奥巴马期待决战

    当年，奥巴马首次当选美国总统可谓轰动一时，他不仅拯救了美国汽车行业，稳定了风雨飘摇的华尔街，并且提出一系列大规模经济刺激方案，把美国经济从崩溃的边缘拉了回来。如果奥巴马能再次当选，这些经历或许会对他有所帮助。因为，他将会面临一大堆政策冲击，也就是所谓的财政悬崖，这些政策冲击甚至都不用等到他再次当选就会来临。

    潜在的危机是，美国联邦政府政治圈子的形成。去年，国会削减赤字协议的谈判破裂，之后双方都在期待形成这样一个圈子。但与去年夏天因债务上限引发的冲突不同，当时一小部分众议院共和党人愿意美国违约，以强制进一步深化削减开支，而现在政府则是占据了上风。这一次，共和党人成了请愿者，他们呼吁避免对家庭收入250,000美元以上阶层增收收入所得税，并呼吁反对预定的国防开支削减方案。

    而美国总统则把共和党人的请求看成一个机会，希望解决一些长期以来存在的问题。奥巴马希望利用自己的影响力完成三件事：彻底的赤字削减协议；一项大规模基础设施投资和其他支出，为经济复苏增添动力；另外一个就是简化、改革美国税法。

    “人们需要明白，这是一个机会，”在狭小的白宫西厢办公室内，奥巴马高级经济顾问吉恩•斯珀林一边对我说，一边大口嚼着从自动售货机里买的脆谷乐（Cheerios）。（白宫允许个别高级助理接受采访，但不包括总统本人。）“从历史记录来看，当所有人都感觉，财政问题的紧迫性就像有一只手枪顶在自己脑门上时，大规模预算协议就会获得通过。”

    奥巴马的首要任务应该是制定一个长期计划，阻止联邦政府的赤字趋势。美国政府希望在未来十年内削减赤字4万亿美元，而要实现这个目标，主要通过对高收入人群增税获得的1.5万亿美元新收入，以及封堵税法漏洞。但奥巴马总统到底会采取哪种方式挤压应享权益开支，目前仍然存在疑问。去年夏天，奥巴马对共和党做出让步，比如提高联邦医疗保险的法定年龄，以及回笼社保收益等。如今奥巴马轻易摆脱了这些妥协措施。相反，在最近提出的预算中，他提出要控制医保开支的增长，则需减少对供应商的支出。但白宫经济顾问认为，不论最终采取哪种形式，这样一份协议都会给公司带来足够的信心，启动新一轮招聘活动和投资热潮。

    此外，奥巴马总统还在力推通过一系列雄心勃勃的开支提案，其中包括4,470亿美元的针对性减税，基础设施开支，以及帮助各州和地方政府执行所谓《美国就业法案》（American Jobs Act）等，这些将成为奥巴马增加美国人就业计划的核心。去年九月，奥巴马公布法案时，独立经济分析师预测，该法案可以提供190万个工作岗位，并带动GDP增长两个百分点。奥巴马决定贯彻这项法案表明他的作风已经开始转变，也就是说他开始放弃妥协策略，而是与共和党展开明刀明枪的对抗。

    去年夏天，奥巴马与共和党纠缠不清，把时间都花在了争论财政紧缩的时间表上。奥巴马的助手称，总统为此感到非常沮丧。针对债务协议的那些令人难以忍受的谈判让他感觉自己被忽视了，因为这让他无法在经济低迷时期重新关注就业问题。为了给疲弱的经济恢复提供动力，奥巴马的团队提出了新的提案，在这个过程中，奥巴马告诉他们“不要闭门造车”。他的意思是：不要预先设想折中方案，以便赢得共和党的支持，就像他们对第一次刺激方案的那种支持。七月底，奥巴马总统与众议院议长约翰•贝纳的谈判破裂后，他便一头扎到确定新法案详细内容的过程当中。斯珀林说：“说奥巴马总统有一种强烈的、被压抑的、解决就业问题的愿望，其实还是低估他了。其实，他已经彻底爆发了。”

