汽车界的四个新迷思

    这项最新分析对于全球汽车行业有着巨大的意义。近年来汽车行业一直在竭力达到越来越苛刻的政府燃油经济规定。除去气候变化因素，如果未来有足够的石油供应，为什么要让企业负担相当于每辆新车加价几千美元的节油科技成本（而且最终转嫁给消费者）？

    误区三：美国人永远不会买小型车。

    这句话人们已经听了很多年了：除非汽油价格高涨，否则美国人不想要小型车。美国是个大国，美国人块头也大，美国人不想放弃运动型多用途车（SUV）和皮卡车。

    这已是往事。如今小型车大卖，而且这不仅仅是由于油价。“传统上，购买小型车的人是因为买不起更大的车，”专业汽车网站TrueCar.com的行业分析师杰西•托普拉克告诉彭博社（Bloomberg）说。“现在情况不是这样了。我们看到人们选择这些车，是因为这些车本身更有吸引力。”

    更有吸引力的部分原因是小车更好。日本制造商已迫使底特律提高品质，增加安全气囊、卫星广播等功能，而欧洲制造商则证明，Mini Cooper和宝马1系（BMW 1-series）这样的车也可以卖出好价钱。

    9月份，全系列20大热销车型中就有10款小型车和跨界车，包括雪佛兰科鲁兹（Chevrolet Cruze）、福特翼虎（Ford Escape）和丰田卡罗拉（Toyota Corolla）等，总共涉及8家不同的制造商。小型车合计占到美国汽车市场的五分之一，这是它们近20年来的最佳表现。

    误区四：如果汽车公司不进入新市场实行多元化，就会出问题。

    随着北美销售缓慢增长、欧洲陷入深度衰退，全球汽车制造商已将业务快速拓展至中国、印度、俄罗斯和巴西等发展中国家。

    这令财富500强公司福特汽车（Ford Motor）在投资者眼中处于不利地位，因为它进入中国市场缓慢，业务仍然高度侧重北美市场。事实上，福特的汽车制造业务利润估计约100%都来自在美国销售的一个系列产品：F系列皮卡。

    摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）资深分析师亚当•乔纳斯深知这一切——他相信这对福特是件好事，至少短期内是这样。他在一份新报告中指出，福特在欧洲每年亏损10亿美元，在南美和中国也没挣到钱，或者只挣到了很少的钱。因此，他写到：“我们相信在未来12-24个月，在中国汽车市场的业务比例低可能并不是什么坏事。我们并不怀疑行业销量仍将是全球汽车行业的主要推动力，但我们对于这一增长的质量和获利能力持短期保留意见。”

    与此同时，他预计住宅建设显著回升将大力推动汽车市场和皮卡车的销售。他并不认为福特依赖单一市场有多危险，相信随着美国住房市场复苏，福特将大有作为（而且有可能相当赚钱）。

    译者：早稻米

    This new analysis has enormous implications for the global auto industry, which has been racing to meet increasingly stringent government fuel economy regulations. Issues of climate change aside, if there is going to be plenty of oil available in the future, why burden companies -- and eventually consumers -- with the cost of fuel-saving technologies that are expected to add several thousand dollars to the price of a new car?

    Myth No. 3: Americans will never buy small cars

    You've heard it for years: Except when gas prices spike, Americans don't want small cars. It is a big country, we're big people, and we don't want to give up our SUVs and pickups.

    Not any more. Small cars are selling big, and it isn't just because of fuel prices. "Traditionally small cars were purchased by people who couldn't afford anything else," Jesse Toprak, an industry analyst for TrueCar.com, tells Bloomberg. "Right now, that's not the case. We see people choosing them because they find them more appealing."

    Part of the reason they are more appealing is small cars are better. Japanese manufacturers have forced Detroit to upgrade quality and include features like airbags and satellite radio, while European automakers have proved that small cars such as the Mini Cooper and the BMW 1-series can go for premium prices.

    Among the top 20 sellers in all categories in September were 10 small cars and crossovers, defined as compacts or smaller, from eight different makers, led by Chevrolet Cruze, Ford Escape, and Toyota Corolla. In all, small cars commanded a fifth of the market, their best showing in nearly 20 years.

    Myth No. 4: Auto companies suffer when they don't diversify into new markets.

    With sales in North America growing only slowly and Europe gripped by a deep recession, global automakers have been rapidly expanding into developing markets like China, India, Russia, and Brazil.

    That has put Ford Motor (F, Fortune 500) at a disadvantage with investors because it has been slow to move into China and remains heavily focused on North America. In fact, it's estimated that just about 100% of Ford's profit from automobile production comes from a single product sold mainly in the U.S: the F-series pickup truck.

    Veteran analyst Adam Jonas of Morgan Stanley knows all this -- and believes it is a good thing for Ford, at least in the short run. In a new report, he points out Ford is losing $1 billion a year in Europe and making little or nothing in South America and China. As a result, he writes: "We believe the next 12 to 24 months may not be the worst time to have a low exposure to the Chinese auto market. While we do not doubt industry volume will remain a key driver of the global auto sector, we have our near-term reservations about the quality and profitability of that growth."

    Meanwhile, he sees a dramatic upturn coming in residential construction that will sweep the automaker and its pickups along with it. Instead of viewing Ford as dangerously dependent on a single market, he views its stock as a massive -- and potentially very profitable -- play on a U.S. housing recovery.