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达沃斯愁云未散

达沃斯愁云未散

Nina Easton 2013-01-28
达沃斯论坛刚刚闭幕,尽管其主题是 “为持久发展注入活力”,但根据《财富》特派记者的观察,2013全球经济前景未明,再加上近年频发的自然灾害,多数与会者的的神经都绷得太紧了,达沃斯的对话和研究报告里无不是混乱、脆弱等辞令。或许预示着我们将继续迎来艰险的一年。

    在美国,CEO们还担心税负增加,以及884页的多德-弗兰克法案(Dodd-Frank)带来的监管不确定性[据报告称,其长度是格拉斯-斯蒂格尔法案(Glass-Steagall)的23倍]。

    世界经济论坛与沃顿商学院(Wharton School)、牛津大学(Oxford)和苏黎世保险公司(Zurich Insurance Co.)等合作,发布了其对全球风险的看法,开篇即谈论收入严重不平等的后果。

    接下来,这份报告还列出了一些重大风险,包括未经过滤的互联网信息高速传播可能引爆群体性恐慌——在当今社会,它造成的危害可能远超1938年基于乔治•威尔斯的小说《世界大战》(The War of the Worlds)改编而成的广播剧风波,当年以假乱真的广播剧曾让成千上万的听众误以为美国真的已被火星人入侵而仓皇出逃。

    除此之外,还有致命性细菌,其发展速度可能超越医药行业生产下一代抗生素的速度,引发一轮致命的流行性疫情。

    在这些纷繁的烦忧之中,幸好还有一些令人心生希望的消息:2013年Edelman Trust Barometer对全球26个市场31,000名受访者进行的调查显示,公众对政府和企业的信赖在上升。

    坏消息是(当然,一定会有坏消息):绝对信赖度仍处于让人沮丧的低位。

    In the U.S., CEOs add to that equation their fears of higher taxes and the regulatory uncertainty caused by the 884-page Dodd Frank financial legislation (23 times as long as Glass-Steagall was, the report notes).

    The World Economic Forum, in partnership with the Wharton School, Oxford and Zurich Insurance Co., among others, released its own take on global risks, starting with the fallout from severe income inequality.

    That report goes on to catalog a set of nerve-wracking fears, including the possibility that hyper-fast, unfiltered Internet communication could set off a firestorm wave of panic—a modern day, and far more destructive, version of the 1948 radio adaption of H.G. Wells novel The War of the Worlds that convinced listeners the U.S. had been invaded by Martians.

    And topping that: Killer bacteria, outpacing medicine's ability to produce new generations of antibiotics, could fuel a deadly pandemic.

    Against this grim backdrop is some hopeful news: The 2013 Edelman Trust Barometer, a survey of 31,000 respondents in 26 markets around the globe, shows that public trust in government and business is on the rise.

    The bad news (and, of course, there must be bad news): Those levels of trust remain depressingly low.

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