查韦斯之死救不了委内瑞拉石油业

    新规定和今天大抵相仿，要求外国投资者与委内瑞拉石油公司合作，而后者将占有60%的所有权。仅占40%所有权的外国公司却需要进行100%的投资。此外，外国公司盈利必须缴纳50%的税费和33%的特许开采费。噢，投资者还必须同意，将来一旦发生与政府所有权相关的争端，将由委内瑞拉法庭审理，而不是那些令人讨厌的、公正的国际仲裁法庭。

    不过即便风险/回报率如此离谱，委内瑞拉还是声称已经把奥里诺科河的36块地拍卖给了21个国家的27家公司。这些公司大多是来自伊朗、白俄罗斯和古巴一些稀奇古怪的国有或政府控制的石油公司。不过一些大型上市石油公司，比如西班牙的雷普索尔（Repsol）、巴西的巴西石油公司、意大利的埃尼集团（Eni）和法国的道达尔（Total）也持有了股份。甚至连雪佛龙也占了一块——尽管只是很小的一块。

    找一些国外合伙人来帮忙承担风险合情合理，但查韦斯做得太过分了，尤其是这些合伙人几乎没有在油砂上勘探的经验。实际上，这次分工看起来更像是奇怪的公关噱头，而不是真正的劳动分工。因此了解到目前奥里诺科河的钻探工程没什么大动静，也就不足为奇了。尽管委内瑞拉石油公司称已经和俄罗斯和越南合作开始钻井，报告的初期产量却简直微不足道。与此同时，据传印度的石油天然气公司（ONGC）和其他几家公司已经开始停止任何投入，直到委内瑞拉的政治局势变得明朗。可以打赌，即使是委内瑞拉最坚实的盟友，比如在过去几年给查韦斯政权借债460亿美元的中国，也会加入暂时观望的队伍。

    很难看到在接下来几个月内委内瑞拉的石油产业能有所变化。查韦斯设立的政治机构看起来根深蒂固，此时可能需要一场全面的革命才能彻底抹去他们的影响。然而，委内瑞拉的石油开采已经接近了转折点。政府无法继续依靠委内瑞拉石油公司偿还债务。它需要国外真正具有经验的合作伙伴介入，帮助它提振产量。

    这意味着需要重新引入像康菲这样的公司。在2007年被扫地出门前，康菲是委内瑞拉最大的国外运营商。他们拥有工程师和专业技能，可以让委内瑞拉的石油钻探迅速取得进展。委内瑞拉还需要明智地同赫斯基公司（Husky）、森科尔公司（Suncor）、加拿大油砂作业公司（Syncrude）和尼克森公司（Nexen）协商。这些公司在加拿大的亚达巴斯卡河（Athabasca）油砂区都有丰富的作业经验。

    为了吸引合适的人才，委内瑞拉需要在物权法和税法上做出重大的改变。公司在投资时必须有安全感，因此需要有绝对的安全和法律保障。不过即便委内瑞拉的新任领导在石油公司的所有权要求上让步，短期内很可能也不会有任何实质性的钻探。查韦斯已经摧毁了这个国家的信誉，而想要赢回信任仍然需要时日。所以一个月后，委内瑞拉人民投票选举新的领袖时，他们最好明智些，选择一位能够忍气吞声的领袖。（财富中文网）

    译者：严匡正

    The new rules, which are more or less the same today, require foreign investors to form partnerships with PDVSA in which the state-owned oil company would have a 60% ownership. The foreign company, which would have 40% ownership, would still have to fund 100% of the investment. Furthermore, whatever the foreign company made would be subject to a 50% tax rate and a 33% royalty (tax). Oh, and investors must agree that any dispute that may arise in the future concerning their ownership with the government will be heard by Venezuelan courts, not those pesky impartial international arbitration courts.

    But while the risk/reward ratio is clearly off, Venezuela says that it has auctioned off 36 lease blocks in the Orinoco to 27 companies hailing from 21 nations. Most are bizarre state-owned or controlled oil companies from places like Iran, Belorussia, and Cuba. But some of the big publicly traded oil companies like Spain's Repsol, Brazil's Petrobras, Italy's Eni and France's Total have stakes as well. Even Chevron was allocated a block -- albeit a small one.

    While it makes sense to have a few foreign partners to help to spread out the risk, one can go too far, especially when those partners have pretty much zero experience working with oil sands. Indeed, this split looks more like a bizarre public relations stunt than a real division of labor. It should therefore come as no surprise to learn that there isn't too much drilling going on in the Orinoco right now. While PDVSA says that it has started to drill wells with its Russian and Vietnamese partners, the initial production numbers reported are trivial. Meanwhile, India's ONGC and several other companies are reportedly holding back from investing any more cash until there is some clarity as to the political situation in the country. You can bet even Venezuela's staunchest allies, like China, which has loaned the Chavez regime some $46 billion in the last few years, will be among those taking a breather.

    It is difficult to see what, if anything, could change in Venezuela's oil industry in the next few months. The political apparatus Chavez has set up seems fully entrenched. It would probably take a full-fledged revolution for it to be wiped out at this point. Nevertheless, Venezuela is nearing a breaking point when it comes to oil production. The government cannot continue to rely on PDVSA to pay its bills. It needs real foreign partners with real experience to come in and help it boost production.

    That means bringing back companies like ConocoPhilips, which before getting the boot in 2007, was the largest foreign operator in the country. They have the engineers and know-how to help Venezuela quickly get off the ground. Venezuela would be wise to also consult with oil companies like Husky, Suncor (SU), Syncrude and Nexen, all of which have extensive experience working in Canada's vast Athabasca oil sands.

    To lure the right talent, Venezuela needs to make some serious changes to its ownership and tax laws. Companies must feel safe to make their investments so security and legal protections will need to be ironclad. But even if Venezuela's new leaders give in to all of the oil companies' demands, it will probably be a while before you see any real drilling. Chavez obliterated the nation's credibility, and it will take some time for Venezuela to earn back that trust. So when Venezuelans go to the polls in a month to choose their new leader, they would be wise to choose someone who knows how to eat a big helping of humble pie.