新兴市场教父：中国经济不会崩盘

你对欧元区的前景相对乐观。为什么？

    首先，我认为很多人太没耐心。他们没有意识到欧洲人做事可能总是比世界上其他地方慢很多。我认为，终有一天，他们将找出解决方法。而且，如果回头看看，所有那些耸人听闻的警告所讲的那些可怕事情最终并没有在欧洲发生。我们仍将等待希腊退出欧元区，但这一幕至今还没有发生。

那么，您购买欧洲发展中国家的股票吗？

    我们专注于那些至少有50%利润来自新兴市场的公司。因此，我们倾向于进入罗马尼亚、波兰和匈牙利。我们一直在购买银行股。奥地利银行Raiffeisen Bank就是一个很好的例子。它在整个东欧拥有庞大的网络，特别是在俄罗斯，它是最大的外资银行之一。该股承压是因为投资者对欧洲的整体看法所致。

为什么不购买一些从新兴市场获得大部分利润的发达国家公司？

    这种间接的方式不能带来完全的投资敞口。可能给你50%，然后你会被剩下的一半业务所拖累，因为这部分业务增长缓慢或迟缓。但也有机会，比方说像雅芳（Avon Products)这样的公司。该公司出了一些问题。股价大跌。但它有60%以上的利润来自新兴市场，而且还在增长。因此，这是一只我们可以买入的股票，可以用一种廉价的方式进入一些市场。大型跨国公司在这些市场已经收购了富有吸引力的本土消费品公司。

覆盖广泛的MSCI新兴市场指数目前的股息收益率接近3%。新兴市场是收益投资者的乐园吗？

    投资者一直要求从新兴市场公司身上获得更高的回报，因为它们的感知风险更高。这里需要强调的是“感知风险”。股息问题的另一个原因是，这些国家有很多公司都是由国家控制，而政府要求获得派息。它们想要回报。因此，中国公司（比如中国石油）的投资者们就享有不错的派息。或者在巴西，你也会看到巴西石油公司（Petrobras）支付相当不错的派息。我们持有这两家公司的股票。

第三轮量化宽松政策（QE3）对于你投资的新兴市场意味着什么？

    总的来说是件好事，因为它向全球体系注入了更多流动性，而这些流动性需要找个家。我们一直有些意外，比方说，我们的前沿市场基金（Frontier Markets Fund）在两年前推出后已经吸引了12亿美元的资金。资金流的大量增长给我们带来了收益。

    译者：早稻米

You are relatively bullish on the prospects for the eurozone. Why?

    First of all, I think a lot of people have been too impatient. They don't realize the European psyche tends to take things much slower than maybe other parts of the world. I think at the end of the day they are going to come to a solution. And if you look back, the dire warnings of all these terrible things that were going to happen in Europe haven't happened. We're still waiting for Greece to exit, and it hasn't happened.

So are you buying stocks in developing countries within Europe?

    We have to concentrate only on those companies that have at least 50% of their assets' earnings in emerging markets. So we would tend to be in places like Romania, Poland, and Hungary. We've been buying banks. Raiffeisen Bank in Austria is a good example. It has a tremendous network throughout Eastern Europe, and, particularly in Russia, it's one of the largest foreign banks. The stock is depressed because of the general attitude toward Europe.

Why not buy a developed-market company that gets a large portion of its earnings from emerging markets?

    The indirect way unfortunately doesn't give you the full exposure. It gives you maybe 50%, and then you're stuck with the other half, which is slow-growing or slower-growing. But there are opportunities, such as a company like Avon Products (AVP). It's had problems. The stock is way down. But over 60% of its earnings are in emerging markets and growing. So that's a company that we buy because it's a way to get in cheaply to markets where large multinationals have already acquired the juicy local consumer companies.

The broad MSCI Emerging Markets index now has a dividend yield of almost 3%. Are emerging markets a good play for income investors?

    Investors have been demanding better returns from emerging-market companies because of their higher perceived risk. Underline the words "perceived risk." The other reason for the dividends is that a lot of the companies in these countries are state-controlled, and the governments demand dividends. They want returns. So investors in Chinese companies -- for example, PetroChina (PTR) -- see nice dividends coming their way. Or in Brazil you will see Petrobras (PBR) paying pretty healthy dividends. We own both of those stocks.

What does QE3 mean for the emerging markets where you invest?

    Generally speaking, it's very good because it pours more liquidity into the system globally, and that liquidity needs a home. We have been quite surprised, for instance, that our Frontier Markets Fund (TFMAX) has attracted $1.2 billion since it was introduced two years ago. We get the benefit of a tremendous boost in flows.