中国房地产业难逃“清算日”

    中国经济2013年的开局与往年如出一辙。它在前两个月的增长基本都是拜出口业和房地产业的推动所赐。而建筑业增长背后的动力则源自信贷。当前的发展轨迹如果持续下去，必将给中国的经济体制带来更多债务和风险。

    与前一年相比，中国一、二月份的城市投资增加了21%，增速超过2012年全年的增长速度。中国城市人口的日益膨胀，许多在建的基础设施都不可或缺。但令人担忧的是房地产投资。虽然中国政府一直在努力控制房地产投机活动，但住宅投资增幅仍然高达23%，而2012年全年仅有11%。

    增长背后的推动力便是信贷。随着“社会总融资”的增加，房地产开发也开始出现波动。所谓社会总融资不仅包括银行贷款与债券，还包括公司间贷款和信托公司提供的资金。今年一、二月份，社会总融资年比增长了79%。

    但所有这些贷款并没有进入普通人的腰包。根据公认存在缺陷的零售业销售标准，中国的消费仍然相对疲软。零售销售的增长速度仅有房地产投资的一半左右。服装与汽车的销售从去年就已经开始放缓；日用品、食品、烟草和家具销售的增长处于两年以来的最低水平。

    算术学告诉我们，这样的增长不可能持久。如果过去两个月的贷款增长按现有速度持续下去，中国将为2013年的经济注入约22万亿元资金，这个数字比前一年增加了37%。虽然这或许能让中国再次实现7.5%的官方增长目标，但中国所付出的代价将是金融风险进一步累积。

    去年，许多持看跌态度的投资者认为，中国的房地产市场将彻底崩溃，但他们的预期并没有变成现实。社会融资的惊人增长便是主要原因。最新数据显示，虽然具体时间难以预测，但中国房地产行业的“清算日”似乎仍然不可避免。（财富中文网）

    译者：刘进龙/汪皓

    China began 2013 with the same old economic model. Growth for the first two months of the year was driven mainly by exports and real estate. The increase in construction appears to have been fueled by credit. The current trajectory can continue only by pumping ever more leverage, and risk, into the system.

    Investment in cities was up 21% compared to the previous year in January and February -- faster than the whole of 2012. Some of the infrastructure that is being built will become necessary as China's urban population swells. But the worrying bit is property investment. Even as the government tries to rein in real estate speculation, investment in residences increased by 23%, compared with 11% for the whole of 2012.

    That growth is being driven by credit. Property development tends to fluctuate with the growth of "total social financing": a measure that includes not only bank credit and bonds but also inter-company loans and funding from trust companies. During January and February, it grew 79% year on year.

    All that lending, though, isn't trickling down to the man on the street. Consumption looks relatively weak, based on the admittedly flawed metric of retail sales. These grew at around half the rate of property investment. Sales of clothes and cars slowed from last year; growth in everyday items, food, tobacco, and furniture were the worst in two years.

    Arithmetic suggests this can't last. If the past two months' lending run rate continues, China will pump almost 22 trillion yuan of new financing into the economy in 2013 -- a 37% increase over the previous year. While this may allow the country to once again meet its official growth target of 7.5%, it will have been achieved at the expense of an ever greater build-up of financial risk.

    Last year, many bearish investors bet on a Chinese property market crash that didn't materialize. The startling rise in social financing was the main reason why. The latest data suggests that while the timing may be hard to predict, an eventual reckoning still looks inevitable.