中国左右全球奢侈品市场未来？

    总之，在过去几个月，中国奢侈品零售已经大幅减少。据香港统计处（Hong Kong Census & Statistics Department）统计，2011年中期，珠宝首饰、腕表和钟表的零售额每月的增长幅度均高于总体零售额的增长速度，至年中已经达到50%的年均增长速度。但截至2012年1月，该领域的增长速度放缓，甚至低于总体零售额增长幅度。至去年十月之前的七个月中，奢侈品零售有五个月实际处于下滑趋势。

    即便如此，高盛仍坚持其看涨的预测。

    分析师威廉•哈钦斯在近期的一份报告中称：“2012年，中国奢侈品需求放缓，大多数公司在中国仅出现了个位数中段至略高于两位数的增长速度。我们相信这种放缓实际掩盖了潜在的趋势，因为随着欧元贬值，欧洲游更加火爆，随之而来的是很大一部分需求从亚洲转移到了欧洲。”

    但假如批评家的预测是正确的，中国中产阶级突然不再购买奢侈品，奢侈品公司股票又会如何呢？不妨看看高盛的粗略分析：高盛估算，中国中产阶级占全球奢侈品需求的7%。我们以历峰集团（该公司拒绝对本文发表评论）为例。该公司市值为290亿欧元（386亿美元），据高盛预测，它今年收入约为102亿欧元（136亿美元），但如果突然失去中国中产阶级消费者，公司销售额可能减少7亿欧元（9.32亿美元）。我们将其转换成股价，假设其他条件不变，一位投资者在未计利息、税金、折旧、摊销11倍市盈率时买进该公司股票，并与10倍市盈率时买进股票进行对比。这已经是过去几年历峰集团股票的最高市盈率。

    当然，这种分析并不完美。中产阶级不可能集体流失或突然之间流失。零售商早先的报告显示，第四季度销售额实际出现上涨。高盛还预测，至2025年，中国中产阶级将占全球奢侈品需求的17%。既然这种超速增长已经被作为股价的考虑因素，一旦需求减少，股价的下跌幅度可能更大。

    许多公司一反常态，在投资者警觉之前提前敲响了警钟。去年九月，博柏利（Burberry）针对其利润发出警告，很大程度上是因为公司在中国的销售放缓。博柏利首席财务官史黛丝•卡特莱特当时对《华尔街日报》（Wall Street Journal ）称：“我们的同行不见得有这种感觉。但我们肯定不是唯一的一家。亚洲市场确实出现了放缓趋势，主要是中国市场。”

    去年，历峰集团董事长兼首席执行官约翰•鲁伯特承认，公司极易受到某个具体市场的影响，这种情况很危险。约翰•鲁伯特说：“我感觉自己像是坐在火山山顶享受晚餐一样。未来的10年或是20年，某个市场就会像火山一样爆发。中国市场对我们意义重大。”（财富中文网）

    译者：刘进龙/汪皓

    All told, luxury retail sales in China have slowed dramatically over the past several months. In mid-2011, retail sales growth for jewelry, watches, and clocks grew faster every month than retail sales overall, hitting nearly 50% annual growth in mid-2011, according to statistics from the Hong Kong Census & Statistics Department. But by January 2012, growth in this segment slowed to a slower pace than retail sales. In five of the last seven months leading up to October last year, luxury retail sales actually declined.

    Goldman Sachs stands by its bullish estimates, even in light of this.

    "In 2012, luxury demand in China has slowed, with most companies now reporting mid-single-digit to low-double-digit growth rates in the country," analyst William Hutchings said in a recent report. "We believe that this slowdown has masked the underlying trends, as there has been a significant transfer of demand from Asia to Europe as the take-off in travel trends has coincided with a weaker euro."

    But what would happen to luxury stocks if the critics were right, and middle-class Chinese consumers suddenly stopped buying these goods? Consider this back-of-the-envelope analysis: Goldman Sachs estimates that the Chinese middle class contribute 7% of global demand for luxury goods. Let's assume this is the case for Richemont, who declined to comment for this article. The €29 billion ($38.6 billion) company should make €10.2 billion ($13.6 billion) in revenue this year, according to Goldman Sachs, but sales would fall by €700 million ($932 million) if the Chinese middle-class buyer suddenly went away. Let that work its way into valuation, assuming everything else stays the same, and an investor would be buying the stock at 11 times earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization, versus 10 times. That's the top of where Richemont has traded for the last several years.

    Of course, this analysis isn't perfect. The middle class probably wouldn't go away altogether, or all of a sudden. And some early reports from retailers show that fourth quarter sales may have actually picked up. But Goldman also estimates that the Chinese middle class could contribute as much as 17% of global demand by 2025. To the extent that this hyper growth is already being factored into the stock price, it could fall even more dramatically if demand tapered off.

    In a somewhat odd break from the norm, companies are sounding the alarm ahead of investors. Last September, Burberry (BBRYF) issued a warning on its profits, partly because sales were slowing in China. "It's not necessarily being felt by all of our peers, but we're certainly not alone," Burberry Chief Financial Officer Stacey Cartwright told the Wall Street Journal at the time. "Yes, we are seeing a slowdown in Asia, and yes, China is a significant contributor to that."

    Last year, the chief executive of Richemont Johann Rupert admitted that the company may be dangerously vulnerable to one market. "I feel like I'm having a black tie dinner on top of a volcano," said Johann Rupert, executive chairman and CEO. "There is a volcano somewhere, whether it's this year, in ten years' time, or in twenty years' time. We are exposed to China."