谷歌新品提前泄密背后的真相

    这份低于预期的财报表明，我们正处在佩奇所说的遭遇“困难”的道路上。不过我们有理由相信佩奇对谷歌的长期展望言之有理。即便是现在，事情也没有那么糟糕。举个例子，谷歌称手机的收入每年达到80亿美元，而其中“绝大多数”都来自广告收入。相比一年前25亿美元的手机广告收入，可以看出谷歌将市场向手机转变进展不错。此外，如果不考虑海外货币的疲软造成的冲击，谷歌的整体收益还会显著提高。

    “谷歌核心业务的基础依然十分牢固，”麦格理证券公司（Macquarie Securities）的分析师本•沙克特在收益报告发布后为投资者撰文时写道。沙克特还提到，除去摩托罗拉（Motorola）这个加入谷歌不到一年的新成员，谷歌的收益已经上升至23.7%。他认为：“这个数据很适合用来估量核心业务的表现，而且看起来收益还是不错的。”

    我们再想想：即便在周四令人震惊地跌落了60美元，谷歌的股价在最近三个月内涨幅依旧达到20%。这一数值要好过亚马逊（涨幅13%）、苹果（涨幅4%）、微软（跌幅3%）和Facebook（跌幅35%）。（回顾上一年，苹果的股票表现要远优于谷歌。）

    收听了收益电话会议之后，还有一件事情让我触动。今年年初，谷歌的威胁大都来自Facebook和社交媒体。所以当Google+在第一季度的电话会议中被提及了18次，在第二季度的电话会议中被提及了26次时，大家都不以为奇。但这次呢？只提到了两次。硅谷的一切变得真快啊。

    译者：严匡正

    The weaker-than-expected financial report suggests that we are in the midst of Page's "disruption" phase. But there is reason to believe Page is right about Google's long-term prospects. And even now, things are not exactly dire. For one, Google said that mobile revenue is coming in at a rate of $8 billion a year, and that the "vast majority" of that is from ads. Compare that to the $2.5 billion in mobile ad revenue a year ago, and you could conclude that the transition to mobile is going fairly well for Google. What's more, if you discount the negative impact from weakening currencies overseas, Google's overall revenue would have been significantly higher.

    "The top-line fundamentals for Google's core business are solid," Ben Schachter, an analyst with Macquarie Securities, wrote in a note to investors following the earnings report. Noting that Google's revenue, excluding Motorola which was not part of the company a year, was up 23.7%, Schachter added: "This is the proper measure of the core business and it is fine."

    And consider this: Even after the shocking $60 drop Thursday, Google's share price is up about 20% over the past three months, better than Amazon (up 13%), Apple (AAPL) (up 4%), Microsoft (down 3%) or Facebook (FB) (down 35%). (If you go back a year, Apple's stock significantly outperformed Google's.)

    After listening to the earnings call, one more thing struck me. As the year opened, the threat to Google appeared to come largely from Facebook and social. So it's no surprise that Google+ received 18 mentions in the earnings call for the first quarter, and 26 mentions in the following quarter. This time? Just two mentions. In Silicon Valley, things change very fast indeed.