全球变暖有望打通北极新航道

  史密斯认为，到本世纪中叶，在北极地区，船体未加固的开放水域船只将变得更加常见。“这些地方能够激发人的想象力，”他说。“19世纪末，为了寻找欧洲和东方之间的最短路线，许多勇敢的探险家试图横穿西北航道和北海航线，最终殒命。未来，越来越多的普通船只会渴望进入这个水域。”

虽然西北航道是北美东部和亚洲之间的最短路线，但它不可能成为穿越北极的主要航道，曾经担任过破冰船船长的布里格姆教授说。但“未来将有许多船只进出加拿大北极地区，很可能是一些从巴芬岛向欧洲运送铁矿石的散装货轮。”

“不管是今天还是未来，北极航运的主要推动力都源自北极自然资源的开发——北极航运将这些自然资源带向全球市场，”布里格姆补充说。“正如我们观察到的那样，海冰退却延长了航行季节，拓展了海上通道，但全球大宗商品价格和经济，才是驱动未来北极航运发展的决定性力量。”

随着西北航道和北极的开放，一些船只将有望避开俄罗斯的专属经济区（Exclusive Economic Zone）：俄罗斯向通过这一区域的船只征收高昂的强制性护送费。史密斯说，尽管航行于监管不那么严苛的国际水域可降低成本，但它也会导致环境和安全问题。“情况既让人兴奋，又令人担忧，”他说。“北极一直是一个非常危险的地方，未来也不会改变。到了冬天，冰层始终会再次出现。北极黑暗且遥远。我们现在只能预言，在未来几年中，北方国家将不得不应对更多的巡逻、搜索、救援和安全问题。”（财富中文网）

译者：任文科

    Smith thinks that unreinforced open-water ships could become far more common in the Arctic by mid-century. "These places capture the imagination," he says. "Many intrepid explorers died seeking clear passage through both the Northwest Passage and the Northern Sea Route in the late nineteenth century while looking for the shortest route between Europe and the Orient, as it was known then. Temptation will grow for ordinary vessels to enter these waters."

    Although the NWP is the shortest route from northeastern North America to Asia, it will likely never be used for major shipping on trans-Arctic voyages, says Brigham, who is a former icebreaker captain. But, "there will be many future voyages of ships in and out of the Canadian Arctic, likely bulk carriers carrying iron ore to Europe from Baffin Island."

    "The driver of most Arctic shipping today and in the future is Arctic natural resource developments -- the linkages of Arctic natural resources to global markets," Brigham adds. "Sea ice retreats as observed in the Arctic provide for longer navigation seasons and marine access, but global commodities prices and economics drive the essence of Arctic shipping in the future."

    As the Northwest Passage and the North Pole open up, some ships will be able to avoid Russia's Exclusive Economic Zone; Russia charges steep fees for mandatory escorts through this zone. Although navigating through less-regulated international waters could cut costs, Smith says environmental and safety issues will emerge. "It's both exciting and worrisome," he says. "The Arctic is a dangerous place and always will be. The ice will always return in winter. It's dark. It's remote. Let's just say the northern countries are going to have some patrolling, search-and-rescue, and security issues on their hands in the coming years."