2012年最离谱的11项预测

美国国债上涨

    2011年，债券大师比尔•格罗斯因为预测失误而陷入麻烦：他原本预计投资者将厌倦投资美国国债获得的微不足道的收益，逃离这种超安全证券。今年，轮到鲍勃•杜尔押错宝了。这位前黑石（BlackRock）策略师总是发布下一年的10项预测，因此很容易中招。但他看空美国国债是一个很大的错误。

    想想今年1月初，10年期美国国债的收益率为1.97%。十二个月后收益率降至1.84%，12月初甚至一度下探1.59%。有很多因素推低美国国债收益率：受惊吓的投资者、财政悬崖和美联储（Fed）为刺激美国经济发展而保持低利率的扭曲操作政策。杜尔或许能想起那句市场至理名言：不要跟美联储对着干。

Treasuries rise

    What got bond guru Bill Gross into trouble last year was the prediction that investors would tire of puny Treasury yields and flee the ultra-safe securities. This year it was Bob Doll's turn to make the losing bet. The former BlackRock strategist always publishes his list of 10 predictions for the next year, so it's easy to pick on him. But his bet against Treasuries represents a notable mistake.

    Consider that in the beginning of January, the 10-year Treasury yielded 1.97%. Twelve months later the rate has fallen to 1.84% after dipping as low as 1.59% earlier in December. There was plenty to keep rates driving lower: spooked investors, the fiscal cliff, and the Fed's Operation Twist policy that is supposed to stoke the economy with low rates. Doll might recall a market truism: you can't fight the Fed.