    九月份，奥巴马在国会联席会议上提出了一揽子计划，并在美国四处游说，希望获得支持，但除了减少了2%的工资税和增加失业津贴外，国会山没有做出其他任何让步。现在，白宫相信，在预算谈判中，白宫的提案有机会起死回生。

    译者：刘进龙/汪皓

    President Obama started his first term with a bang, simultaneously engineering an auto industry rescue, stabilizing a teetering Wall Street, and negotiating a massive stimulus package to wrench the economy back from the brink. The experience may be useful if he is reelected. That's because he'll face the pileup of policy shocks known as the fiscal cliff even before he can be sworn in again.

    The looming crisis is a Beltway creation that both sides have anticipated since last year, when congressional negotiations toward a deficit-cutting accord imploded. But unlike last summer's clash over the debt ceiling, when a faction of House Republicans was willing to let the U.S. default in order to force deeper spending cuts, the administration now has the upper hand. This time around, Republicans are the petitioners, eager to avert both a tax increase on income above $250,000 and scheduled cuts to defense spending.

    And the President is looking to use the challenge as a chance to tackle long-standing problems. Obama wants to apply his leverage to accomplish three things: a sweeping deficit-reduction agreement, a major investment in infrastructure and other spending to give the economic recovery a jolt, and a simplifying rewrite of our tax code.

    "People need to understand this can be an opportunity," Gene Sperling, the President's top economic adviser, tells me as he munches vending-machine Cheerios in his cramped West Wing office. (The White House made several senior aides available for interviews, but not the President.) "Historically, major budget agreements have often taken place when everyone felt there was a fiscal gun to their heads."

    Obama's first priority will be a long-term plan for stemming the federal government's tide of red ink. The administration hopes to secure $4 trillion in deficit reduction over the next decade, in part by raising $1.5 trillion in new revenue from higher taxes on upper incomes and closing loopholes in the tax code. But exactly how the President would squeeze entitlement spending remains an open question. Obama has walked away from concessions he offered the GOP last summer, including raising the eligibility age for Medicare and ratcheting back Social Security benefits. Instead, in his most recent budget, he proposes saving on health care programs mostly by cutting payments to providers. Whatever its final shape, however, such a deal alone would give business enough confidence to unleash a wave of hiring and investment, White House economic advisers argue.

    The President will also be pushing for passage of an ambitious set of spending proposals -- based on a $447 billion package of targeted tax cuts, infrastructure spending, and aid to state and local governments dubbed the American Jobs Act -- that remains the backbone of his plan to put people back to work. When Obama unveiled the bill last September, independent economic analysts predicted it could supply up to 1.9 million jobs and add two points to the GDP. The decision to pursue it marked an inflection in his presidency -- the moment he abandoned a strategy of accommodation in favor of what he viewed as a clarifying confrontation with Republicans.

    Obama had spent the previous summer tangling with the GOP over its austerity agenda. It was frustrating for the President, aides say. He felt diminished by the grinding talks toward a debt agreement because they prevented him from getting back on a jobs message as the economy stumbled. As his team worked behind the scenes crafting new proposals to prop up the flagging recovery, Obama told them not to "self-edit." The message: Don't pre-negotiate compromises to entice Republican support, as they had on the first stimulus. When the President's talks with House Speaker John Boehner finally fell apart in late July, he dived into the process of finalizing the details of the new bill. "The notion that the President had a heavy pent-up demand to get out there on jobs was an understatement. He was fired up," Sperling says.

    Obama unveiled the package to a joint session of Congress in September, then barnstormed the country in support of it, but aside from extensions of the 2% payroll tax cut and unemployment benefits, it didn't budge on Capitol Hill. The White House now believes it will have a chance to revive his proposals in the budget negotiations.