2013年美国楼市五大动向

买房经济压力上升

    五年前，美国住宅市场泡沫破裂，造就了最廉价的买入时机。房地产网站Trulia的租赁与购房报告显示，在美国很多地方，哪怕是像纽约、火奴鲁鲁等价格最贵的市场中，购房成本也已低于租房。按揭贷款利率创下新低，也使得买房更能承受。

    但这种情况正在发生变化。房价在2012年触底回升。这一刻终于到来！虽然这告诉我们房地产市场在复苏，但也意味着2013年买房压力将上升。11月份，卖房挂牌价同比上涨3.8%，为2007年住房市场崩溃以来最大的同比涨幅之一。虽然全美范围内房租涨幅仍快于房价涨幅，但在Trulia调查的25个最大租房市场（包括丹佛、西雅图和旧金山）中，有14个市场的这个趋势已经扭转。

涨不涨别看房价，看就业率

    大多数人都会看房价来衡量住宅市场健康与否。但这并不适用于2012年。价格上涨不一定意味着行业整体好转。Trulia的首席经济学家杰德•科尔科表示，要看明年房市怎么样更好的办法是看就业增长率。

    拉斯维加斯、迈阿密和凤凰城等城市的房价已经大涨，但涨势能持续多久并不清楚。房价上涨一部分是因为过去跌了太多，还有一部分是因为很多住房仍处于止赎程序中。这些城市也处于全美一些失业率最高的州，失业率与人们的购买能力息息相关。

    科尔科列出了他预测的2013年最健康的10个市场。得克萨斯州的城市占了大部分，让我们祝贺它吧。

贷款拖欠率下降（非常缓慢地）

    陷入困境的美国房地产市场存在的一大问题就是创纪录的止赎水平。因此，经济学家们非常关注贷款拖欠率；房屋所有人拖欠还款是止赎的先兆。全美范围内，按揭贷款拖欠率自2006年的1.49%连涨12个季度后，在2009年的最后三个月达到了6.89%的峰值。

    截至最近的一个季度，拖欠率已经下降至5.41%。预计2013年拖欠率可能继续缓慢下行至2%左右。很多拖欠来自于拖欠已超过一年的原有借款人，并非遵循更严格贷款标准的新借款人。预计降幅最大的几个州将是内华达州、明尼苏达州、加州和亚利桑那州。

Buying gets less affordable

    The bust of the housing market five years ago created one of the cheapest times to buy. Across many parts of the U.S., even in some of the priciest markets including New York and Honolulu, it has become cheaper to purchase a home than rent, according to Trulia's Rent vs Buy report. Record-low interest rates on mortgages have also made buying more affordable.

    That's changing, however. In 2012, prices hit bottom. Finally! While that tells us the market is healing, it could also mean buying will be less affordable in 2013. Asking prices for homes for sale rose 3.8% in November from a year earlier -- one of the biggest gains since the housing market crashed in 2007. While rents nationwide are still rising faster than home prices, the trend has reversed in 14 of Trulia's 25 biggest rental markets including Denver, Seattle and San Francisco.

Watch for rising jobs, not rising prices

    Most of us watched home prices to gauge the health of the housing market. That was so 2012, however. Just because prices are rising doesn't necessarily mean the industry is doing any better. Next year, a better pulse of the market will be the rate of jobs growth, says Jed Kolko, chief economist with Trulia.

    Cities like Las Vegas, Miami and Phoenix have seen home prices surge, but it's uncertain how long that could last. Prices have risen, partly because they fell so much and also because many homes are still undergoing the foreclosure process. They're also cities in states with some of the highest rates of unemployment, which ties closely to how well people will be positioned to buy.

    For 2013, Kolko has spotted 10 cities where he thinks the market will be healthiest. CongratsTexas, you make up the bulk of them!

Delinquencies fall (very slowly)

    The troubled housing market was marked by record foreclosures, which is why economists closely watch the rate at which homeowners are late on their payments -- they're a precursor to foreclosures. Nationwide, the delinquency rate on mortgages peaked during the last three months of 2009 at 6.89%, after rising 12 quarters in a row from 1.49% in 2006.

    As of the latest quarter, the delinquency rate dropped to 5.41%. And for 2013, it's expected to continue dropping -- albeit, slowly to around 2%. Much of the late payments are made up of existing borrowers more than a year late on their payments, as opposed to new borrowers following stricter lending standards. Some of the biggest declines are expected in Nevada, Minnesota, California and Arizona.