波音、空客竞争可能激化

    2011年，波音公司（Boeing）高级副总裁雷•康纳与印尼航空公司狮子航空（Lion Air）CEO拉斯蒂•基拉那在巴厘岛签署了一份协议，美国总统奥巴马亲自参加了签约仪式。这份协议给这家美国飞机制造商带来了约220亿美元的生意。狮子航空是急速发展的东南亚市场一家低成本航空公司，一直都是波音的客户。

    本周，同样的一幕再次上演，只是时过境迁，其中一方仍是基拉那，但与他签约的却变成了波音公司的竞争对手空客公司（Airbus）CEO法布里斯•布雷吉尔。出席仪式的也不再是奥巴马，而是变成了法国总统弗朗索瓦•奥朗德。

    晨星公司（Morningstar）分析师尼尔•迪赫拉认为，通常情况下，低成本航空公司不会像狮子航空公司这样轻易改变商业上的忠诚，因为维护和使用两种不同类型飞机的成本太高。那么，狮子航空为何会做出这种改变？这对波音公司又意味着什么？

    对波音来说，最糟糕的情况是：梦想号飞机的电池故障让它的信誉受损，蒂尔集团（Teal Group）副总裁理查德•阿波拉弗亚说道。但他又补充道，这种可能性极小。所有新机型在推出的时候都会存在问题，而最终通常都会得到分析师和消费者的谅解。此外，波音公司的业务非常庞大，市场价值约为650亿美元。而且，全球仅有两家公司有能力供应100座以上的飞机，波音公司便是其一，另外一家则是空中客车。

    过去一年对波音而言意义重大。今年一月的报告显示，波音公司在2012年交付飞机总量超过了空客。波音交付飞机数量达到创纪录的601架，紧随其后的空客公司交付了588架。

    此外，两家公司均有大批业务尚未交付。虽然两家公司都交付了约600架飞机，但每家公司未完成的订单仍有超过4,000架。这在很大程度上是因为两家公司都通过转包商生产飞机的大部分部件，而且两家公司实际上聘用的都是同一批转包商。因此，不论航空公司和其他客户订购多少飞机，这些供应商在一定时间内生产的飞机部件总是有限的。

    由于订单积压，狮子航空这种发展迅速的小型公司虽然希望进行机队多样化，但要想采购到飞机，通常并不容易。

    迪赫拉建议，要想加快采购速度，方法之一便是签署一笔引人注目的大订单，例如2011年220亿美元的订单，和本周新签署的240亿美元的订单。从最单纯的角度来看，狮子航空最近与空客的交易只是表明它希望同时从波音公司和空客两家公司订购飞机，因为仅靠一家公司无法满足它的需求。阿波拉弗亚认为，另外一种可能性是，这家小公司在挑起这两家航空业巨头之间的竞争。

    为了打入新兴市场和推广新飞机，空客与波音正在进行激烈的价格战。于是它们的客户就利用了这一点。阿波拉弗亚说：“我认为，它们已经意识到必须趁热打铁，尽快拿到客户的预付款。”

    这种情况下，速度是最关键的因素。狮子航空的基拉那打算与马来西亚竞争对手亚洲航空（AirAsia）展开角逐，因此需要尽快买进更多飞机，而这种需求可能超过了只从波音公司订购的任何承诺。

    如果狮子航空的模式取得成功，其他公司可能会纷纷效仿。如果公司能从空客获得足够多的实惠，足以抵消增加的维护与培训成本，那么其他公司可能也会实行机队多样化，进而进一步加剧波音与空客的竞争。

    In 2011, President Obama watched Boeing's senior vice president Ray Conner pen a deal in Bali with Rusdi Kirana, CEO of Indonesian airline Lion Air. The deal secured almost $22 billion worth of business to the American airplane manufacturer. Lion Air, a low-cost carrier for the booming Southeast Asian market, had always done business with Boeing.

    This Monday, the same scene took place, only with different players. Kirana was still there, but this time, he was signing a deal with Boeing rival Airbus' CEO Fabrice Bregier, while French President Francois Hollande, not Obama, looked on.

    Low-cost carriers don't typically switch business allegiances like this, says Morningstar analyst Neal Dihora, because it is expensive to maintain and fly two different types of planes. So why would Lion Air make the switch? And what does it mean for Boeing?

    Worst case for Boeing (BA): The Dreamliner's battery woes have hurt its reputation, says Richard Aboulafia, vice president of consulting firm Teal Group. But, he adds, that scenario is also the least likely. All new plane launches have problems that analysts and eventually customers usually forgive. Besides, Boeing's business is big, with a market cap of about $65 billion. It is also one of two companies, the other being Airbus, that can supply anyone looking to buy planes that seat more than 100 people.

    Boeing has had a big year. This January, it bested Airbus on total number of planes delivered for 2012. The company also delivered a record-breaking 601 planes while Airbus, close behind, delivered 588.

    And yet, the bulk of the companies' business is in undelivered aircraft. Both companies delivered about 600 planes, but each has a backlog of more than 4,000 that isn't going anywhere soon. Part of that is because Boeing and Airbus use subcontractors to build most pieces of their planes – often the same subcontractors, in fact. So, no matter how many planes airlines and other customers order, these suppliers can only produce so many plane pieces at any given time.

    Because of such backlogs, small, growing companies like Lion Air that are looking to diversify their fleets often have a tough time procuring planes.

    One way to expedite the process, suggests Dihora, is to sign big splashy deals such as the $22 billion one in 2011 and the $24 billion one this week. The recent deal with Airbus, at its most innocent, is merely an example of Lion Air ordering from both Boeing and Airbus because one couldn't handle the demand by itself. Another possibility, suggests Aboulafia, is that the little company is pitting the two air titans against each other.

    Airbus and Boeing are waging a brutal price war to access emerging markets and to roll out new aircraft. So their customers can take advantage, says Aboulafia: "I think there's this realization that they should strike while the iron is hot and get that upfront pricing."

    Speed is of the essence, in this case. Lion Air's Kirana is looking to give Malaysian-based rival AirAsia a run for its money, and he needs to get more planes fast, which probably trumps any obligation to order exclusively from Boeing.

    Lion Air could set an example to others if this model works. If the airline got a good enough deal from Airbus to outweigh the higher maintenance and training costs, other companies might also diversify their fleets, deepening the Boeing-Airbus rivalry.