苹果能不能攻下中国

    迄今为止，两大公司在美国和其他地方法院展开的惊心动魄的专利大战还未在中国上演。中国官员表示，两家公司都还没有要求他们调查知识产权的相关诉请。不过，目前总营收入约30%来自中国市场的三星已开始设法抢占先机，在中国建立良好的品牌形象。它在西安建立了一家大型闪存工厂，公司高管还向《韩国时报》（the Korea Times）透露，他们正在开展一场魅力攻势，与中国政府高官开展密切接触。

    不过，三星对苹果的最大优势在于其包罗万象的产品线。华尔街知名卖方研究公司Sanford C. Bernstein的资深技术分析师马克•纽曼称：“智能手机市场正在分化为高端和低端市场。”三星在这两者上都实力强劲——S7562的零售价为1,998元，约为317美元——而苹果则在高端市场上独领风骚。iPhone 4s的零售价约为4,500元，或700多美元。电信公司为签约服务提供补贴，能在合同期内明显降低购机成本。但即便有这样的优惠条件，但对一个2011年人均年收入不到5,000美元的国家（沿海地区这个数字接近10,000美元）来说，一部iPhone也是一笔不小的前期投资。因此，当那些有钱的中国人，也就是那些逛路易威登（Louis Vuitton）精品店，买宝马（BMW）的那些人能轻松买一部iPhone时，绝大多数中国人，甚至包括那些所谓的新晋中产阶级，也对价格格外敏感。

    请看这个情况：《财富》杂志（Fortune）曾在中国的三个城市访问过150多位正在购买智能手机的年轻人。超过半数的受访者都觉得魏敬平（音译）说出了他们的心声。魏先生是繁华的南方城市广州的一位26岁的白领，他说：“我喜欢iPhone，它很酷。但它的价格有点超出我的承受能力了。我需要多挣点钱才能买一部。可能再过个几年吧。”不过，等到那个时候，他可能已经变成另一个品牌的忠实用户了。

    这个问题对苹果和华尔街来说同样迫切而重要。Sanford Bernstein公司的苹果分析师托尼•萨克纳吉估算，中国消费者购买的智能手机有70%多售价在300美元以下。在今年苹果与分析师进行的一次电话会议上，萨克纳吉问库克，是否廉价智能机的普及限制了苹果在中国获得更大市场份额的能力。库克对他的数据提出了质疑，但也没有提供自己关于低端智能机方面的销售估算。他对分析师的这个问题避而不谈，转而做了一番标准的苹果式回答：“我们会坚持自己的品质，生产最好的产品。如果做到了这一点，我们就会有非常非常好的前景。”（苹果拒绝为本报道进一步说明此事。）库克坚守高端产品的战略确实让苹果维持了高额利润，其2011年的毛利率高达40.5%。

    由于产品线丰富，三星还能接近更多的中国消费者。除了手机、平板电脑和个人电脑外，三星还销售电视、相机，甚至微波炉这类家电产品。凭借如此多样化的产品线，三星与成千上万的零售商和分销商都建立了业务往来，包括那些所谓的五线城市，即人口在50万左右的城市的经销商。这些夫妻店可能没有苹果专卖店那么魅力四射、名头响亮，但是现在苹果在中国大城市只有五家直营店，还有上百家授权店。苹果表示，计划在未来几个月再开几家旗舰店，但是不肯透露具体地点或日期。

    So far the companies' epic patent infringement battle, playing out in courtrooms in the U.S. and elsewhere, has yet to reach China. Chinese officials say they haven't been asked to investigate intellectual-property claims by either company. But Samsung, which currently gets about 30% of its overall revenue from China, is already seeking to preemptively engender goodwill there. It is building a huge flash-memory factory in the city of Xian, and company executives told the Korea Times that they are on a charm offensive, meeting with high-level Chinese government officials.

    Samsung's biggest edge over Apple, though, is the breadth of its product line. "The smartphone market is bifurcating into premium and low end,'' notes Mark Newman, a senior technology analyst at Sanford C. Bernstein. Samsung is strong at both ends of the spectrum -- the S 7562 model retails for about 1,998 renminbi, or $317 -- while Apple plays in the high end alone. The iPhone 4s retails for about 4,500 RMB, or more than $700. Phone companies offer subsidies in exchange for service deals that can push the cost of the device down significantly over the life of the contract. But even with such discounts, an iPhone is an extraordinarily big upfront investment in a country where per capita annual income in 2011 was less than $5,000. (In urban China that figure rises to just under $10,000.) And so while the über-wealthy Chinese -- those who shop at Louis Vuitton and buy BMWs -- can handily afford an iPhone, most Chinese consumers, even those in the new middle class, remain intensely price-conscious.

    Consider: Fortune interviewed more than 150 young Chinese in three different cities while they were shopping for smartphones. More than half echoed the sentiments of Wei Jinping, a 26-year-old office worker in the prosperous southern city of Guangzhou. "I like the iPhone, it's very cool. But it is a bit out of my price range," he said. "I need to make more money to buy one. Maybe in a couple of years." By the time Wei is ready to step up, though, he may have already become a loyal customer of another brand.

    This issue is front and center for Apple -- and for Wall Street. Toni Sacconaghi, Sanford Bernstein's Apple analyst, estimates that 70% or more of the smartphones currently purchased in China sell for $300 or less. On a call for analysts earlier this year Sacconaghi asked Cook whether the popularity of cheaper phones limits Apple's ability to gain market share in China. Cook challenged Sacconaghi's data but didn't offer his own estimates on low-end smartphones. He also evaded the analyst's question, instead offering a pretty standard Apple line. "We're going to stick to our knitting and make the best products," Cook replied. "And we think that if we do that, we've got a very, very good business ahead of us.'' (Apple declined to elaborate further on the issue for this story.) Cook's commitment to high-end devices certainly helps Apple preserve its margins; its gross margin percentage in 2011 was 40.5%.

    Samsung is also able to reach a wider swath of Chinese consumers, thanks in part to its broad portfolio. In addition to phones and tablets and computers, it sells televisions, cameras, and even appliances such as microwaves. With this diverse product line, Samsung has relationships with tens of thousands of retailers and distributors, including venders in so-called Tier 5 cities, those with around 500,000 residents. The mom-and-pop stores may lack the glamour and prestige of the Apple stores, but for now Apple has only five company-owned stores in China's major cities, and hundreds of licensed stores. Apple says it plans to open several additional flagship stores in the next few months but wouldn't offer specific locations or dates.