租车公司赫兹收购案一波三折

    通常情况下，如果并购之后在本地市场仍有三四家竞争对手，这样的并购一般都能获得监管部门的批准。但如果竞争对手只剩两家，就会引起监管部门的严重担忧。汽车租赁市场的竞争性原本就非常有限，因此，赫兹与Dollar/Thrifty合并之后，至少在好几个地方市场将出现只有它们两家公司竞争的情形。

    不过就在昨天，为了提高投资者对收购的信心，赫兹宣布将出售旗下的休闲旅行子公司优势租车。与此同时，公司还表示，为了获得监管部门批准，公司已经做好了其他让步准备。但它并未透露让步的具体内容，以及合并后的公司将为此付出的代价。不过，需要注意的是，虽然出售优势看起来已经是不小的让步，但实际上并非如此。优势本身在美国国内汽车租赁市场所占的份额不足1%，所以赫兹放弃优势不会有太大用处。据彭博新闻社（Bloomberg News）报道，优势业务的售价只有1,600万美元，这也证明这项项业务根本达不到赫兹声称的价值水平。

    另外，即便收购获得政府批准，赫兹也有可能被要求剥离部分业务或做出妥协，为区域性汽车租赁公司创造公平的竞争环境。而这么做需要付出高昂的成本。如果政府态度强硬，赫兹可能被迫让步。从长期来看，可能远远高于合并带来的成本协同效益。之前，公司曾声称合并之后每年可以实现1.6亿美元的成本协同效益。此外，赫兹和市场均深信不疑的收入协同效益也会大打折扣。

    问题还是在于，赫兹能否实现有意义的收入协同效益，来补偿收购Dollar Thrifty所支付的溢价。这一点很大程度上取决于汽车租赁行业未来的发展。过去几年，汽车租赁行业收入经历了两位数的增长。但由于经济陷入停滞，形势可能急转直下。经过几个季度的强劲增长之后，今年第二季度，Dollar Thrifty公司公布的收入情况与去年同期持平。这还是在公司最大限度削减成本的基础上才取得的成绩。

    影响汽车租赁行业未来收入的另外一个因素是近期二手车价格的下跌。上个月，二手车价格比去年同期出现下跌，三年来尚属首次。而汽车租赁公司经常需要转卖车辆，因此受到二手车市场的制约。据摩根士丹利公司（Morgan Stanley）披露，二手车价格1%的波动对汽车租赁公司税前利润的影响幅度便在10%左右。预计二手车价格下降的趋势将一直延续到年底，这对于需要证明此项交易价值的赫兹来说无异于雪上加霜。当然，这一切的前提是交易能够顺利完成。

    现在存在这么多的不确定因素，也就难怪之前公布的并购协议条款会如此慷慨。据报道，协议规定，Dollar公司有30天时间可自由接受其他出价，随时可以中止协议，无需支付补偿金。这要么表明赫兹与Dollar Thrifty信心十足，认定交易必将顺利完成；要么意味着两家公司底气不足，提前给彼此留好了退路。无论如何，如果赫兹希望公司股票继续保持近期的势头，未来几个月，它肯定得好好向投资者解释一番。

    译者：刘进龙/汪皓

    Regulators will usually approve mergers if it leaves three or four competitors in a local market, but they start to show grave concern when it gets down to two. Given the limited competition already in the car rental market, there are several local markets where a Hertz and Dollar/Thrifty merger would lead to just such a scenario.

    Nevertheless, Hertz tried to instill confidence in the deal yesterday by announcing the sale of its leisure-focused Advantage subsidiary. At the same time, the company said it is prepared to make other concessions to get the deal past regulators, but stopped short of saying what those concessions could be and how much revenue it could cost the combined company. But it should be noted that while jettisoning Advantage seems like a big concession, it really isn't. Advantage on its own makes up less that 1% of the domestic car rental market, so its loss doesn't move the needle much. Hertz apparently sold the business for a piddling $16 million, according to Bloomberg News, which means that the business wasn't worth that much anyway.

    But even if the government approves the merger, Hertz may be asked to divest some of its operations or make accommodations to level the playing field for regional car rental companies. This could get very expensive on many levels. If the government plays hardball, Hertz could be asked to make concessions that in the long run could far outweigh the $160 million in annual cost synergies that the company claims it can squeeze out of a tie-up. It would also decrease any revenue synergies that both Hertz and the market believe could be in the cards.

    The question still remains as to whether or not the company could achieve meaningful revenue synergies to account for the premium Hertz just paid to absorb Dollar Thrifty. Part of that rests on the future of the car rental business. The last few years have been great, with double-digit percentage increases in revenue, but that could be coming to a swift end as the economy stalls. Dollar Thrifty reported flat revenue growth for the second quarter of this year compared with the same time last year after posting several strong quarters of growth. It actually made its numbers by slashing costs to the bone.

    Also impacting future revenues is the recent dip in used car prices. Last month was the first month in three years that used car prices reported a decrease in value from the same time last year. That's important because rental car companies are a slave to the used car market as they constantly turnover cars. In fact a 1% move in used prices impacts the pretax profit of rental car companies by 10%, according to Morgan Stanley. The decline in used car values is expected to continue through the year, which will make it that much harder for Hertz to justify this deal – that's, of course, if it ever actually gets done.

    With so many unknowns it is no wonder that the deal has an extremely liberal merger agreement. Dollar reportedly has 30 days to freely entertain other bids and could walk away from the deal at any time without paying a breakup fee. This means that Hertz and Dollar Thrifty are either super confident that the deal will get done or are so unsure that they built an escape hatch. Either way, Hertz will have a lot of explaining to do in the next few months if it intends on keeping the recent pop in its stock.