医生八成工作将由科技代劳

科技将取代医生80%的工作？

    目前许多靠医生来完成的工作，比如检查、试验、诊断、开方、行为矫正等，将来都可以用传感器、主/被动数据收集及分析等技术来实现，甚至它们可以比人类医生完成得更好。但这不是说医生就可以高枕无忧了，医生需要综合利用所有数据，结合最近在诊疗中发现的问题和患者的病史，找出患者的症结所在。许多诊断和开方的工作可以由电脑来完成，甚至有可能电脑会比一般的医生做得更好——尤其是电脑会考虑更多的选择，而且犯的错误也比人类医生少。大多数医生都不可能全部读完最近5,000篇关于心脏病的研究文章，更谈不上消化理解了。而大多数医生的医疗知识都是从医学院学来的，同时受于人类认知的限制，一般的医生也不可能全部记得10,000多种人类可能患上的疾病和疗法。

    相比之下，电脑更擅长组织和回忆复杂信息，这一点连哈佛医学院毕业的顶尖医生也比不上。电脑也比一般的医生更擅长整合并均衡考虑病人的症状、病史、行为、环境因素，以及群体管理等问题。另外，别忘了还有50%的医生的医术在平均水平线以下！此外，电脑的另一个优点就是出错率要比人类低得多。难道我们不应该把这个优点用于我们的健康问题上吗？

    科技可补人力之不足，同时强化我们的力量，解放医生以及医护人员的双手，让他们做更多的事情。最终，电脑可以取代医生80%的工作，同时增强他们的医术水平。Lifecom公司的数据显示，医生助理们在使用了诊断知识引擎后，在不使用实验室、不做造影、不做检查的情况下，他们的诊断也有91%是准确的。Lifecom公司的另一项临床数据表明，在诊断知识引擎的帮助下，75%的病例可以安全地交给护士进行诊疗，剩下的25%才需要动用医生。MassGen公司的一项研究发现，25%的情况下，被医生给出“高风险诊断”的病人，在医生最终做出诊断之前，都有“大信息量的临床表现”——换句话说，就是出现了明显的拖延。而如果医生使用了临床决策支持系统来分析各种检查结果的话，这种拖延是可以避免的！

    新技术能让善于接受新事物的医生更好、更快，而且更擅于在事实基础上完成工作。如今海量的数据中隐藏着一个前所未有的巨大机会。一旦我们有了足够大的数据基础，一个可访问的医学研究数据库，我们就能以前所未有的方式，鉴定病情和病人的生理反应。

    随着时间的推移，医生将会越来越依赖科技来进行分诊、诊断和决策。最终，我们需要的医生数量会变得更少，而每个患者都会享受最好的医疗服务。诊断和治疗计划将会由电脑来完成，同时选择更加擅于护理（而不是诊断能力）的医护人员为患者提供人文关怀。我们再也不需要豪斯医生那样坏脾气的诊断天才与病人进行直接接触，而是让“电脑医生”来提供诊断，同时让最擅长人文关怀的医护人员照顾病人。

Replacing 80% of what doctors do?

    Much of what physicians do (checkups, testing, diagnosis, prescription, behavior modification, etc.) can be done better by sensors, passive and active data collection, and analytics. But, doctors aren't supposed to just measure. They're supposed to consume all that data, consider it in context of the latest medical findings and the patient's history, and figure out if something's wrong. Computers can take on much of that diagnosis and treatment and even do these functions better than the average doctor (while considering more options and making fewer errors). Most doctors couldn't possibly read and digest all of the latest 5,000 research articles on heart disease. And, most of the average doctor's medical knowledge is from when they were in medical school, while cognitive limitations prevent them from remembering the 10,000+ diseases humans can get.

    Computers are better at organizing and recalling complex information than a hotshot Harvard MD. They're also better at integrating and balancing considerations of patient symptoms, history, demeanor, environmental factors, and population management guidelines than the average physician. Besides, 50% of MDs are below average! Computers also have much lower error rates. Shouldn't we take advantage of that when it comes to our health?!

    Technology compensates for human deficiencies and amplifies our strengths – MDs and less-trained medical professionals can do more. Eventually, computers will replace 80% of what doctors do and amplify their capabilities. Lifecom showed in clinical trials that medical assistants using a diagnostic knowledge engine were 91% accurate without using labs, imaging, or exams. Another clinical study by the same company demonstrated that 75% of cases can be safely triaged to be treated by RNs, with the remainder handled by doctors. A MassGen study found that 25% of the time, a medical record for patients who wound up with 'high risk diagnoses' had 'high information clinical findings' before a physician finally made the diagnosis — in other words, there was a significant delay that might have been avoided had a clinical decision support system been used to parse the notes!

    New technologies will make the receptive doctors better at their jobs – quicker, more accurate, and more fact-based. There is a tremendous opportunity in the influx of data that has never before been available. Once we have a large enough dataset, and an addressable database of research studies, we'll be able to identify patterns and physiological interactions in ways that weren't possible before.

    Over time, doctors will increase their reliance on technology for triage, diagnosis, and decision-making. Eventually, we'll need fewer doctors, and every patient will receive the best care. Diagnosis and treatment planning will be done by a computer, used in concert with empathetic support from medical personnel selected more for their caring personalities than for their diagnostic abilities. No brilliant diagnostician with bad manners, a la "Dr. House," will be needed in direct patient contact. Instead, we'll use "Dr. Algorithm" to provide the diagnosis, while the most humane humans provide the care.