惠普和IBM：一个未来，两条道路

    惠普在硬件上投入重注，认为其最终将获得成功。IBM则将赌注压在已被证明比硬件投入要少的软件上，同时采取广泛撒网的策略。但这并不意味着IBM不愿进行并购：该公司表示，从现在到2015年，将拿出200亿美元进行收购，超过过去10年并购额的总和。

    这意味着，IBM认为它的大多数投资应该放在刚崭露头角、具有发展潜力的软件公司上。惠普当然也会寻找好的软件公司进行投资，不过，它只是希望平衡一下过去几年对硬件公司的投资额。这是纯软件和软硬结合两大策略的争议之处。

    惠普的赌注充满风险，因为科技界越来越由软件驱动。硬件一直是、而且永远是技术领域的重要组成部分，不过在个人电脑、服务器、交换机和路由器等诸多领域，软件提高了生产效率、并不断推动创新。硬件虽然也在不断进步，但越来越被视为利润稀薄的日用品。

    而软件长期以来一直是利润丰厚的业务。虽然惠普经过多年并购，在营收增幅上已超越IBM，但IBM的利润更丰厚。去年，IBM的运营利润达到27%而惠普只有8%。

    这就是IBM和惠普为何境况不同。两家公司新任首席执行官面临的最大难题是，如何确立公司未来的发展方向？管理层应该如何为公司出谋划策？

    罗曼提表示，将继续执行前任制定的战略，但愿意在必要时更大胆一些。惠特曼则坦承惠普正面临着挑战，但自己能迎难而上。不久前，惠特曼否决了投资者要求分拆惠普PC业务的请求。上周，她再次重申，惠普将进军不断增长的智能手机市场。

    无论全球经济何时转暖，两家公司都有发展空间。IBM告诉企业，在他们向新科技时代进军的道路上，IBM能提供咨询、基础设施和软件专业技术。惠普也号称能提供这些服务，但它还有解决方案——从咨询和应用软件到个人电脑和智能手机，几乎包罗万象，因此，惠普的服务似乎更为全面。两家公司还要与甲骨文（Oracle）和戴尔（Dell）等公司展开激烈竞争。

    两家公司前景如何？金融市场已经给出了不同答案。IBM股票今年上涨了13%。惠普下跌了29%。IBM市值为2,360亿美元，惠普市值仅为360亿美元，不到IBM的1/6。

    不过，在考虑这些数据之前，我们还应该看看被许多人认为能决定科技企业未来的一项数据。过年三年，IBM的研发投入为180亿美元，为同期营收额的6.0%。惠普的投入只有90亿美元，占营收比重为2.5%。着眼未来意味着可能会减少并购而增加研发费用。现在，两家公司都在为光明的未来作准备，战略应该是非常值得关注的因素。

    译者：项航

    HP paid big for its bets on hardware, wagering it would win out in the end. IBM, meanwhile, made lots of smaller bets on software, which has proven to be a cheaper business to start-up than hardware. That doesn't mean IBM won't pay out for acquisitions: The company has indicated it will spend $20 billion on deals through 2015 -- more than it has spent in the last 10 years.

    What it means is IBM believes its big investments will be in software companies that are only starting to show their stuff. HP, of course, will also be looking for good software investments, but it wants to counterbalance them against some of the hardware companies that it bought over the past several years. It's a debate between pure software versus a mix of software and hardware.

    HP's bet is risky because the world of tech is more and more driven by software. Hardware is and will always be an important component of tech, but in many areas -- personal computers, servers, switches and routers -- software is driving efficiencies and innovation. Hardware, while ever improving, is increasingly seen as more of a commodity business that delivers low margins.

    Software, of course, has long been a high-margin business. Even though HP, through its years of acquisitions, has seen its revenue grow faster than IBM's, it is IBM that has enjoyed the bigger profits. Last year, IBM's operating profit was 27% of its revenue, versus an 8% margin for HP.

    That's where IBM and HP stand today. The bigger question for their new CEO's is, where will these companies go? Where can their leaders take them?

    Rometty has indicated she will build on the strategies set down by her predecessors, although she is willing to put a bold stamp on the company if that's what it needs. Whitman has been frank about the challenges facing HP, yet willing to make tough calls on its future. Whitman resisted demands from investors to spin-off HP's PC business. And this week, she reiterated her desire to make the company a player in the growing market for smartphones.

    There is room for both companies to thrive, whenever the global economy finally improves. IBM will tell companies it's got the consulting, infrastructure and software expertise they need to push into the brave new era of tech. HP will say it offers the same, but it has the soup-to-nuts solution -- from consultants to apps to PCs and smartphones -- that's even more comprehensive. Both will battle other giants in the space, like Oracle (ORCL) and Dell (DELL).

    Will both thrive? The financial markets measure a discrepancy. IBM is up 13% so far this year. HP is down 29%. IBM has a market cap of $236 billion. HP is valued at $36 billion, or less than a sixth of its rival's value.

    But before you consider any of those statistics, consider the single metric that many people believe says more about a tech giant's future than anything. IBM has spent $18 billion in research and development over the last three years, or 6.0% of its revenue in that period. HP has spent $9 billion in the same period, or 2.5% of its revenue. To plan for the future may mean spending less on high-ticket acquisitions and more on research and development. As both companies steer toward a brighter tomorrow, that strategy seems one well worth betting on.