苹果能不能攻下中国

    作为苹果公司（Apple）内敛而言辞温和的首席执行官，蒂姆•库克总是倾向于为中国市场及苹果公司在其中的地位大唱赞歌。

    去年，一位分析师问他，中国是否会取代美国、成为苹果最大的市场，库克几乎是不假思索地冒出一句：“这个市场能发展到哪一步呢？”，这句回应指的是中国市场的发展前景。“说真的，我这一生还从未见过哪个国家有这么多人正在成为中产阶级，又有这么多人想买苹果产品的。”他并未直接回答这位分析师的问题，但是用了一句老话作为总结：“前途无量。”

    可能你认为自己早就已经了解苹果在中国的故事了，了解了中国男男女女的工人们在苹果的合作伙伴富士康公司（Foxconn）苛刻的工作环境下辛苦劳作，生产着iPod和iPhone。但是苹果还在以另外一种方式，不动声色地挺进中国市场。没错，不动声色。。苹果只要在智能手机和个人电脑这些核心产品上维持市场份额增长，就能拥有能够释放数十亿美元额外营业收入的潜力。如果你认为，作为全球价值最高的公司，市值高达6,000亿美元的苹果公司已发展到头的话，我们恳请你将视线转向东方。

    即使中国正在经历比预期更严峻的经济增长放缓，它仍在继续培育成千上万对苹果产品趋之若鹜的消费者。今年上半年度，苹果在大中国区的销售额达到124亿美元。而分析师相信，2012年苹果在中国的销售额能达到250亿美元，甚至更高。而去年这一数字是133亿美元，五年前更是几乎从零开始。库克称，2007年——也即iPhone风靡世界的前一年——苹果在中国的营业收入是“几亿美元”。直到2008年，苹果才在北京开设了首家专卖店，一座现代化的玻璃和金属结构建筑。此时距离它在美国推出零售战略已整整过去了七年之久。

    即便考虑苹果从中国市场获得的全部收入，中国也只占其总收入的一小部分。苹果2011年的1,080亿美元收入中，只有12%来自中国市场（相比之下，美国市场的销售额高达380亿美元）。将来中国会成为苹果的第一大市场吗？如何做到呢？库克能采取多种举措来强化苹果在中国的市场地位：他可以为中国度身定做产品，或者扩大苹果专卖店的网络。迄今为止，苹果在中国大陆只有5家专卖店。未来，他还可以与中国移动（China Mobile）达成合作，拓展新方向。中移动是全球最大的无线运营商，用户高达6.55亿人【苹果已和中国联通（China Unicom）及中国电信（Telecom）建立了合作】。不只是备受期待的苹果电视或新版iPad或新的热捧应用，中国似乎同样是苹果的下一个重大机遇。只有一个不那么小的问题：中国本身。

    可能你已经看过三星公司（Samsung）的 Galaxy S III智能手机在美国的电视广告了：片中嘲笑了排长队买苹果产品的用户，对自己略略超过iPhone的升级配置洋洋自得，自卖自夸。比起这两大手机厂商在中国市场上的激烈竞争，这已经算是相当有风度了。三星在中国智能手机市场上牢牢占据了18%的份额，而苹果是12%。三星已表示，将增加本已十分庞大的、以中国为中心的市场营销和广告预算，以在这个市场、尤其是智能手机市场上打造明显的增长动力，因此也可能会迫使苹果采取同样的策略。目前，采用谷歌Android操作系统的Galaxy S III在中国市场的表现超乎预期。三星中国区一位高管表示：“我们希望在中国市场保持比苹果更大的份额，也相信自己能做到。”

    Tim Cook, Apple's reserved and soft-spoken CEO, has a tendency to wax euphoric about the China market and his company's place in it.

    When asked last year by an analyst whether China could replace the U.S. as Apple's biggest market, Cook positively gushed. "How far can it go?" he responded, referring to China's prospects. "Certainly in my lifetime I've never seen a country with as many people rising into the middle class, with people wanting to buy Apple products." He didn't directly answer the analyst's question, but concluded, "The sky is the limit."

    You may think you know the story of Apple (AAPL) in China -- how the men and women who make iPods and iPhones for Apple partner Foxconn labor under punishing conditions. But there's another Apple Goes to China story, and this one is the tale of an underdog -- yes, underdog -- that has the potential to unlock billions and billions of dollars in additional revenue, just by eking out market share gains in core products such as smartphones and PCs. If you think Apple, the most valuable company in the world, with a market cap of nearly $600 billion, has nowhere to go but down, we humbly suggest you turn your gaze to the East.

    Even as China experiences a sharper-than-expected economic slowdown, it continues to mint millions of consumers who covet Apple's products. In its fiscal first half of the year, Apple has reported $12.4 billion in sales from greater China, and analysts believe Apple could garner $25 billion or more in China sales in calendar 2012. And that's up from $13.3 billion last fiscal year, and almost nothing five years ago. In 2007 -- the year before the iPhone became available internationally -- Apple's annual revenue from China was "a few hundred millions of dollars," Cook has said. The company didn't open its first store in China, a modern glass-and-metal structure in Beijing, until 2008, a full seven years after launching its retail strategy in the U.S.

    Now consider that for all Apple's gains in China, the country remains a relatively small contributor to the device maker's revenue mix. Of its $108 billion in 2011 revenue, only 12% came from China. (In contrast, sales in the Americas topped $38 billion.) Could China someday become Apple's No. 1 market, and how? There are many things Cook could do to bolster his company's position: He could customize products for China or expand Apple's retail presence. To date there are only five Apple stores in mainland China. And he could really move the needle by striking a deal with China Mobile (CHL), the world's largest wireless operator, with 655 million users on its network. (Apple already has deals with China Unicom (CHU) and China Telecom (CHA).) It would seem China -- more than a much-anticipated Apple television or another version of the iPad or the next hot app -- represents Apple's next big opportunity. There's just one not-so-small problem: China itself.

    Perhaps you've seen the American television commercials for Samsung's Galaxy S III smartphones: the ones that mock Apple customers for waiting in long lines and boasting about minute upgrades to the iPhone. That's sportsmanlike behavior compared with the war that's taking place between the two gadgetmakers in China, where Korea's Samsung is firmly entrenched with 18% of the smartphone market, vs. Apple's 12%. Samsung has indicated it will amp up an already large China-centric marketing and advertising budget, trying to build on what it sees as obvious momentum in the market, particularly in smartphones, arguably putting pressure on Apple to do the same. The Galaxy S III, which uses Google's (GOOG) Android operating system, is outperforming expectations in China. Says a senior China-based executive at Samsung: "We want to remain bigger than Apple in China, and we believe we will."