中国火电热拖累减排步伐

    飓风桑迪给美国东北部造成了重大损失之后，包括纽约州州长安德鲁•库默和纽约市市长迈克尔•布隆伯格在内的一些政治家强调指出，美国有必要采取更有力的措施，对抗气候变化，减少这种风暴的强度和频率。这是一种高尚且必要的努力。然而，华盛顿特区的智库世界资源研究所（World Resources Institute）发布的最新报告显示，美国及其温室气体排放，固然重要，但并不是导致全球气候变化的真正问题所在。就在美国竭力减少其碳排量之际，一股煤炭购买热潮正在席卷中国、印度、亚洲其他国家和非洲部分地区，美国在减排方面取得的任何一点进步似乎都有可能被抵销。

    在世界资源研究所发布的这份名为《全球煤炭风险评估》（Global Coal Risk Assessment）的报告中，执笔人杨爱伦和崔逸云（音译）预计，全球范围内正计划兴建1,199座煤炭发电厂，总装机容量为 1,401,278兆瓦。这个规模大约相当于建造1,400座核电厂——唯一不同于核电厂的是，燃煤发电机是最大的温室气体排放源，是导致全球气候变化的罪魁祸首之一。

    这些项目分布于59个国家，中国和印度两国约占拟建煤炭发电能力的76％。中国大约每周就会启用一座新的煤炭发电厂。同时，据国际能源机构（International Energy Agency）估计，2010年的全球煤炭消费量达到72.38亿吨（这是可获取的最新数据）。中国约占全球煤炭消费量的46%，其后是美国（13%）和印度（9%）。对于环境来说，这显然不是什么好消息。非营利机构全球碳计划（Global Carbon Project）最新发布的一份报告显示，全球温室气体排放量在2011年创下新高，预计将在2012年持续攀升。

    与中国轰轰烈烈的“煤炭之恋”形成鲜明对比的是，美国目前只计划兴建36座煤炭发电厂。鉴于美国环保署（EPA）将在奥巴马总统第二任期内实施严格的监管措施，这些发电厂几乎不可能获得兴建许可。此外，拜水力压裂技术所赐，美国现有的廉价、且相对清洁的天然气资源可供其使用100年，煤炭将不再是公用设施的首选燃料。

    中国也拥有充沛的天然气资源，但中国目前并不具备开采这种燃料的技术——应用水力压裂法很可能是若干年之后的事情了。此外，中国人正在安装大量的风能和太阳能设施，但相对于中国庞大的能源总需求而言，这些努力恐怕仅仅是杯水车薪而已。与此同时，廉价的煤炭资源依然是最受中国、印度和其他发展中国家青睐的燃料。

    我们希望公用事业公司能够设计出清洁煤炭技术，以捕捉源自这些煤炭发电厂的二氧化碳，但这种技术目前依然非常昂贵，很难看出发展中国家眼下为什么要花费巨额资金解决这个问题。如果气候变化问题要认真加以解决的话，它最终或许只能依靠捉襟见肘的西方国家提供开发清洁煤炭技术所需的资金——但这一幕不太可能赢得政治上的支持。

    译者：任文科

    In the wake of the damage wrought by Sandy in the Northeast, some politicians like New York Governor Andrew Cuomo and New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg have stressed the need to do more to battle climate change and thus reduce the intensity and frequency of such storms. This is a noble and necessary endeavor. A new report, however, by the World Resources Institute, a Washington, DC think tank, suggests that America and its green house gas emissions, while important, aren't the real problem. As the U.S. strives to cut its carbon emissions, China, India and the rest of Asian and parts of Africa are on a coal-buying binge that seems likely to more than cancel out any American progress on emissions cuts.

    In the WRI report, called Global Coal Risk Assessment, authors Ailun Yang and Yiyun Cui estimate that 1,199 new coal-fired plants, with a total installed capacity of 1,401,278 megawatts, are being proposed globally. That's the rough equivalent of building 1,400 nuclear power plants -- only unlike nuclear plants coal generators are largest emitters of greenhouse gas and one of the worst contributors to climate change.

    These projects are spread across 59 countries with China and India together accounting for 76% of the proposed new coal power capacity. China is opening about one new coal plant every week. At the same time the International Energy Agency estimates, global coal consumption reached 7,238 million tons in 2010, the latest data available. China accounted for 46% of the consumption, followed by the United States at 13%, and India with 9%. Obviously this is not good news for the environment. According to a newly released report by the nonprofit the Global Carbon Project, world-wide emissions of greenhouse gas hit a record high in 2011 and are expected to keep rising in 2012.

    To put China's love affair with coal in perspective, the U.S. currently has only 36 coal plants on the drawing board. With a second Obama term and tough EPA regulations, it's highly unlikely that any of these plants will get built. Also, thanks to fracking technology, America has as much as a 100 year supply of cheap, relatively clean natural gas that is pushing coal aside as a favorite fuel for utilities.

    China has natural gas supplies that can be tapped by fracking, but the country needs to develop the technology and know-how to tap into this fuel—and that is years off. The Chinese are also installing lots of wind and solar power, but even so this amounts to a very small percentage of the country's total energy needs. In the meantime, cheap coal is king in China, India and elsewhere in the developing world.

    One hope is that the utilities can devise clean coal technology to capture the CO2 rising from these plants but right now that technology is expensive and it hard to see why the developing world at this point will put up the money to fix the problem. If climate change is to be addressed seriously, it may in the end be up to cash-strapped Western nations to provide the funds for clean coal technology—a scenario that's unlikely to gain much political support.