Adobe的云战略能否成功？

    尽管如此，Adobe在营销领域的努力意味着它必须要和IBM、微软、甲骨文（Oracle）和谷歌等财大气粗的企业进行竞争，这些公司在企业软件市场上的经验要比Adobe更加丰富。随着Adobe的收费模式由出售包装软件向云服务转变，他们之间的竞争还远没有结束，而这也是Adobe面临的最大的不确定性因素。分析师古德曼彻指出：“我们不知道明年的情况会怎么样，也不知道它能否成功吸引更多用户。”

    纳拉延和林奇对这种怀疑表示不屑，他们说，更糟糕的情况他们也见过。两年前，Adobe曾与已故苹果CEO史蒂夫•乔布斯进行过一场论战，乔帮主拒绝在iPhone和iPad上支持Flash，而且曾公开贬低Adobe的Flash技术。Adobe最终输掉了与苹果的口水战，并于去年停止了针对移动浏览器的Flash研发，转向开源平台以及由苹果和谷歌领衔的HTML5技术。福雷斯特公司的分析师杰弗里•哈蒙德说：“现实是，与苹果的论战给了Adobe沉重打击，而且他们也从中汲取了教训。”

    Adobe公司在2011年11月宣布了它的后Flash时代战略，同时宣布了公司的重组计划，将数字营销和Creative Cloud作为公司的重中之重。虽然最吸引眼球的是Adobe与苹果的Flash大战，但事实上，Adobe公司的前途，却与当天宣布的其它计划紧紧地系在一起。纳拉延说，随着软件的演变，Adobe也会随之演变。现在Adobe必须证明自己有保持业务增长的能力。

    译者：朴成奎

    Still, Adobe's marketing push means going up against deep-pocketed companies like IBM, Microsoft, Oracle (ORCL), and Google -- all of which are more experienced in the enterprise software market. As for the shift from boxed software to subscriptions: It is far from over. In fact, it is the company's greatest source of uncertainty. "We won't know for another year," notes analyst Goldmacher, "whether it will bring more users into their franchise."

    Narayen and Lynch shrug off that skepticism, saying they've seen worse. Recall that two years ago Adobe was engaged in a high-profile war of words with Apple CEO Steve Jobs. Jobs refused to support Adobe's ubiquitous Flash standard on iPhones and iPads -- and he wasn't shy about publicly berating the technology. Adobe ultimately lost the battle and last year moved to put the controversy behind it by ceasing Flash development for mobile browsers and embracing open-source platforms and the HTML5 web standard championed by Apple and Google. "The reality was that the fight with Apple smacked them hard, and they learned from it," says Forrester analyst Jeffrey Hammond.

    Adobe's post-Flash strategy was announced in November 2011, alongside the restructuring that made digital marketing and Creative Cloud the company's top priorities. It was, of course, the Flash news, with its notes of melodrama, that grabbed headlines. As it turns out, the company's future is tied to the other plans announced that day. Narayen says that as software changes, so will Adobe. Now it must show that that will keep its business growing.