奥巴马连任后改善对华关系的三大关键

    此次美国总统大选中，美国两党候选人米特•罗姆尼和巴拉克•奥巴马都大肆指责中国，从汇率操纵国到不公平贸易问题，不一而足。如今随着大选落幕，美国该如何与中国这个世界第二大经济体相处呢？既然中美两国经济增长的相互依赖性日益加深，关系融洽总比剑拔弩张要强。本文作者建议美国不妨从下述三方面着手，建立良好的对华关系：

解决美国的财政困境

    美国的联邦预算赤字已连续四年超过万亿美元大关。这么高的赤字水平不仅让美国企业界感到不安，也让希望在美国多做点生意的中国投资者踯躅。

    去年，受各方面政治角力的制约，奥巴马未能带领美国摆脱财政困境。如今大选已经结束，他必须再次尝试。除非分裂的美国国会能够很快达成一项削减预算赤字的方案，否则从明年1月1日起，美国必须削减政府支出约6,000亿美元，还可能实施加税政策。这些措施可能会把美国经济再次推入衰退。

    这样的不确定性妨碍了美国企业扩大招聘规模和投资规模。虽然我们从中国人那里听到的说法不多，但这对他们也是利益攸关，布鲁金斯学会（Brookings Instituion）高级研究员李侃如称：“中国在美国经济中有大量的投资。”

    中国仍是美国的主要债权人，持有1.15万亿美元的美国国债。这一数额超过其他任何国家。倒不是说如果美国短期内不达成削减赤字的方案，中国人就会立马停止购买美国国债，但肯定会让中国投资者三思。过去几年，中国对美投资稳步增长：2012年前10个月，投资总额已达63亿美元，显著高于2011年的45亿美元。

    如果奥巴马想让这些来自世界第二大经济体的投资者继续向美国投资，就得推动分裂的美国国会达成一致，让这个国家走上更健康的财政道路。

跟中国新一届领导人搞好关系

    随着美国奥巴马总统赢得连任，中国也将迎来新一届领导人。但中国将根据完全不同的政治流程选举新一届领导人。

    大多数人，包括绝大多数中国人，都不确定未来会怎样。

    虽然美国总统不能左右中国选择什么样的道路，但奥巴马仍然有机会与中国新一届领导人商定新的基调。

    “美国和中国事实上都不怎么信任对方的长期打算，这种不信任很大程度上是迫于无奈，”华盛顿布鲁金斯学会高级研究员李侃如表示。我们还记得，此次美国大选的一大特色就是强硬的对华言论。两位候选人在竞选期间可能都批评过中国操纵汇率、不公平贸易等等问题，但当选后的奥巴马必须小心处理这些话题。任何过于苛责或咄咄逼人的做法都可能导致中国新一届领导人更激烈的回击。与奥巴马不同，中国新一届领导人还需要建立自身的政治影响力。

不要再举棋不定

    中国人希望在美国扩大投资，这一点很清楚。但美国似乎并不总是希望获得投资。于是，中国投资者得到的信号就忽左忽右。

    最近，中国似乎成了华盛顿的活靶子。在这方面，奥巴马或许比罗姆尼还好点，但“中国威胁论”加剧了中国人的担忧——美国可能正在疏远中国，避免跟中国有更多生意上的往来。

    During the U.S. presidential campaign, both Mitt Romney and Barack Obama piled on criticisms of China – from being a currency manipulator to playing unfairly in the way it trades with the U.S. and other economies. Now that the race is behind us, how should the U.S. approach China, the world's second-largest economy? A stronger relationship is better than a strained one, given that the two economies depend more and more on each other to grow. Here are three ways the U.S. can begin to cultivate the bond.

Resolve America's fiscal woes 

    The U.S. federal budget deficit surpassed $1 trillion for four years in a row – a level that not only unnerves executives across corporate America, but also Chinese investors looking to do more business in the U.S.

    Last year, Obama wasn't able to lead the nation out of its fiscal woes amid all the political wrangling. Now that the election is over, he will have to try again. Unless a divided Congress can quickly reach a deal to reduce the deficit, about $600 billion in government spending cuts and higher taxes threaten to kick in on Jan. 1 and possibly push the U.S. economy back into recession.

    The uncertainty has stalled U.S. businesses from hiring and investing more. Though we've heard less from the Chinese, they have plenty at stake as well, says Ken Lieberthal, senior fellow at the Brookings Instituion. "The Chinese are heavily invested in the U.S. economy."

    China remains a major lender to the U.S., owning $1.15 trillion of its government debt. That's more than any other country. It's not as if the Chinese will suddenly stop buying U.S. debt if a deficit deal isn't struck immediately, but it could certainly make investors from the Far East think twice. Chinese investments into the U.S. have steadily risen over the past several years: With about two months left in 2012, it has totaled $6.3 billion, higher than the $4.5 billion in 2011.

    And so if Obama wants investors from the world's second largest economy to continue investing in the U.S., the president will somehow need to bring a split Congress together and put the nation on a healthier fiscal path.

Make nice with China's new leaders 

    As the U.S. starts another term under President Obama, China will also begin a new chapter of its own. China, however, will take on new leaders under a far different political process.

    Most, including the vast majority of Chinese, aren't certain what to expect.

    While the U.S. president will have little control over China's path, Obama will have an opportunity to set a new tone with the new leadership.

    "The U.S. and China really don't trust each other's long-term intensions and that distrust is very coercive," says Ken Lieberthal, senior fellow at Brookings Institution, a Washington DC-based think tank. As we recall, the U.S. presidential race was marked by get-tough on China talks. But while the candidates might have pressed China over currency manipulation and other issues over unfair trade practices, Obama will have to approach those topics delicately. Anything too punitive or aggressive could prompt China's new leaders to strike back harder, as unlike Obama, they will be trying to establish themselves politically.

Quit with those mixed signals

    It's clear the Chinese want to invest more in the U.S. But the U.S. doesn't always seem to want that. Which only leaves Chinese investors with mixed signals.

    Lately, China seemed to be all but a punching bag in Washington. Perhaps less so for Obama than Romney, but the 'fear China' rhetoric has aggravated Chinese concerns that the U.S. is distancing away from doing more business with China.