphone owners -- about 45 million people – used a shopping application on their handset, according to Nielsen. Out of those, 13 million unique users accessed eBay to buy products. Amazon (AMZN), which attracted 12 million unique users, came in second place.

    That news comes just a month after eBay reported to investors that its mobile efforts are paying off in a big way. "We now expect eBay and PayPal mobile to each transact $10 billion in volume in 2012 -- that's more than double 2011, a staggering surge in mobile shopping and payments on devices that did not exist just a few years ago," eBay president and CEO John Donahoe said last month in an earnings statement.

    PayPal is surging. eBay reported last month that the service has 113.2 million active registered accounts, representing a 13% gain over the prior year. PayPal revenue was up 26% to $1.4 billion last quarter, putting it within striking distance of besting eBay's e-commerce business, which tallied $1.6 billion in revenue during the period.

    Of course, eBay has been on top of the Web world before. And its competitors have their sights set on its core businesses. When it comes to consumer purchases and the mobile world, Amazon is easily eBay's largest competitor. And Amazon is hot on eBay's heels for mobile e-commerce app usage; shoppers actively use the e-retail giant's mobile application. What's more, the Amazon Marketplace allows vendors to sell their products directly to consumers. (Sometimes, those products are brand new, sometimes used.)

    Amazon and eBay are gunning for the same consumer dollars. And Amazon has plenty of resources. The company last year generated a $631 million profit on $48 billion in revenue. In other words, Amazon is huge. And so far, not a single company has come close to matching it in sales or popularity.

    PayPal, meanwhile, is vital to eBay's business. But a slew of companies have designs on challenging it -- and becoming major players in the payments market. Google (GOOG), for example, already has Checkout, an online PayPal competitor, and is trying to jump on the near-field-communication trend with Google Wallet, a mobile-payment solution.

    Still, analysts don't necessarily believe eBay will suffer through tough times in the coming months and years. Baird analyst Colin Sebastian, who raised his eBay price target from $45 to $47 last month, wrote in a note to investors announcing the change that the company "remains an early leader in mobile commerce and payments, while some other companies struggle to gain a foothold." Sebastian's comments followed similarly glowing remarks by Bernstein Research analyst Carlos Kirjner, who wrote in a research note last month that PayPal "has a strong and hard-to-challenge online payments franchise."