美国建筑业怪现象

    经济与市场预测机构IHS环球透视（IHS Global Insight）的经济学家奈杰尔·高尔特表示，政府可能少算了从事相对较新工作的建筑队数量。每月就业报告以两份调查为基础，一份为家庭调查，用于确定失业率；另外一份则为公司调查，用于计算增加和减少的工作岗位总量。

    建筑商通常会雇佣分包商负责粉刷、水管设施等工作，而由于这些工作的雇主通常是规模更小、更年轻的公司，因此统计中并未将这些工作计算在内。我们可能要等到几个月之后才能弄明白美国劳工部的统计数据，确定建筑行业的具体就业率。另外一种情况可能是房地产萧条带来的剩余效应——建筑工人短缺。要知道，经济衰退期间，数百万人离开了建筑行业。

    即便如此，也不可能造成这么大的差别。总体就业中，建筑业仅占一小部分。私营行业超过1.11亿份工作中，建筑类仅占约550,000个。

    诚然，健康的房地产市场应该能刺激美国总体经济，毕竟美国人的财富与其住房有着直接联系。这也向从零售到生产各个领域的美国公司发出信号，美国消费者消费的可能性在增加。而反过来，公司管理者也会增加投资和招聘。

    这一次，经济周期可能会出现不同的结果。由于“大衰退”的影响太过深远，有人曾经表示，房地产市场会对总体经济产生更有意义的推动作用，“房地产业必将会是一针兴奋剂。”

    译者：刘进龙/汪皓

    The government may be undercounting construction crews who've taken on relatively new jobs, says Nigel Gault, economist at IHS Global Insight. The monthly jobs report is based on two surveys -- one polling households, which determines the unemployment rate; the other businesses, which calculates the overall number of jobs added and lost.

    Because builders typically hire subcontractors to do everything from painting to plumbing, many of those jobs may not be accounted for since they work for smaller and newer firms. It may take several months before we know exactly how many jobs in construction have been created as the Labor Department catches on. It could also be a shortage of construction workers -- the residual effect of the housing bust when millions left construction amid the economic downturn.

    Even then, that might not make that much of a difference. Construction jobs make up only a small part of the employment picture. Of the more than 111 million jobs in the private sector, construction reflects roughly 550,000.

    To be sure, a healthy housing market is supposed to stimulate the overall economy because Americans' wealth is closely linked to their homes. It signals to corporate America -- from retailers to manufacturers -- that consumers are more likely to spend. In turn, executives invest and hire more. And so on.

    This time, the business cycle may pan out differently. Since the Great Recession was so deep, some have said "housing would have to be on steroids" to give the economy a meaningful boost.