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美联储大动作的风险

美联储大动作的风险

Mohamed A. El-Erian 2012-12-17
上周,美联储增加了市场证券购买力度,还改变了远期政策指引的量化指标(失业率与通胀)。美联储的举措肯定是必要的。但是,美联储日益激进的行为具有一定的限制性,而且从根本上来说,它们与市场经济的有效运行并不一致。

    第三,它将威胁美联储的机构可信度与合法性。美联储可能受到更严重的政治干预,并且将惹怒美国的海外盟友。

    当然,这并不意味着美联储会作茧自缚。相反,此次应该被视为美联储向争吵不休的政客们发出的清晰、明确的信息。华盛顿不应该自欺欺人,认为美联储能长期调和国会职责与国家经济福祉之间的关系。

    即便美联储愿意冒险深入试验模式(很明显,它已经这么做了),但要想实现好的、可持续的经济成果,依然困难重重。如今,它的最佳选择是,为仍在扯皮的政客们争取时间,尽快达成共识。

    希望华盛顿能够充分利用美联储的新举措,也希望美国国会最终能够承担起经济管理职责。如果我们的期望落空,美国经济可能会陷入更糟糕的境地:受到市场扭曲和无效资本分配的进一步阻碍,无法实现高增长,难以增加就业机会,最终导致美联储的可信度、合法性和未来效力受到损害。

    译者:刘进龙/汪皓

    Third, all this threatens the institutional credibility and legitimacy of the Fed. It also exposes it to greater political interference and will anger America's friends and allies abroad.

    This is not necessarily to say that the Fed should have refrained from doing what it did. Instead, it should be read as yet another very loud and clear message to our bickering politicians. Washington should not fool itself into thinking that the Fed can maintain for long a wedge between Congress' responsibilities and the economic wellbeing of the nation.

    Even if it is willing to venture ever deeper into experimental mode -- and clearly it is -- the central bank is hard-pressed to deliver good and sustainable economic outcomes. The best it can do is buy time for our politicians who continuously fail to compromise and to reach agreement on a way forward.

    Let us hope that this new Fed window will be used well by Washington, and that Congress will finally step up to its economic management responsibilities. If this does not materialize, the economy could risk ending up in a worse place: failing to generate high growth and job creation, further hampered by market distortions and inefficient capital allocations, and having damaged the credibility, legitimacy and future effectiveness of the Fed.

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