移动业务将迎来高速增长时代

    2012年，大约有一半的移动流量被固定网络通过WiFi和其他连接分流，这个比例很可能会继续上升，因为运营商分级定价的数据套餐变得更加昂贵。加上只连接WiFi的平板电脑和苹果公司（Apple）的iPod等设备，实际传输到移动设备上的数据其实大大高于这些报告的结果。思科估计，移动设备通过WiFi网络获得的数据比从蜂窝网络获得的数据高3倍。

    不过，就纯粹的移动服务的使用而言，这些数据彰显了我们都知道的东西——移动互联网时代仍处于发展早期。至于我们的日常行为还将如何继续改变，其中的不确定性要高得多，不过趋势还是提供了一些线索。

    根据第三方研究，思科预计，移动平均连接速度将因为全球4G网络部署的增长而得到提高。亚太地区的增速将更快，当地连接速度将以每年57%的幅度上升，到2017年将达到3 兆。在北美，连接速度每年将提高41%，不过均速要快得多，平均将达到14兆。这将为高清视频在移动网络上的普及铺平道路。思科预计，5年后视频将占移动流量的三分之二，而去年为二分之一。视频聊天、GPS应用程序、掌上游戏和其他应用程序也会促进移动网络的需求增长。

    当然，所有这一切也要取决于其他因素，如固定网络的带宽增加、更广泛和可靠的无线网络的扩展以及——最重要的——无线数据套餐的分级定价。昂贵的无线数据套餐已经促使人们更多地使用固网WiFi。如果这个趋势继续下去，移动互联网将继续改变我们的日常生活，但无线运营商将在这场革命中被边缘化。（财富中文网）

    译者：默默

    Roughly half of mobile traffic in 2012 was offloaded onto fixed networks through WiFi and other connections, a percentage that is likely to increase as tiered data plans grow more expensive. Add in WiFi-only tablets and devices like Apple's (AAPL) iPod Touch, and the actual amount of data being pulled onto mobile devices is considerably higher than what these reports are indicating. Cisco estimates that mobile devices draw four times as much data from WiFi networks as they do from cellular networks.

    In terms of sheer mobile usage, however, the data underscores something we all know -- that the era of the mobile web is still in the early innings. What is much less certain is how that will continue to change our daily behaviors, although trends offer some hints.

    Drawing on third-party research, Cisco estimated that the growth of 4G networks around the world will boost average connection speeds. The growth will be faster in Asia Pacific, where speed will increase by 57% a year to 3 Mbps in 2017. In North America, speeds will increase 41% a year but will on average be much faster, averaging 14 Mbps. That may pave the way for high-definition video to grow more commonplace on mobile networks. Cisco expects video, which accounted for half of mobile traffic last year, to make up two-thirds of it in five years. Video chats, GPS apps, handheld games, and other applications could add to the demand for mobile networks as well.

    Of course, all of this depends on other factors too, such as the increased bandwidth of fixed networks, the expansion of broader and reliable WiFi networks and -- above all -- the tiered pricing of wireless-data plans. Costly wireless plans are already driving people to fixed WiFi networks. If that continues, the mobile web will continue to change our everyday lives, but leave the wireless carriers a peripheral part of the revolution.