奥巴马在高盛的好兄弟

    这位高盛经济学家一直是赤字鹰派人物的眼中钉。比方说，他在2010年时曾经说：“很多年内通货膨胀都不太可能是个问题。”2011年，他发表了《对名义GDP目标的分析》（The case for a Nominal GDP Level Target）报告，阐明了他信奉的观点，此后，这种观点已经逐渐赢得了支持。设定名义国内生产总值（NGDP）目标，最早是由教授和博主斯考特•萨姆纳推行的一个理念。大致设想是由美联储（Fed）官员设定名义GDP目标，并承诺采取一切可能的措施（例如购买资产）达到这个水平。哈祖斯在报告中提到萨姆纳时称，设定名义GDP目标是“Fed最有前途的选择”。

    金融危机爆发后，哈祖斯凭借危机前的精确预言备受瞩目。曾在牛津大学（Oxford）和威斯康辛大学麦迪逊分校（University of Wisconsin-Madison）求学的哈祖斯于1997年加盟高盛法兰福克办公室。他在2011年成为高盛的首席经济学家，接替现任纽约联邦储备银行（Federal Reserve Bank of New York）行长威廉•杜德利。

    美国联邦选举委员会（Federal Election Commission）的记录显示，哈祖斯曾在2004年向共和党全国委员会捐款1,000美元，2007年向奥巴马捐款2,300美元。这次大选，他只向高盛的政治行动委员会捐了款，这个委员会同时支持两个政党的候选人。

    早在2005年，哈祖斯就拉响了住房市场的警报，当时他发表了一篇题为《泡沫危机？也许是吧》（Bubble Trouble? Probably Yes）的报告。2007年12月，经济专栏作家本•斯坦恩在《纽约时报》上批评哈祖斯的悲观预测，声称他是在制造恐慌情绪，为高盛的看跌头寸造势。

    斯坦恩（错误地）嘲笑了哈祖斯的观点，后者认为，次贷危机可能会失控，阻碍贷款和经济增长。“他还假定，”他写道，“银行将不得不进行深度收缩，导致贷款停滞，经济增长蹒跚——二战以来从来没有出现过这样的情形，除非美联储有意为之。”（这篇文章单从娱乐价值而言，值得一看，点击阅读。）

    虽然华尔街经济学家通常都不会做出明确的政治评论，但有些知名的预测人士已表示，一旦罗姆尼当选，他将提振市场。巴克莱银行（Barclays）美国首席股票策略师巴瑞•纳普10月份时预测称，共和党获胜可能推高股市。他在另外一份报告中称，如果罗姆尼获胜，将“双管齐下”，推行“促进经济增长的税收和福利改革”。拥趸甚多的知名看跌经济学家大卫•罗森博格最近在一次采访中表示，罗姆尼更可能妥协，使得他（当选）“总体上对经济更有利”。

    哈祖斯没有明确说过他认为奥巴马获胜将有利于美国经济。一位高盛发言人称：“任何预测的依据都是我们对经济运行规律、政府政策对市场和利率的影响等问题的认识。我们的目标是尽可能准确，而不是支持某个党派的政策。”

    然而，哈祖斯的立场毫无疑问会令当前的政府很高兴。奥巴马在高盛或许已失去很多支持者，但他仍然保住了一位有智慧的盟友——尽管捐款减少了，但这个盟友或许更值钱。

    译者：早稻米

    The Goldman economist has been a thorn in the side of deficit hawks, arguing in 2010, for example, that "inflation is unlikely to become a problem for years." In 2011, he published a note titled "The case for a Nominal GDP Level Target," giving his endorsement to the idea, which has since gained momentum. NGDP targeting, a concept that was promoted early on by the professor and blogger Scott Sumner, would have Fed officials targeting a nominal GDP level, and then pledging to do whatever it takes (e.g. buying assets) to reach that level. In his note, which cited Sumner, Hatzius called NGDP targeting "the Fed's most promising option."

    The economist rose to prominence during the financial meltdown, largely because of his accurate prognostications leading up to the crisis. Schooled at Oxford and the University of Wisconsin-Madison, Hatzius joined Goldman's Frankfurt office in 1997. He became the chief economist at Goldman in 2011, succeeding William Dudley, the current president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

    Federal Election Commission records show that Hatzius donated $1000 to the Democratic National Committee in 2004 and $2300 to Obama in 2007. During this election cycle, he only donated to Goldman's political action committee, which had backed candidates from both parties.

    Hatzius sounded warnings about the housing market as early as 2005, when he published a report that asked "Bubble Trouble? Probably Yes." In December of 2007, the economics writer Ben Stein criticized Hatzius in the New York Times for his gloomy prognostications, accusing the economist of fear-mongering in order to support Goldman's bearish position.

    Stein (incorrectly) mocked Hatzius for his view that the subprime mortgage crisis could spin out of control, hampering lending and slowing growth. "He is also postulating," Stein wrote, "that lenders would have to retrench so deeply that lending would stall and growth would falter -- an event that, again, has not happened on any scale in the postwar world, except when planned by the central bank." (The piece, available here, is worth reading for its comedic value alone).

    While Wall Street economists typically avoid giving explicit political commentary, some well known forecasters have said that a Romney win would boost the market. Barry Knapp, the top U.S. equities strategist at Barclays, predicted in October that a GOP sweep would likely send stocks higher; he observed in a separate note that a Romney win would "carry a dual mandate" of "pro-growth tax reform and entitlement reform." David Rosenberg, a notoriously bearish economist with a large following, recently said in an interviewthat Romney would be more likely to compromise, making him "overall better for the economy."

    Hatzius has not said outright that he believes an Obama victory would benefit the economy. A Goldman Sachs (GS) spokesperson said, "Forecasts are informed by our views on how the economy works and what government policy will mean for markets and interest rates. Our goal is to be as accurate as possible, not to champion the policies of either party."

    And yet, Hatzius' positions have no doubt pleased the administration. The President may have lost many of his supporters at Goldman, but he has maintained an intellectual ally—which may be worth more than the decline in donations.