2013年美国楼市五大动向
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创纪录的低利率 低利率当然也助推了住房市场的复苏。过去几年，30年期定息按揭贷款的平均利率已降至新低。虽然12月份尚未结束，2012年平均利率为3.68%，低于2011年的4.45%和2010年的4.69%。 当然，利率不可能永远这么低。因此，有些人担心如果未来利率上升，可能再度推低房价。但如果美联储（Federal Reserve）坚持己见，短期内应该不会出现这样的情况。美联储在最近的一次会议上不寻常地表示，只要通胀保持低水平，就会维持现行利率不变，直到失业率降至6.5%之下。按照美联储的预测，这意味着利率将保持低位直至2015年。 首次购房者 2012年美国住房市场的反弹有目共睹，但不是所有人都搭上了这趟顺风车。很多首次购房者都错过了这次机会——他们要么是处于失业，要么是拿不到住房贷款，或者两者兼而有之。 这些首次购房者通常年龄在25岁至34岁，在经济衰退后的几年来经历的失业状况比其他大多数成年人更糟。一年前，年轻工作者的失业率为9.2%，所有成年人的失业率为8.7%。最近，这个差距已经收窄。11月份，年轻工作者的失业率已经降至7.9%，而所有成年人的失业率为7.7%。 如果这股趋势持续，或许能帮助首次购房者重新入市购房。 译者：早稻米 |
Record-low interest rates Cheap money has certainly helped the housing market recover. For the past few years, average interest rates on 30-year-fixed mortgages fell to new lows. With December remaining, rates this year averaged 3.68%, lower than the average 4.45% for 2011 and 4.69% in 2010. To be sure, rates can't stay low forever. Which is why some have worried a return to higher rates could push home prices down again. But if the Federal Reserve has its way, that won't happen any time soon. In an unusual move during its last meeting of the year, the central bank's policy-making board decided to leave rates untouched until the unemployment rate falls to 6.5% so long as inflation stays low. Which means, according to the Fed's predictions, rates will likely stay low into 2015. First-time buyers The housing market's rebound was hard to miss this year, but not everyone rode the wave to better days. Missing were first-time buyers -- many of whom were either jobless or couldn't get a home loan or both. Those who tend to be first-time buyers, 25 to 34-year-olds, suffered far worse joblessness than most other adults in the years following the recession. A year ago, unemployment among young workers was 9.2% versus 8.7% for all adults. The gap has narrowed recently. In November, unemployment among young workers had fallen to 7.9% versus 7.7% for all adults. If the trend continues, this might help bring first-time buyers back into the market. |
