一瓶酒里的中国问题

    茅台酒是不会轻易放低姿态的，无论是在股市还是在其他方面。茅台酒醇香馥郁、清冽甘爽，历史可回溯到中国宋代。但最近这个备受欢迎的白酒品牌已经陷入困境。

    它的遭遇始于去年11月末，当时有报道称，另一家较小型白酒生产商——酒鬼酒——所生产的高粱酒中发现有毒污染物。总部设在广州的报纸《21世纪经济报道》（ 21st Century Business Herald ）的相关报道促使中国食品监管部门展开了调查，证实酒鬼酒的几种白酒产品塑化剂邻苯二甲酸二丁酯含量超标。消息传出后，白酒类股股价大跌 。

    到了12月初，开始有传言称，贵州茅台酒股份有限公司（Kweichow Moutai Co.，简称：贵州茅台）也在处理类似的污染问题。按市值衡量，该公司是中国最大的白酒 生产商。一位新浪博客在网上公布的测试结果（这些测试结果还没有被官方监管机构证实）显示茅台酒含塑化剂。总部设在仁怀市的贵州茅台针对上述传闻做出了霸气十足的回应，但并没有打消外界的质疑。贵州茅台的一位代表在公告中称：“贵州茅台不会、也完全没有必要送产品去做检测。”

    贵州茅台股价迅猛下跌，到12月中旬不得不停牌。去年7月份触及峰值以来，这家公司的股价已经累计下跌了28%。

    贵州茅台是中国餐饮界众所周知的 “国酒”，是高级别国宴用酒，并且仍然是人们馈赠给政府官员的首选礼品。在高档场所，如北京丽思卡尔顿酒店（Ritz-Carlton ），一瓶50年茅台陈酿的价格高达78,888元（约合12,700美元）。在当地的烟酒店，中低端的飞天茅台酒价格约为每瓶1,500元（约合240美元）。

    就像几乎所有奢侈品牌一样，贵州茅台凭借它与众不同的光环而区别于竞争对手。茅台的神话可以追溯到当年红军长征途径贵州省山区期间。当时红军在茅台镇扎营，品尝了当地的高粱酒。但是，茅台酒作为奢侈品的魅力主要还是由1955年至1993年期间人们没有得到满足的欲望所催生的。当时，在计划经济体制下，人们只能通过分配到的购物票证购物。

    其中，粮票很少能用来买酒。城市居民动则需要排队数小时用现金和票证换取食用油和粮食等必需品。有些单位最多可能会额外提供节日购物票证用于购买西瓜子、咸花生和带鱼等。茅台从未列入必需品的清单。

    因此，当贵州茅台面对持续的质量质疑，股价暴跌以及销售放缓等问题时，公司迅速求助于它最有力的伙伴们。

    在12月中旬的一个经销商会议上，贵州茅台推出了设定价格下限的市场配额政策。例如，这家公司要求，53度飞天茅台的零售价不能低于1,519元每瓶。公司一位代表在会议上称，违规的经销商将面临罚款或取消合同等处罚。

    政府终于介入此事。贵州茅台于1月16日称，将收回“保价令”。此外，国家发展和改革委员会（the National Development and Reform Commission，简称：发改委 ）也就有关贵州茅台不公平做法的投诉展开了调查。

    与此同时，中国领导层最近出现的调整可能会导致贵州茅台核心消费者——政府官员——数量下降。由于习近平计划推进反腐败议程，人们猜测贵州茅台可能会在未来 数年遭受重大打击。几十年来，贵州茅台标志性的白色陶瓷瓶已经成为公款吃喝的代名词。的确，中国“三公消费”（ 指政府部门人员在因公出境经费、公务车购置及运行费、公务招待费产生的消费）经常能看到茅台的身影。中国中央军事委员会（China's Central Military Commission）在2012年12月发出通知，要求在接待工作中不安排豪华宴请、不饮酒等。各省级政府也发布了类似公告。

    可以肯定的是，过去旨在减少政府官员奢侈消费的举措都以失败告终，但一些分析人士坚持认为，这次政府是认真的。华泰证券（Huatai Securities）1月30日发布报告称，预计房地产、奢侈品和白酒行业将受到中国中央政府新一轮反腐败斗争的冲击。

    因此，贵州茅台在蛇年里还会继续苦苦挣扎吗？也许吧，但只有这家国有企业愿意做一些改变，才可能脱离困境。不过，现在看来，它不会放弃前进的冲动，正如它现在的状态一样。谈及该公司最近的困境时，贵州茅台董事长袁仁国在一月下旬的一个省政府会议上称：“雨过总会天晴。”（财富中文网）

    译者：默默

    Maotai is one liquor that refuses to go down easy -- on stock exchanges or otherwise. It is big-flavored and bracing, with a history that reaches back to China's Song dynasty. But recently, the popular Chinese spirit has fallen on hard times.

