西方世界错失中东三大良机

    首先，关于战争的报道让西方人看不到中东地区同样显著的经济发展趋势。十多年来，土耳其、埃及和沙特等国的宏观潜力一直都能跻身增长型市场前十之列，而且几乎每项统计都会得出这样的结论。纳克维说：“即使是今天，这些国家今后五年的年增长率预计仍能达到5%。所以，接下来的问题只应该是这一点对各个行业的投资需求意味着什么。”

    他说，设想一下，光是建筑、零售和医疗行业就会有怎样的机会。“未来三年，沙特的新建住宅需求超过一百万套；在较大的地区性经济体，信用卡和借记卡普及率正从很低的起点开始呈几何级数增长；海湾国家的医院床位将在今后15年翻番。不身处其中，人们就无法理解这一切。这就是为什么我们在所经营的市场中一直保持着非常高的本地化程度。”

    其次，全球经济力量显然正在经历一次由西到东的大转移，从某种程度上说政治力量也是如此，而中东目前的情况正是这次大转移的一部分。一个很好的例证就是，Abraaj Group通过50多家公司向非洲投入了15亿美元资金。纳克维指出，全球增长最快的十个国家有七个在非洲。管理咨询公司麦肯锡（McKinsey）预计，到2060年，非洲将有6亿（）中产阶层消费者。这对中东有什么影响呢？纳克维微笑着回答：“中东把中国、印度和非洲连在一起。正是出于这个原因，中东才会有世界上盈利水平最高的航空公司之一——阿联酋航空（Emirates Airlines）和全球最大的港口之一——杰贝•阿里（Jebel Ali）港。随着亚洲和非洲的增长，我认为中东在全球经济中的作用只会越来越大。”

    第三，人口结构变化和新生代的渴望正在为中东的创业活动翻开全新篇章。纳克维说：“15%的中东人都在25岁以下，其中许多人目前都处于贫困状态。这是个非常大的挑战，但同时几乎所有人都希望提高自己的社会地位。”

    纳克维相信，借助技术和对事业的开拓，这些新生代正通过一种新的方式来表明他们正在把握自己的机遇，纳克维和他的团队每周都能看到这样的场面。

    纳克维认为，曲解现状还会让人错失中东等增长型市场所特有的互补性发展趋势。

    随着东西方经济实力对比发生变化，城市变得越发重要。纳克维感叹道：“增长型市场每年的城市扩张规模都相当于八个纽约市，其中25个城市的人口数量就能超过整个美国。”它代表着14亿潜在中产阶层——14亿较容易吸引的新生消费者。

    消费者有需求的时候，企业就会挺身而出。对纳克维来说，“企业社会责任”不仅仅是一个公关口号。在他看来，对任何企业来说，责任都和盈利同样重要。今天，所有的利益相关者都会要求企业具有包容性并能以创新方式来解决问题，今后将更是如此。这些利益相关者不仅包括消费者、投资者和企业员工等传统成员，还包括他们居住或接触到的社区。

    The first is that the narratives of war blind the West to equally clear economic trends in the region. For over a decade, in macro terms, countries like Turkey, Egypt and Saudi Arabia have been consistently ranked in the top ten growth markets in terms of potential across almost every survey. "Even today," Naqvi notes, "These countries are expected to grow at 5% per annum over the next five years. So the next question should only be what this means in terms of the investment requirements in specific various sectors."

    Consider the opportunities for the construction, retail and health care industries alone, Naqvi says. "There is demand for more than a million houses to be built in Saudi Arabia over the next three years; credit and debit card penetration is rising exponentially from a small base in the larger regional economies; hospital beds will double in the Gulf countries over the next fifteen years. One cannot understand this from afar. That's why we remain very local in the markets in which we operate."

    Second, what is happening in the Middle East is part of a significant and clear shift in global economic and, to some extent political, power from West to East. Africa, where Abraaj has deployed $1.5 billion across over fifty companies, is a case in point. Seven out of ten of the world's fastest-growing countries are in Africa, Naqvi notes, and McKinsey estimates that by 2060 there will be 600 million middle class consumers on the continent. How will this affect the Middle East? "The Middle East is what connects China and India to Africa," he smiles. "It is for this reason that the region is home to one of the most profitable airlines, Emirates Airlines, and one of the largest ports in the world, Jebel Ali. As Asia and Africa continue to grow I only see a greater role for the Middle East in the global economy."

    Third, the demographic shifts and desires of the new generation are unleashing an entirely new era of entrepreneurship in the Middle East. "Fifty percent of the population here is below 25 and many are currently underprivileged," he says. "This is very challenging, but at the same time virtually all have aspirations for social mobility."

    Naqvi believes that what the new generation is doing with technology, and in the start-up businesses he and his team see every week, is a new expression of their taking control of their own opportunities.

    For Naqvi, misunderstanding these current realities also leads to missing additional and complementary trends tailor-made for growth markets like the Middle East.

    As economic strength shifts west to east, it is progressively more urban. "Every year cities are expanding in growth markets to the tune of eight New York cities," he marvels. "Twenty five cities in these markets represent more than the entire population of the U.S. This represents a potential middle class of 1.4 billion people – 1.4 billion new, relatively easy-to-reach consumers."

    And business themselves will step up as consumers demand it. For Naqvi, "corporate social responsibility" is not merely a term of public relations but it's a component of any company as important as making profit. All stakeholders today and increasingly in the future -- traditional ones like customers, investors and employees, but also the communities where they live or touch virtually -- will simply demand a sense of inclusiveness and, again, innovative problem solving.