股神好像不那么爱股票了

    上周五下午公布的致伯克希尔•哈撒韦公司（Berkshire Hathaway）股东年度公开信中，巴菲特说，他仍然相信美国股市“会好起来”。他说，他在第二次世界大战最凄凉的时候购买了人生中的第一只股票，因此，即使目前形势看起来没有那么好，投资者最终还是会好起来。

    但我们还是将这封信与去年的信对比一下吧。在去年的公开信中，巴菲特用了三页半的文字（超过1,900字）详细解释了他认为股票比黄金和债券投资价值高得多的理由。（参见《沃伦•巴菲特：股票为什么跑赢黄金和债券》）。他还说，他看好美国住房市场。

    而这一次他只用了四段话谈股票投资。即便在这么小的篇幅内，巴菲特还说，投资者应该预计到周期性的打击，而且他还列出了两项可能预示着一场风波提前来临的统计数据。

    巴菲特指出，道琼斯工业平均指数在20世纪的涨幅达到了惊人的17320%，尽管期间经历了“四次代价巨大的战争、大萧条和许多次经济衰退。”这里存在一个问题：巴菲特说，在几乎同一时期，人均国内生产总值（GDP）增幅约为500%，要少得多。

    巴菲特以前就用过这种针对经济和股市估值的比较。2001年，他为《财富》杂志撰文并介绍了这个指标。（参见《沃伦•巴菲特论股市》）。那时，美国股市已经小幅脱离了互联网泡沫行情的高点。但巴菲特当时说，还不能买入股票。原因是：尽管股价下滑，但当时美国股市整体估值占美国GDP的133%【巴菲特用的是国民生产总值（GNP），因为它可以追溯到80年前，但对于近期数据，GDP也好用。】

    那么，现在美国股市的表现如何？不妨先猜一下。结果是：占GDP的133%。

    这个指标曾经在1999年达到高点190%。因此，我们还远远没有达到恐慌水平，但是，这并不意味着美国股市目前是安全的。事实上，它的安全性很低。早在2001年，巴菲特曾说过，在股市估值占GDP比降至70%至80%的区间内买进股票的投资者应该表现不错。这意味着美国股市要暴跌43%才会到达巴菲特建议买进的水平。

    即便如此，巴菲特似乎并不担心。在他自己的投资组合中，巴菲特在过去一年中增持了沃尔玛公司（Wal-Mart）和富国银行（Wells Fargo）。这两家公司的股票只有在经济和市场其余部分也上行的时候才会上涨。

    很难说这是因为巴菲特认为股票廉价，还是因为其他投资选择更糟糕。 “不参加这场（股市）游戏的风险要远大于参与其中的风险，”巴菲特在信中写道。“所有明天向来都是不明朗的。”（财富中文网）

    译者：默默

    In his annual letter to Berkshire Hathaway (BRKA) shareholders, released Friday afternoon, Buffett says he still believes U.S. stocks will "do well." He notes that he made his first stock purchase during the bleakest part of World War II, so even if things look not so great right now, you should end up doing fine as well.

    But compare that to last year's letter. Buffett devoted three and a half pages - over 1,900 words - to a detailed explanation of why he thought stocks were a much better investment than say gold or bonds. (See Warren Buffett: Why stocks beat gold and bonds.) He also said he wasbullish on U.S. housing.

    This time around he devotes four paragraphs to the case for stocks. And even in that small space, Buffett says that investors should expect periodic setbacks, and he includes two statistics that could signal one may be coming up sooner rather than later.

    Buffett points out that the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose "a staggering" 17,320% in the 20th century -- despite "four costly wars, a Great Depression and numerous recessions." Here's the problem: During nearly the same period, Buffett says GDP per capita rose much less about 500%.

    Buffett has used this comparison of the economy to stock market valuations before. He featured the metric in a story he wrote for Fortune back in 2001. (See Warren Buffett on the stock market) By that time, stocks had already fallen a bit from their dot-com infused highs. But they still weren't a buy, Buffett said at the time. Despite their fall, stocks collectively were trading at a value of 133% of the gross national product of the U.S. (Buffett used GNP because it goes back 80 years, but for recent history using GDP works just fine.)

    So where are stocks trading today? You guessed it. 133% of GDP.

    The metric hit a high of 190% back in 1999. So we are a little ways from panic territory, but that doesn't mean the market is a safe place to be right now. Far from it. Back in 2001, Buffett said investors who buy when the relationship of stock values to the economy falls in the 70% to 80% range should do well. That means stocks would have to plummet 43% before we are back in Buffett buy territory.

    Even so, Buffett doesn't appear to be worried. In his own portfolio, Buffett in the past year has added to his stakes in Wal-Mart (WMT) and Wells Fargo (WFC), two companies that are likely to go up only if the economy and the rest of the market does as well.

    It's hard to tell if that's because Buffett believes stocks are cheap, or just because he believes the other investing options are worse. "The risks of being out of the [stock market] game are huge compared to the risks of being in it," writes Buffett in the letter. "Every tomorrow has been uncertain."