新兴市场教父：中国经济不会崩盘

    这些年来，马克•莫比乌斯赢得了不少称号，比如“新兴市场教父”、“环球旅行家”等，所有这些称号都源于同一个事实：这位现年73岁的投资者长时间以来一直是华尔街最爱冒险的投资者之一。他投资发展中市场已经长达40多年，对世界增长最快的地区拥有罕见的洞察力。如今莫比乌斯担任着弗兰克林-邓普顿（Franklin Templeton）新兴市场集团董事长的职位，管理着450亿美元的资产，正在押下与众不同的赌注。他认为，中国超强的增长趋势将得以延续，而欧洲能通过自救，避免毁灭。对于中国，他表示，“人们过于悲观了。”在欧洲，他认为即使决策层仍在努力忙着解决大问题，一些规模较小的国家颇有价值。（他对此充满信心。）喜欢穿白西装、打亮色领带的莫比乌斯从他在新加坡的办公室接受了《财富》杂志（Fortune）记者的电话采访。以下是经过编辑的采访摘要：

现在，很多人对于中国的GDP增长都持怀疑态度。您说增长率是7%。这是真的吗？

    我知道，很多人都质疑中国发布的数据，但如果看与中国相关的独立数据，比方说，从西方、从日本、从德国出口到中国的数据来看，你会发现，增长率还是非常不错的。如今，很显然，增长正在减速，但并不意味着中国不再继续增长。即便是最悲观的预计，也可能是预计增长5%，比美国或欧洲当前的增速高出了5倍。

那么，为什么中国股市今年毫无起色？

    中国股市表现不好的一个原因是大量的新股发售，也就是IPO。去年，新兴市场IPO总额约为2,500亿美元，其中很大一部分在中国。今年很可能会出现同样的状况。新股这样涌入市场，往往会从抽走二级市场的资金，导致股票市场走势欠佳。这种状况不会永远持续下去。随着更多资金进入这些市场，会有转机出现。

您为什么持有这么多大型能源股，比如俄罗斯的卢克石油（Lukoil）、俄罗斯天然气公司（Gazprom）和中国石油（PetroChina）？

    我们在世界各地旅行的过程中注意到的一件事情，无论是在中国、非洲还是其他任何地方，都对能源有巨大的需求。这是受到运输极大增长，以及冰箱、洗衣机、空调、电脑、手提电脑、iPhone等消费增加的推动所致。所有这些都需要电，而发电的最有效方式是通过煤炭或石油。所有有关大宗商品价格下跌的担忧都过度了。从长期来看，趋势相当明确：大宗商品价格将继续上涨。

    Mark Mobius has picked up a variety of nicknames over the years -- the Pied Piper of Emerging Markets, the Globetrotter -- but all of them are inspired by the same fact: The 73-year-old has long been one of Wall Street's most adventurous investors. After more than four decades of investing in developing markets, he has rare insight into the world's fastest-growing regions. Today Mobius, who as chairman of the emerging-markets group at Franklin Templeton manages $45 billion in assets, is betting against the crowd. He believes that China's superpowered growth will continue and thatEurope will save itself from utter destruction. On China, he says, "People have gotten too pessimistic." And in Europe he's finding gems in smaller countries even as policymakers work to solve the big issues. (He's confident they will.) Mobius, who favors white suits and bright ties, spoke by phone with Fortune from his office in Singapore. Here are edited excerpts:

A lot of people are skeptical about China's GDP growth now. You say the growth rate is 7%. But is it real?

    I know a lot of people have questioned the statistics coming out of China, but if you look at independent statistics as related to China -- for example, exports from the West, from Japan, from Germany to China -- you will see that the growth rates are very healthy. Now, it's clear that there's a deceleration of growth taking place, but that deceleration doesn't mean that China's not growing. Even at the most pessimistic forecast, you're probably looking at 5% growth, which is five times higher than what the U.S. or Europe is doing.

So why haven't Chinese stocks gone anywhere this year?

    One of the reasons the stock market in China has not performed very well is because of the tremendous number of new issues, or IPOs. Last year they totaled about $250 billion in all emerging markets -- and a large portion of that was just in China. This year it will probably be about the same. When you have that kind of new paper coming in, it tends to draw money away from the secondary market, and the stock markets tend to underperform. It's not going to last forever. There will be an evening out as more money comes into these markets.

Why do you own so many big energy companies, such as Russia's Lukoil and Gazprom and China's PetroChina?

    One of the things that we notice as we travel around the world, whether it be in China or Africa or anywhere else, is an incredible appetite for energy driven by the tremendous increase in transportation but also by the increased consumption of refrigerators, washing machines, air conditioners, computers, laptops, iPhones -- you name it. All of this requires power, and that power is most efficiently produced by coal and by oil. All the fears about commodity prices declining have been overdone. Over the long term, the trends are very clear: Commodity prices will continue to rise.