苹果能不能攻下中国

    而杨元庆就算对苹果有所顾虑，他也不会表现出来。这位中国电脑和手机制造商联想公司（Lenovo）的首席执行官认为苹果，包括一般西方公司，都不懂得如何对中国首次购买电子产品的消费者开展营销：比如为自己的小家购买台式机的新婚夫妻，或是找到新工作后攒钱买手机的年轻店员。杨在纽约接受《财富》杂志的专访时表示：“就算我告诉他们怎么做，他们也做不来。”

    杨元庆这么自卖自夸还有其他充分的理由。在中国市场上，联想智能手机的销量比苹果大，传统电脑上联想的销售也让其美国对手们甘拜下风。而中国其他本土企业的竞争也日益白热化。在智能手机上，位于深圳的中兴公司（ZTE）是苹果的死对头。华为（Huawei）这家在国际上更多被视为网络设备制造商的公司则在中国智能手机厂商中排名第5，市场份额为9%。

    分析师将这些竞争者近期销售增长的原因归结为苹果用户正在坐等iPhone 5上市，今年年底它将登陆中国市场。但对这些中国本土企业也不可小视。他们资本充足，雄心勃勃，都在模仿三星的全系列战略：低端、中端和高端手机全面出击。以中兴的一款手机为例，它仅售799元，即125美元，不含补贴。尽管这些厂商肯定不如苹果那么酷，但它们的品牌在中国也广受认可、备受尊敬。他们并不会针对本土市场而刻意改造自己的产品：他们就是在为中国用户度身定制。因此华为的Ascend P1手机才会拥有一块炫丽的屏幕。对此一位在上海的评论者称，这块屏幕让手机游戏（这是众多中国智能手机用户的新嗜好）的色彩“非常夺目”。中国的三大电子制造巨头也在积极进军平板电脑市场，目前苹果是这一领域的市场份额领袖。iPad 2在中国的销售只能说差强人意，而且和iPhone一样，它也是一个尺寸包打天下的产品。而联想、中兴和华为则提供各种尺寸的类平板电脑设备，从便宜的、外观像大号手机的款式到联想全新的“瑜伽”系列无所不包。后者将触摸屏和全键盘合二为一。

    所有这些情况使得中国市场上有关iPad mini的传言显得尤其有意思。几份报告揣测，这个新产品拥有7英寸的屏幕，在美国的零售价约为300美元。这款低价平板电脑是大群中国消费者期盼已久的入门级产品：让他们无须花上半年的工资就能尝尝鲜。它甚至可能意味着苹果有意开发iPhone和个人电脑的入门级产品（这也不是没有先例：还记得iPod Shuffle吗？）

    就算苹果还没决定进入低端市场，它在中国依然有很多途径可以刺激增长。苹果还没有与中国移动合作推出适合中移动网络的iPhone。多年来，这两家公司一直在谈判；每年都有传言说这两家公司的合作就近在眼前了。现在最新传言又说，两家将在iPhone 5上开始合作。而中移动的知情人士只会说，两家公司还会继续磋商，但还不会达成最后合作。但正像在美国有新运营商开始供应iPhone就会扩大苹果的市场覆盖面一样，中移动与苹果的合作也会对苹果在中国市场的地位产生巨大影响。毕竟这家公司在中国的市场份额高达66%。

    If Yang Yanqing is worried about Apple, he doesn't show it. The CEO of Chinese computer and phonemaker Lenovo thinks Apple -- and Western companies in general -- don't know how to market to China's first-time electronics buyers: the newlyweds buying a desktop for their home together or the young store clerk purchasing a phone with savings from a new job. "Even if I told them how to do that, they couldn't," Yang told Fortune in an interview in New York.

    Yang has plenty of other reasons for his swagger. Lenovo outsells Apple in smartphones and trounces its American rival in traditional computer sales in its home market. And other homegrown competition is coming on strong in China. Shenzhen-based ZTE is in a dead heat with Apple for smartphone sales. Huawei, mostly known outside China as a maker of networking gear, is the No. 5 smartphone player, with 9% market share.

    Analysts attributed some of the competitors' recent gains to Apple consumers sitting on the sidelines in anticipation of the iPhone 5, which will begin selling in China before the end of the year. But the Chinese insurgents can't be dismissed. They are all well capitalized and very aggressive. They're all mimicking Samsung's strategy of selling low-, medium-, and high-end phones. One ZTE model, for example, can be had for as little as 799 renminbi, or $125, without subsidies. And while these manufacturers are decidedly less cool than Apple, their brands are well recognized and respected in China. They aren't tweaking their products for the local market: They are building them for the Chinese consumer. And so the Huawei Ascend P1 has a lush new display, which, as one Shanghai-based reviewer noted, really makes the colors on mobile games (a near obsession among many Chinese smartphone users) "pop." China's big three electronics makers also are making aggressive bids for the tablet market, where Apple is the current market-share leader. The iPad 2 sold only moderately well in China, and, again, like the iPhone, it is a one-size-fits-all solution. Lenovo, ZTE, and Huawei offer a range of tablet-like devices, from inexpensive models that look a bit like oversize phones to Lenovo's new Yoga line, which combines a touchscreen with a full keyboard.

    All of which make rumors of an iPad mini especially interesting in the Chinese market. Several reports suggest the new device will boast a seven-inch screen and retail in the U.S. for about $300. This lower-cost tablet could be the kind of entry-level device a big swath of China has been waiting for: a chance to take a bite of the Apple brand, without investing half-a-year's salary. It might even suggest a willingness to develop entry-level products for the iPhone and computing lines. (It also isn't unprecedented: Remember the iPod Shuffle?)

    Even if Apple doesn't decide to delve any deeper into lower-end devices, it still has plenty of ways to juice its growth in China. The company has yet to secure a deal to run the iPhone on the China Mobile network. For years the two companies have been negotiating; every year the rumor mill churns that a deal between the two is imminent. There's fresh speculation, once again, that the iPhone 5 will be the device that seals the deal. A source at China Mobile will say only that the two companies continue to have conversations, but that no final deal has been reached. But just as the availability of the iPhone on new carriers in the U.S. expanded Apple's reach, a China Mobile deal would have a huge impact on Apple's presence in China. The cellphone company has a 66% market share in China.