英国石油为何无人问津

    根据巴克莱资本（Barclays Capital）能源分析师研究结果，自2005年到2011年，随着新发现油气田替换现有生产能力，主要石油公司的平均储备寿命（以现有开采速度，公司原油和天然气储备的可开采年限）维持在12年。道达尔（Total）这类公司靠着并购来延长储备寿命，埃克森美孚和壳牌这样的大公司凭借可持续发展战略取得了更长足发展。当然，这并不是说，埃克森美孚公司不会收购其他公司。几年前，埃克森美孚公司以400亿美元价格收购了天然气公司XTO。但是，大公司并不靠收购来大幅延长自己的储备寿命。

    不容否认的是，英国石油拥有众多让其他石油巨头垂涎的宝贵资产。尽管深水地平线事故让墨西哥湾数月漂油，埃克森美孚至今仍然觊觎着英国石油在墨西哥湾的资产。将这样一个业务遍及全球、涵盖石油价值链各个环节的公司整个吞掉，问题就自然来了。将英国石油所有业务整合起来本已令人头疼。尤其是现在，公司还能不断更新能源储备，保持盈利。在这种情况下，这样做多少有些得不偿失。

    石油公司，尤其是埃克森美孚，行事谨慎。除非确定赚到真金白银，它们不会轻易出手。如果埃克森美孚要收购英国石油，它动用资本的平均回报率将高达35%，让私募基金望尘莫及。所以交易如果真的能实现，英国石油的股价必须大幅下跌。但这一切又不是英国石油管理层愿意接受的。尽管英国石油股价与同类公司相比跌幅较大，相比埃克森美孚股票11.1的市盈率，英国石油市盈率仅为7.1，但总有这样或那样的因素阻碍并购。

    尽管英国石油已经成功地与政府和个人就墨西哥湾漏油达成和解，但还远远没有摆脱麻烦。英国石油仍然需要解决《洁净水法案》（Clean Water Act）和《油污染法案》（Oil Pollution Act）“严重失职”指控。英国石油可能再为此支付少则50亿美元、多则300亿美元的费用。开庭时间定在明年2月，希望英国石油能在此之前达成和解，这样并购才可能真正启动。

    即便从经济角度英国石油的并购案可行，目前看来，圣诞、新年期间也不会有任何进展。资产市值超过1,300亿美元但背负着数十亿美元的未知债务，目前的英国石油公司仍然是一团糟，没有哪家石油公司愿意出手。

    译者：郭延航

    As for reserves, from 2005 to 2011, the average reserve life (the years required to deplete a company's proven oil and gas reserves at current production rates) of the majors have remained relatively stable at 12 years, with net additions from new discoveries replacing current production, according to energy analysts at Barclays Capital. Some companies have depended on acquisitions to extend their reserve life, namely Total, but the big guys like ExxonMobil and Shell have been more successful in growing organically. That's not to say ExxonMobil (XOM) doesn't do deals -- it acquired natural gas producer XTO for $40 billion a couple years back -- but it doesn't depend on, nor does it actively seek out acquisitions to pump up its reserve life by a significant amount.

    To be sure, BP (BP) does have a lot of valuable assets that the majors would love to get their hands on. ExxonMobil still covets BP's Gulf of Mexico assets, for example, even after the Deepwater Horizon disaster turned the Gulf into one big oil slick for a few months. The issue comes when you start talking about absorbing all of BP, which still has operations up and down the oil value chain from the bottom tip of Africa to the top of the Artic. Combining all of those operations just seems like a headache that isn't worth the trouble, especially when companies can still replace their reserves profitably.

    Oil companies, especially ExxonMobil, are extremely conservative and aren't prone to jump into a deal unless they know they can make serious money. In the case of ExxonMobil, that is somewhere around a 35% return on average capital employed – making private equity look like underachievers.  That would mean that BP would need to be acquired at a major discount, something that BP management isn't prepared to do. While it is true that BP is trading at a major discount to it peers, with a price-to-earnings multiple of 7.1x versus 11.1x for ExxonMobil, it has always been a laggard for one reason or another.

    And while BP has successfully negotiated settlements with the government and private individuals in connection with the Gulf oil spill, it isn't out of the woods just yet. BP still needs to settle "grossly negligent" charges brought under the Clean Water Act and the Oil Pollution Act. That could cost the company as little as $5 billion to as much as $30 billion or more. A trial is set for February, so the hope is that BP settles before then so it can truly move on.

    So even if it makes economic sense to merge, don't expect a big oil deal to spoil your holidays. With a $130 billion market cap, and billions of dollars in unknown liabilities, BP remains one big toxic mess, which no oil company would want to acquire.