    It began with the discovery of toxic contaminants in other sorghum-based liquors at the end of November made by a smaller producer, Jiugui Liquor. A report in the Guangzhou-based newspaper 21st Century Business Herald led to an investigation by China's food safety regulator, which confirmed excessive levels of the plasticizer dibutyl phthalate in several of the company's products. The liquor industry in China took a beating in the stock market in the wake of the news.

    By early December, rumors began to circulate that Kweichow Moutai Co., China's biggest liquor producer by market value, was also dealing with similar contamination problems, based on test results posted by a blogger on Sina.com (these results have not been confirmed by official regulators). The Renhuai-based company took a high-handed tone in addressing the rumors, which did little to smooth things over. "Moutai does not have the obligation to, nor does it intend to, test the products in question," said a company representative in a statement.

    Kweichow Moutai's share price slid so fast that it suspended trading of its stock in mid-December. The company has seen a 28% share price drop from a peak last year in July.

    Kweichow Moutai, which is known as the "national liquor" in restaurants across China, is imbibed at high-level state banquets and still holds currency as a preferred gift for government officials. At upscale locations such as the Ritz-Carlton in Beijing, a 50-year vintage goes for $78,888 yuan (about $12,700 USD) per bottle. A bottle at a local liquor shop for the lower-end Feitian can go for roughly $1,500 yuan ($240 USD).

    Like just about any luxury brand, Kweichow Moutai differentiates itself from competitors through its aura of exclusivity. Maotai's mythical roots go back to the hillsides of Guizhou Province, when the Red Army made camp in the eponymous township during the Long March and sampled the local sorghum brew. But much of the liquor's luxury power has been fueled by unsatisfied desires stemming from a centrally planned economy that issued ration coupons for purchases from 1955 to 1993.

    The tickets, called "liangpiao," seldom covered liquor. Urbanites would wait in line for hours to exchange cash and ration tickets for staples like cooking oil and grain. At best, a work unit might add coupons for dried watermelon seeds, salted peanuts, and a ribbonfish for the holiday dinner table. Maotai never made it to the list of essentials.

    So when Kweichow Moutai came face-to-face with persistent questions over quality, a plummeting stock price, and slower sales, the company quickly leaned on its most potent associations for assistance.

    At a distributor's conference in mid-December, Kweichow Moutai rolled out market allocation policies in the form of a price-fixing plan. Among other restrictions, the popular 106-proof Feitian could not fall below 1,519 yuan per bottle at retail shops, the company decreed. A company representative stated at the conference that non-compliant dealers would be punished with either fines or cancelled contracts.

    The government finally stepped in. On January 16, Kweichow Moutai said it would retract its base price requirements. And China's top economic planner, the National Development and Reform Commission, launched an investigation into complaints of unfair practices by Kweichow Moutai.

    Meanwhile, recent changes among China's leadership may lead to a decline in Kweichow Moutai's core consumers: government officials. Xi Jinping plans to pursue an anti-corruption agenda, which has raised speculation that the Kweichow Moutai could take a major hit in the years to come. For decades, the iconic white ceramic bottle has been synonymous with long, boozy dinners paid for by the state. Indeed, Maotai falls under what is called the "three publics," a reference to expenditures by officials that include overseas visits, government vehicles, and entertainment. China's Central Military Commission announced in December that it would seek to cut down on entertainment expenses by banning expensive liquor at banquets, and provincial governments have since made similar announcements.

    To be sure, initiatives to cut down on luxury spending by government officials have failed in the past, but some analysts are adamant that the government means business this time. Brokerage firm Huatai Securities issued a report January 30 stating it expected the real estate, luxury goods, and liquor industries to take a hit amid the renewed anti-corruption campaign by China's central government.

    So will Kweichow Moutai continue to struggle during the year of the snake? Perhaps, but only if the state-owned company is willing to make some changes. For now, though, it looks like the company won't be abandoning its urge to push forward, just as it is. On the company's recent woes, Kweichow Moutai Chairman Yuan Renguo said at a provincial government meeting in late January, "After the rain always comes the sun."