智能手机：中国下一个重要的经济指标

    中国智能手机的兴起也令传统的科技层级出现了倒挂。虽然谷歌在中国搜索市场并不是一个重要的竞争者，但它却主宰着中国的智能手机操作系统市场。谷歌的安卓系统目前霸占了中国市场67%的占有率；相比之下，苹果的iOS系统的市场占有率只有10%。安卓在中国的成功也是付出了很大代价才换来的。安卓提供的很多谷歌服务在中国被禁，因此这些服务在大多数手机上是无法使用的。相反，这些手机上的很多服务却是来自谷歌的竞争对手。

    苹果CEO蒂姆•库克近期造访了中国。据他预测，几年之内，中国将成为苹果公司最大的市场。但苹果在中国的市场占有率与谷歌相差太大，要想赶上、哪怕是拉近这种差距，无疑都是一个艰难的挑战。苹果或许能通过平板电脑或其它设备的跨平台应用程序加强它在中国市场上的地位。苹果电视（Apple TV）的出现也许也会对苹果的占有率起促进作用，因为中国的网络带宽目前正在快速增长，而且中国人对国内外影视内容的需求也可谓如饥似渴。

    估计在接下来的两个季度之内，三星（Samsung）就将超过诺基亚（Nokia），成为中国智能手机市场份额的霸主。对最近在全球许多市场都遭到打击的诺基亚来说，痛失中国市场霸主宝座无疑又给它平添了更多压力。虽说最近凭借Lumia系列手机的成功，诺基亚在其它市场上获得了优于预期的收益成果，但它在中国却正面临丢城失地的局面。

    中国本土厂商近来也在频频发力。华为（Huawei）、中兴（ZTE）和联想（Lenovo）各占据了中国智能手机市场约6%至8%的份额。中国宇龙通信（Yulong/China Wireless）的子公司酷派（CoolPad）在国际上的知名度并不高，却控制了中国10%的智能手机市场，中国联通（China Unicom）也力推酷派的手机。酷派手机模仿了许多大品牌手机的功能，而价格却更低。而且有趣的是，华为、中兴和酷派现在已经开始在美国智能手机市场上争夺市场份额了。到目前为止，酷派是这三家中国厂商中唯一一家成功在美发布产品的公司。华为、中兴、联想和酷派都携产品在上周的消费电子展（CES）上隆重亮相。

    那么，这一切意味着什么呢？它意味着，全世界将在今年见证一个独特的现象。全球最大的移动消费市场已经初现雏形，新的网上和网下消费模式会很快出现，而能够把握住这次机会的品牌，或许能以一种戏剧性的方式，改变他们的市场份额。

    到2015年，中国的智能手机用户将超过美国和欧洲智能手机用户之和。这种转变是史无前例的。随着中国把重心转移到国内消费上，中国庞大的移动消费群体无疑将对经济起到巨大的推进作用，而它将在全球引发连锁反应。（财富中文网）

    本文作者是一位创业公司投资人，也是Dice.com的共同创始人和前任CEO。

    译者：朴成奎

    The smartphone sector in China is also upending traditional technology hierarchies. While Google is not a significant player in search in China, it dominates the smartphone OS market. Android maintains some 67% of market share to date in China. In contrast, Apple's (AAPL) iOS only holds 10% of the market. Google's success with Android in China may be somewhat of a Pyrrhic victory, however, since most of the phones do not feature Google services that have been banned in China. Instead these smartphones highlight services from Google's competitors.

    Apple's Tim Cook, meanwhile, was in China recently and predicted that it will be the company's largest market within a few years. This may be true, but Apple has a tough challenge unseating Android or even coming close to its adoption levels in China. Apple may be able to strengthen its position through cross-platform apps running on their tablets and other devices. A killer Apple TV wouldn't hurt either in a country where internet bandwidth is growing quickly, and there is a thirst for domestic and foreign TV content.

    In China, Samsung is set to edge out Nokia (NOK) within the next quarter or two for the largest market share of smartphones. This will put further pressure on the struggling company which isalready under attack in many of its global markets. Nokia is enjoying some success with its Lumia smartphones in other markets which led to better-than-expected earnings results, but it is losing ground in China.

    Then there are the locals. Huawei, ZTE and Lenovo each command between 6% and 8% of the Chinese smartphone market. A less well-known entrant controlling 10% of the market is CoolPadwhich is a subsidiary of Yulong/China Wireless and sold by China Unicom. The Coolpad smartphones mimic many of the features of big brand phones at a lower price point. Interestingly, Huawei, ZTE and Coolpad are all now vying for a share of the US smartphone market. So far, Coolpad has been the only one of the three to successfully launch its products in the US. All four companies had significant presences at CES which wrapped up last week.

    So what does it all mean? The world is about to witness a unique phenomenon this year. The largest single mobile consumer market is now emerging. New online and offline consumption patterns will rapidly take shape and brands that jump on this wave can change their market share in a dramatic way.

    By 2015, the number of smartphone users in China will exceed all mobile users in the US and Europe combined. There are no precedents for this kind of shift. As China turns its focus to domestic consumption, the largest mobile consumer base will no doubt play a large role as an economic driver. And that will have ripple effects around the world.

    Jack Hidary is a startup investor and co-founder and former CEO of Dice.com (DHX).