苹果面临重蹈覆辙的风险

    显然，苹果已经习惯于保持其操作系统的神秘性，以此迫使应用开发商和程序开发商按它的意愿行事。此外，苹果还拒绝其他手机制造商使用其iOS系统，这意味着只有苹果产品可以访问iTunes和iOS应用商店。苹果占据智能手机市场主导地位的时候，这当然是很好的做法，但现在却变成了绝对愚蠢的招数。谷歌的安卓操作系统虽然不如iOS系统美观，但经过一段时间的发展，在整个智能手机市场已经随处可见。诺基亚（Nokia）已经放弃了自己的操作系统，Palm操作系统也已成昨日黄花，动态研究公司（Research in Motion）和微软（Microsoft）则仍在苦苦挣扎。

    如果苹果足够聪明的话，应该回顾一下二十年前。当时，它正在与IBM争夺对个人电脑市场的控制权。与今天一样，苹果对其计算机架构和操作系统也是守口如瓶，拒绝与其他制造商分享。而与此同时，开发商要想获得苹果认证，也要经过层层考验。

    可IBM却利用一种开放架构和已上市的部件来生产其个人电脑，并使用微软的Windows操作系统。最终，其他计算机硬件制造商纷纷转投PC架构阵营，并开始使用微软的Windows平台。虽然与苹果的封闭系统相比，最初复制IBM的Windows电脑在外观上相形见绌；但它们更便宜，也更方便程序员操作。最终PC与苹果电脑不相上下，甚至占据了上风。截至上世纪八十年代末，运行中的PC数量大幅超过苹果电脑。

    如果不是有了iPhone手机，苹果现在可能还是一家小众电脑制造商。是iPhone使苹果变成一家内容分销商，使其达到了其他公司难以企及的规模。然而，它对于随意性规定的刻意坚持，以及其封闭、保密的文化，已经开始威胁自身的利润。虽然iPhone仍然是最出色的产品，但现在已经有各种不同价位的智能手机可供消费者选择。虽然不是全部，但其中大多数均运行谷歌的安卓操作系统。

    今天，苹果要确保不再重蹈上世纪八十年代的覆辙，可以从几个方面入手。首先，开放其iOS操作系统，这样其他制造商便可将其整合到各自的智能手机当中。而这会为iTunes带来更多客户。此外，苹果还可以生产符合不同价位的更多手机。毕竟，iPhone只是一台内容传送装置——网络中的用户越多，收入便会越多。如果苹果继续我行我素，延续当前的做法，必将遭受重大损失。（财富中文网）

    译者：刘进龙/汪皓

    Apple has defined itself by keeping its operating system close to its chest, forcing app developers and program makers to bend to its wishes. It has also refused to allow other phone makers to use its iOS, meaning that only Apple products can access iTunes and the iOS app store. That was fine when Apple dominated the smartphone market but it's downright foolish now. Google's (GOOG) Android operating system, while not as elegant as Apple's iOS, has come a long way and has permeated pretty much the entire smartphone market. Nokia (NOK) abandoned its OS, Palm is gone, and Research in Motion (RIMM) and Microsoft (MSFT) continue to struggle.

    Apple would be wise to look back two decades when it was locked in a war to control the personal computer market with IBM. Like today, Apple kept its computer architecture and OS close to its chest, refusing to share it with other manufacturers while at the same time making program developers jump through a lot of hoops to get Apple certified.

    Meanwhile, IBM built its PC using an open architecture with off-the-shelf parts using Microsoft's Windows OS to drive its machine. Eventually, all the other computer hardware manufacturers consolidated behind the PC architecture and started using Microsoft's Windows platform as well. While those first IBM clones running Windows weren't as elegant as Apple's closed system; they were cheaper and easier for programmers to manipulate. Eventually PCs became as good as or arguably better than anything out of Cupertino. The number of PCs in operation by the end of the 1980s vastly outnumbered Apple computers.

    If it weren't for the iPhone, Apple today would be a niche computer maker. The iPhone has turned Apple into a distributer of content, making it richer than anyone ever imagined. But its rigid adherence to its arbitrary rules and its secretive and closed culture is beginning to threaten Apple's profits. While the iPhone remains an amazing piece of machinery, there are now a host of other smartphone options available to consumers across various price points – most, if not all, of them running Google's Android operating system.

    There are a number of things Apple could do today to ensure it doesn't relive its 1980s meltdown. It could for one open up its iOS so that other manufacturers could integrate it with their phone. This will bring a new line of customers into the iTunes orbit. It could also create a larger line of phones to fit a multitude of price points. After all, the iPhone is simply a delivery device for content—the more people you have on your network, the larger your revenue. If Apple continues on its current path, it could lose—a lot.