防务超级大合并遭遇政治阻力

    欧洲宇航防务集团的管理层现在一定觉得收购英国宇航系统公司是获得美国军方大单最简单和最有效的方法。虽然这笔交易能够帮助实现收入平衡，并获得重要的美国市场机会，人们仍然担忧在各国政府都削减军费开支的情况下，欧洲宇航防务集团为何还要收购一家单一业务的防务公司。市场也有类似顾虑，周三欧洲宇航防务集团的股价下跌了6%. 难道欧洲宇航防务集团不知道政府开支削减或者财政悬崖吗？（如果两党不能就国债和预算达成协议），明年一月军事预算可能被自动削减5%到10%，为什么要在这个时候硬挤进美国市场？

    眼光需要放长远一点。对欧洲宇航防务集团来说，在美国国防预算中分得一杯羹，即使预算缩减，即使份额不大，也好过欧洲本土市场的惨淡。因为和美国不同，欧洲想要削减防务开支时总是说到做到。举个例子，欧洲宇航防务集团的防务部门凯希典公司（Cassidian）在欧元危机深化前的2009年获得83亿欧元订单。而在接下来的两年订单减半，2010年为43亿欧元，2011年仅为42亿欧元。

    今年美国的军事预算为7,110亿美元。即使开支自动削减真的发生，明年一月预算从今年的水平下降15%，防务预算仍然高达6,040亿美元，大约是法国和德国今年（军事）预算之和的5.5倍。

    所以大家都很清楚，即使开支削减的幅度史无前例，美国的军事预算仍然是一笔大生意。但欧洲宇航防务集团能分到这块大蛋糕吗？美国军方是否愿意让这家德法公司替代某家主要供应商，这还是个问题。虽然英国宇航系统公司来自英国，并非本土公司，但美军和英军的密切关系可以追溯到第一次世界大战。两者的盟友关系在二战期间进一步得到巩固，一直到现在都非常牢固，最近两军还在阿富汗和伊拉克紧密合作。虽然德法两国也是北约成员，美军与法军或德军的关系就只是泛泛之交而已。欧洲宇航防务集团在新闻稿中暗示，公司会采取必要的措施将英国宇航系统公司的美国业务分割开来，但人们仍然怀疑它是否足以打消美军的疑虑，同意这笔收购。

    就算军方松口，欧洲宇航防务集团仍然需要说服那些来自其竞争对手的地盘的议员。公司需要向议员证明，欧洲宇航防务集团并未得到德法政府的补贴，并未通过削价获得和美国公司不公平竞争的优势。考虑到和空客之间在商业航空领域的血海深仇，波音公司显然不喜欢欧洲宇航防务集团。CEO吉姆•迈克纳尼昨天告诉记者，波音不会受到欧洲宇航防务集团和英国宇航系统公司 合并的威胁。话虽如此，如果有可能的话，他一定希望这次合并泡汤。在超大型客机和单通道客机方面，空客正在侵吞波音的市场，所以波音一点都不想看到欧洲宇航防务集团再来抢夺美国军方的大合同。

    这笔交易所牵涉到的主要各方是否准备为其大开绿灯呢？答案并不清楚。（除了美方，）还需要得到与两家公司有业务来往的主要国家军方的同意，其中包括但不限于：沙特阿拉伯、澳大利亚、西班牙以及英国（这一点很明显）。（但愿）欧洲宇航防务集团在昨天宣布交易前已经获得德法两国政府的支持。但考虑到交易后两国在欧洲宇航防务集团的股份会被稀释，也许在美国有机会做决定之前，巴黎和柏林政府就已经否决这笔交易了。

    Well, it is all perspective. For EADS, a piece of the US defense budget, even a small piece of a shrinking pie, is better than the markets back home in Europe. That's because, unlike in the U.S., when the Europeans want to cut defense spending, they actually do it. For example, Cassidia, the defense arm of EADS, had 8.3 billion euros in orders in 2009 before the euro crisis started to get bad. In 2010 and 2011, orders were sliced in half, with 4.3 billion euros in 2010 and 4.2 billion euros in 2011.

    Now consider that the US military budget this year is $711 billion. Say that sequestration actually happens and the budget is cut by 15% in January from this year's level. That would mean that the defense budget would still be $604 billion – around five and half times what France and Germany's budget are this year, combined.

    So it is pretty clear that even with the deepest cuts there is a lot of money out there. But can EADS ever grab a piece of that big American military pie? It is questionable as to whether the US military will be comfortable allowing a Franco-German conglomerate to take over one of its major suppliers. While BAE is a British firm, and clearly foreign, the US military has a much stronger relationship with the British Armed forces going back all the way to WWI. That relationship was cemented in WWII and has been relatively strong ever since, serving closely in both Afghanistan and Iraq. The US military just doesn't have that sort of relationship with the French or German military, despite the fact that they are all in NATO. EADS alluded in its release that it would take necessary steps to ring-fence BAE's operations in the US, but it's highly doubtful that would be enough for the US military to sign off on the agreement.

    But say the military does sign off; EADS would then have to sweet talk a lot of congressmen in a lot of districts where its competitors do business. It will need to convince lawmakers that it doesn't receive subsidies from the French and German governments, which would allow EADS to undercut US aerospace firms unfairly. Boeing clearly has no love for EADS given the blood feud between them in commercial aviation. Jim McNerney, Boeing's chief executive, told reporters yesterday that his company wasn't threatened by a potential EADS/BAE tie-up. While he might not be threatened, he most surely would like to avoid it if possible. Airbus is eating Boeing's lunch in both the superjumbo and single-aisle aircraft divisions – the last thing it needs is EADS taking swiping some of its big US military contracts.

    It is unclear if any of the major constituencies involved in this deal are ready to give it the green light. The militaries of every major country that does business with either company will need to sign off on the deal, including, but not limited to, Saudi Arabia, Australia, Spain and, of course, the UK. EADS (hopefully) had already secured the support of the French and German governments before the deal was announced yesterday. But given how their stake in EADS would be diluted in the merger, it may be Paris and Berlin that end up crushing this deal before the US ever gets a chance to see it.