Zynga反弹还有戏

    Zynga创始人兼董事长马克•平克斯持有公司50.15%的有表决权股份，并且自IPO以来，他已经几次表示无意出售公司。但分析人士和股东们则表示，如果公司无法执行增长计划、并在明年至少连续两个财季交出像样的业绩，那它就应该设法出售。

    贝雅投资公司（Robert W. Baird & Co.）的资深研究分析师科林•塞巴斯蒂安称，Zynga需要考虑战略性备选方案。他近期调高了对该公司的评级，认为它能跑赢大盘，并对公司仍能恢复元气抱谨慎乐观。巴迪亚说：“如果他们不想出售的原因是因为自认为还有很多事要做，那我们确实没看出来这一点。如果他们打算说不，就必须拿出充分的理由来。”

    自上市以来，Zynga就风波不断，屡屡陷于各种失策之举和问题中：财务季报未达预期，两款主打游戏人气骤减，8月份以来至少6名高管突然离职，超支花费2亿美元收购游戏公司OMGPOP【该公司开发的“我画你猜”（"Draw Something"）游戏在收购后开始人气下降】引发市场担忧，无不对投资者敲响了警钟。此外，还有一系列诉讼，至少有6家律所正在对包括平克斯在内的公司高管在今年4月初抛售价值约为6亿美元的股票一事进行调查——此举发生在禁售期到期和股价腰斩之前。这些诉讼还指控公司“没有如实陈述并/或不予披露有关其业务和财务状况的实际不利事实。”

    总的来说，这些问题让Zynga在试图重拾增长势头时，股票身负重压，不得不逆风而行。巴迪亚称：“我们发现，Zynga的股价近期始终就处于停滞状态。”

    Zynga需要一种催化剂来刺激增长，拉升股价。一款更让中间核心（mid-core）玩家、而非休闲玩家喜爱的主打游戏正是这种催化剂。近期，Zynga又推出了新的休闲游戏，比如《主厨乐园》（ChefVille）和《开心农场2》。但是中间核心游戏才能吸引更多忠实玩家，因为他们通常会花更多时间打游戏——因此也才能比休闲游戏带来更多的收入。塞巴斯蒂安称：“Zynga已经发展到了一个饱和点，他们需要使自己的游戏更加多样化。”最近，Zynga收购了专门开发中间核心游戏的游戏工作室“A Bit Lucky”，已经流露出进军这一细分市场的动向。

    不过，Zynga在中间核心游戏市场上还要面临激烈的竞争。这种竞争来自一批经验老到的公司，如艺电公司（Electronic Arts），以及一些较小的公司如Kixeye, Kabam和Rumble Games。实际上，得知Zynga的一些高管正打算离职后，Kixeye立刻在视频网站Youtube上贴出了广告，要挖走Zynga的人才。广告里写道：“如果你是个超级游戏开发高手，不想把才华浪费在点击奶牛、让虚拟宠物反刍上，我们这里可能有适合你的职位……”

    Zynga还能在其他领域实现增长，即开发移动游戏，发展Zynga.com平台，同时在全球推广其在线纸牌游戏。

    Zynga打算进军移动市场以及近期推出Zynga.com平台，目的都是减少对Facebook的依赖。最近一个财季，Zynga的营收中有87%来自Facebook。巴迪亚表示，在与Facebook的合约于2015年5月到期前，Zynga设法提高移动领域和Zynga.com平台的产能至关重要。否则到了那时，Facebook就可能修改协议条款，压低Zynga收入分成比例。目前，Zynga在Facebook平台上销售虚拟商品的收入的30%要分给Facebook。

    Zynga founder and chief executive Mark Pincus holds 50.15% of the voting shares in the company and has indicated several times since the company's IPO that he has no interest in selling out. But analysts and shareholders say if the company is unable to execute on its growth plan and deliver solid quarterly results for at least two consecutive quarters over the next year, the company should field offers.

    They would need to look at strategic alternatives says Colin Sebastian, senior research analyst at Robert W. Baird & Co., who recently upgraded the company to outperform on cautious optimism that the company can still turn itself around. "If the reason they don't want to sell is because they're under the impression they have a lot going on, then certainly we haven't seen it," says Bhatia. "If they're going to say no, they would have to have a good reason for it."

    The company has had a stormy history since going public from missteps and other issues: quarterly earnings shortfalls, waning popularity for its FarmVille and CityVille games, the abrupt resignations of at least six senior executives since August, and concerns the company overpaid for its $200 million acquisition of OMGPOP -- a company whose "Draw Something" game began tanking in popularity after the purchase -- have all raised red flags for investors. There's also been a flurry of lawsuits, with at least six different law firms investigating concerns senior company executives, including Pincus, sold about $600 million in shares in early April -- before the lockup period expired and before the stock took a 50% nosedive. The suits also allege the company "misrepresented and/or failed to disclose materially adverse facts about its business and financial condition."

    Together, these issues have created an overhang on the stock and headwinds as the company tries to re-ignite growth. "We see the company and its stock treading water in the near-term," says Bhatia.

    Zynga needs a catalyst to kickstart growth and its stock price. A hit game, preferably for mid-core rather than casual gamers, could be one such catalyst. Zynga recently launched new casual games, such as ChefVille and FarmVille 2. But mid-core games tend to attract more dedicated and loyal gamers who usually spend more time playing games -- and therefore can potentially generate more revenue than casual games. "They've kind of hit some saturation point and they need to diversify the style of games that they make," says Sebastian. Zynga has indicated an interest in moving into this niche as it recently acquired gaming studio "A Bit Lucky" which makes mid-core games.

    Still, Zynga faces plenty of competition in the mid-core market from such seasoned firms as Electronic Arts (ERTS), and smaller firms, such as Kixeye, Kabam and Rumble Games. In fact, when news that senior executives were heading for the exits at Zynga, Kixeye put an ad on Youtube aimed at poaching Zynga's workers, stating "If you're a rockstar game maker and you don't want to put your talents toward cow clicking and virtual pet cudding, we might have a place for you..."

    Other areas where Zynga could generate growth are through mobile gaming, its Zynga.com platform, and expansion of its online poker game internationally.

    Zynga's expansion into the mobile market and recent rollout of its Zynga.com platform are aimed at lessening its reliance on Facebook. Zynga received 87% of its revenue through the Facebook platform in the latest quarter. Bhatia says it's critical the company ramp up its mobile and zynga platforms before its deal with Facebook expires in May 2015. At that time, it's possible Facebook could alter the terms of its agreement with Zynga that could potentially lower Zynga's revenue share in the deal. Currently, Facebook gets 30% of the revenue Zynga gets through the sale of virtual goods on the Facebook platform.