奥巴马将向富人加税

    我们估计未来数周这样的僵局还会持续，加剧美国人的焦虑情绪。它已经损害到了增长、投资和就业创造。预计经历高潮迭起、波折丛生之后，最后一刻可能会达成妥协，妥协的结果是奥巴马将获胜。

    奥巴马有着更有力的论据。他明白这一点。共和党人也明白这一点。这只是个时间问题，需要等到足够多的美国公民也意识到这一点。

    政治上，奥巴马刚刚在美国总统大选中赢得了决定性的胜利。收入分配是此次大选中的一个关键问题，包括美国中低收入人群的福祉持续地相对下降。奥巴马在全美大选中的获胜得到了像加利福尼亚等州的支持，这些州的居民直接投票支持富人加税以更好地提供教育资金。

    美国人也知道过去十年对富人而言是特别好的十年。他们的收入和财富在光景好的年份突飞猛涨；同时，得益于政府的救助计划和前所未有的央行干预，在光景不好的年份受到的影响也相对有限。

    大多数共和党人也认可这些，但他们认为，富人加税对所有人都不利——主要理由是它会削弱创业、冒险和经济扩张的动力。

    虽然税率上调的确会产生这样的效果，但鉴于当前的环境和近年来的情况，这样的理由仍然有点牵强。如果与其他可能性相比，这个理由的问题就更大了，比如跌落财政悬崖，或者实施更大的调整（针对处于边缘、边际消费倾向不可避免更高的人群），避免跌落财政悬崖。

    如果到了必须作出决断的时候，而且这个时刻最终会到来，那时，理性最终将获胜。

    预计美国总统奥巴马（应该）会坚持对最高收入人群加税。共和党人肯定会叫唤，但最终还是得妥协。这样才能避免美国经济崩溃。

    美国上下将长出一口气。但人们很快就会意识到，美国致力于恢复经济活力、确保金融健康以及克服政治失灵的战争将持续经年，而这只是这场战争中的一场小战役。在这里，比以往任何时候都更加需要美国民主党和共和党的建设性互动，这一点既紧迫又重要。

    穆罕默德•埃尔-埃利安是太平洋投资管理公司(PIMCO)的首席执行官兼联席首席投资官。

    译者：早稻米

    We should expect this impasse to persist for a few weeks, adding to the anxiety that Americans already feel – and which has already undermined growth, investment and job creation. After lots of high drama, a compromise is likely to emerge in the eleventh hour and it will be one in which President Obama prevails.

    The President has the stronger set of arguments. He knows it. The Republicans know it. And it is only a matter of time until enough citizens realize it too.

    Politically, the President just won a decisive election in which income distribution was a key issue, including the persistent relative decline in the wellbeing of middle- and low-income Americans. His national victory was supported by states such as California where, collectively, citizens directly voted for higher taxes on the rich in order to better fund education.

    Americans also know that the last decade has been a particularly prosperous one for the rich. Their income and wealth rose at pronounced rates in the good years; and the downside during the bad years was curtailed for many by government bailouts and unprecedented central bank activism.

    While most Republicans will acknowledge all this, they will argue that taxing the rich is bad for all – principally because it reduces incentives for entrepreneurship, risk taking and economic expansion.

    While true at higher tax rates, it is a bit of a stretch to make this an overriding argument in present circumstances and in light of recent history. It is an even more problematic argument when compared to the alternatives – of going over the fiscal cliff or avoiding it by forcing greater adjustment on those already struggling and whose marginal propensity to consume is inevitably higher.

    When push comes to shove, and it will, rationality will ultimately prevail.

    President Obama will – and should – insist on increasing taxes on the highest earning brackets. The Republicans will shout and scream but end up going along. An economic debacle will thus be avoided.

    America will breathe a collective sigh of relief. But it will be dampened by the realization that this is only a small battle in America's multiyear war to restore economic dynamism, ensure financial soundness, and overcome political dysfunction. And here the need for constructive interactions between Democrats and Republicans is even more demanding, yet just as urgent and important.

    Mohamed El-Erian is the CEO and co-chief investment officer of PIMCO.