塞浦路斯“危机”可能长不了

    市场对援助塞浦路斯反应过度，目前的“危机”态势将很快过去。

    简要介绍一下最新情况，塞浦路斯议会已将针对援助计划的投票推迟到周二。按照这项援助计划，塞浦路斯银行中10万欧元（80.5万元人民币）以上的银行存款须缴纳9.9%的一次性税款，少于这一数字的存款则按6.75%的税率纳税。国内方面，这个方案面临很大阻力，原因是塞银行业和政治以及银行腐败息息相关，而这让塞浦路斯成为俄罗斯人的洗钱乐园。因此，目前公众舆论认为，如果普通存款人一定要交税的话，塞国内处于垄断地位的几家大银行所承担的税款应远远超过前者。

    在国外，为获得援助而向存款人（而不是主权债券持有人等方面）征税开创了一个危险的先例，让整个欧元区的储户人人自危。我们预计欧盟官员将通过讲话来平息存款税激起的波澜，他们还会传递出这样的信号，那就是，鉴于银行体系内部的腐败行为，塞浦路斯的情况既特殊，又极端。

    请注意，周一是塞浦路斯假日，有消息称银行歇业时间将至少延长到周三，以免塞议会本周就大约10亿欧元（80.5亿元人民币）的援助方案条款进行投票时出现资金外逃局面。昨天早间，《华尔街日报》(Wall Street Journal)援引一位官员的话报道，按照新的建议，存款少于10万欧元（80.5万元人民币）的储户将缴纳3%的税款；存款在10-50万欧元（80.5-402.5万元人民币）之间的储户纳税10%；存款超过50万欧元（402.5万元人民币）的储户纳税15%。虽然我们无从知晓报道的准确性，但看来塞政府可能对大额存款执行较高税率，从而盯住来自俄罗斯的大储户。同时，塞政府还可能有必要采取临时性限制措施，防止存款流入其他国家，具体情况将取决于塞政府所制定的税率。

    媒体正在大肆报道此事，我们做了一些摘要供大家参考。

    • 塞浦路斯的银行业规模约为其经济的九倍，要解决资金问题，外界就得向塞浦路斯提供帮助，这个问题在几个月之前就已经很清楚。

    • 如果此前确定了170亿欧元（1,368.5亿元人民币）的援助计划，我们认为市场就不会出现如此消极的走势。我们预计市场将摆脱这个问题的影响，原因是小储户的存款税负担可能减轻，而且欧盟政府的公关部门将向整个欧洲保证，今后的援助行动不会牵涉到存款。

    • 虽然德国总理默克尔希望将本次援助推迟到9月份她当选之后，但目前的方案对她来说是一次政治上的胜利。原因何在？

    • 让塞浦路斯承担一部分援助资金【约58亿欧元（466.9亿元人民币）】并将提供给塞浦路斯的贷款从大约170亿欧元（1,368.5亿元人民币）削减到100亿欧元（805亿元人民币），这在默克尔的支持者看来是个利好消息。原因是，德国在援助资金中所占的份额最大。此外，如果现在对塞浦路斯伸出援手，那就可以在9月份德国大选前早早地把这个问题掩盖起来。

    The market's reaction to Cyprus's bailout is overdone and these 'crisis' conditions will be short lived.

    A quick update on the latest development is that parliament has delayed until Tuesday a scheduled vote on the proposed bailout, namely on the levying of a one-time tax of 9.9% on Cypriot bank deposits of more than €100K and a tax of 6.75% on smaller deposits.

    Internally there's much pushback on the scheme as the country's banking system is tied with political and banking corruption that allows a home for Russian money laundering. It is therefore playing out on the streets that "oligarchs" banking in Cyprus should pay disproportionately more versus average deposit holders, if the latter should play at all.

    Externally, the move to tax deposit holders for bailout packages (versus for example sovereign bond holders) sets a dangerous precedent that throws fear across Eurozone deposit holders. We expect Eurocrats to rhetorically smooth over the deposit levy and signal that Cyprus is a unique and extreme case given the inner workings of its corrupt banking system.

    Note that Monday is a holiday in Cyprus and there's talk that a bank holiday will be extended at least to Wednesday to prevent capital flight as the terms around a €10B bailout are voted on this week. This morning the Wall Street Journal cited an official that said the new proposal will allow depositors with less than €100K to be taxed at 3%, savers with €100K-€500K taxed at 10%, and those with over €500K taxed at 15%. While we cannot know the accuracy of this citation, it appears likely that the government will tax higher deposits at a higher rate to go after large Russian deposit holders. Depending on the crafting of the levy it would also seem probable that temporary restrictive measure may have to be put in place to prevent the flight of deposits to other countries.

    Here are some take-aways to consider as the media runs hard with this story.

    • It has been clear for many months that Cyprus would need external assistance to repair the country's finances, a country with a banking system some eight times larger than the economy.

    • Had a flat €17B bailout package been crafted, we would not have expected such a negative market move. We think the market will move past this development as terms around the deposit levy are likely mitigated for smaller deposit holders and the EU PR machine assures Pan-Europe that its deposits would not be considered for future bailouts.

    • While Chancellor Merkel was hoping to delay the bailout until after her election in September, this deal is a political win for her. Why?

    • Having Cyprus cover a portion of the bailout (~€5.8B) and a loan reduced to €10B instead of an estimated €17B looks good for Merkel's constituency as Germany is writing the biggest portion of the bailout checks. Further, a bailout of Cyprus now allows the issue to be swept under the rug well before German elections in September.