没人需要苹果iWatch

    现在看来，这种想法不能不让人发笑。不过那时才2002年，当时如果能从手表上看到这些信息确实是够酷的。但今天大家都能从智能手机上获得这类信息，而且信息量要大得多。SPOT的服务需要用户每月交60美元，还得戴上那个笨重的手表——这两点在消费者眼里都够不讨喜的。等到无线运营商开始提供和手机捆绑的、便宜的数据套餐之后，SPOT手表就不可避免地走向了灭亡。

    如今所谓的智能手表跟SPOT手表相比纯粹就是个傻瓜设备，因为它们要靠智能手机为它传输数据，而不是依靠调频广播或第三方数据来源。这就意味着，你这想象的智能手表如果旁边没有智能手机，那它就纯属废物。如果这个笨重的“手表”的主要功能只是提供你能从口袋里掏出手机查看的那些信息，那它就实在没什么用处。在手表上试着遥控点什么事，比如发短信，实在是不太可能，或至少，哪怕是通过语音合成软件来完成，也是够烦人的。通过它遥控音乐播放好像挺方便的，但现在随便一副像样的耳机就能做到。眯着眼在一块最多两英寸大小的屏幕上笨手笨脚地操作，既施展不开手脚，也让人分心。想象一下，除了手机、平板电脑和笔记本电脑，还得为手表充电。真是有点没事找事。

    实际上，老百姓对这种手表似乎也是这种看法。你最近一次看到有人玩智能手表是什么时候？很可能从来就没看到过。而这并不是因为傻瓜智能手表是什么新鲜事物。SPOT寿终正寝后，微软的许多前合作伙伴，如手表制造商Fossil，就试着生产与索爱（Sony Ericsson）和Abacus这类品牌的智能手机相配的手表。这些表都非常时尚，不像它们的前辈们那么难看，主要是因为它们看起来像是传统的指针盘手表。使它们“智能”起来的是手表底部安装的一个电子板带，它能在迷你屏幕上显示来电和短信通知，还能发出振动提醒。

    最近，市面上出现了一种新一代智能手表，其中一些能和搭载谷歌（Google）安卓和苹果iOS操作系统的设备很好地连接（但实际上还是没什么用处）。由Allerta公司推出的InPulse智能手表几年前就面世了，它主打黑莓手机（Blackberry）用户。我觉得，这在那时候不失为一个好主意。该公司创始人后来到众筹网站Kickstarter为一款名为Pebble的新手表筹资，这款手表能和安卓及iOS设备连接。Pebble是个有多种颜色的大家伙，起价150美元，刚开始在市场上出售（坊间对它评价不一）。而Fossil则继续拿出不撞南墙不回头的劲头往前冲。这次推出的手表雅号叫MetaWatch，是一款有多种款式、专供安卓使用的蓝牙连接手表。而去年刚刚去掉“爱立信”名字的索尼公司（Sony）则在2012年推出了多款时髦的手表，命名为LiveView（它们看起来都大同小异），以及一款聪明地取名为智能手表（Smartwatch）的产品。这两款手表都是为安卓手机打造的，都很便宜——LiveView在亚马逊网站（Amazon）上售价仅为25美元。

    今年的拉斯维加斯消费电子展（Consumer Electronics Show）上，有多款其他品牌的智能手表出售，其中抢眼的有：简单的CooKoo，昂贵的i'm Watch，复古的Martian，运动型的WearIT和优雅的Leikr。你可能会觉得奇怪，怎么会突然冒出来这么多这类产品？这是因为手表是个极其个人化的物品。尽管智能手表因为自身的局限性，市场可能一直很小，但消费者还是想有多种选择以反映自己的生活方式（时髦的、运动的或是复古的）以及时尚品味（比如书卷气的嬉皮士，或是超级书呆子）。

    智能手表可能真正能有发展前途的地方是健身领域。目前健身手表市场绝大部分都被几大巨头品牌掌控，如佳明（Garmin）和天美时（Timex）。但这两大品牌都还没有生产专用的智能手表，所以对强有力的后来者而言，市场空间依然存在。对这类手表来说，时尚和设计感不如功能重要，所以人们不会认为你手上戴了个笨重的小屏幕，就认为你是个怪人。摩托罗拉（Motorola）推出的MotoActv就是主打健身的智能手表，它可能会很受运动迷的追捧。但是这些周末健身人士第二天上班会不会还戴着这款手表就不好说了。耐克公司（Nike）的Fuelband运动跟踪器和手表则是另一个似乎有大卖迹象的例子。部分原因在于，它戴在手上非常不显眼（请注意，大家谈得很多的Jawbone UP根本就不是手表）。

    对苹果和三星来说，时尚和生活方式问题是个大事。按照苹果的路数，如果它真的推出一款“iWatch”，它可能会是一款有各种颜色的手表。而缺乏想象力的三星最有可能干的就是亦步亦趋地跟着苹果学。这就意味着，这两款产品如果功能和上述手表完全一样，那它们将会吸引一小帮真的认可其设计、同时相信这种手表符合自己风格的消费者。而这两条都不容易办到——哪怕实力雄厚如苹果者，也不是那么容易交出漂亮的答卷。（财富中文网）

    译者：清远

    Today's smartwatches are mere dummies compared to the SPOT watch as they depend on smartphones to feed it data, as opposed to FM broadcasts or a third-party source. So that means you’r supposed smartwatch would be pretty dumb without a smartphone in close proximity. There is little utility in wearing a clunky "watch" whose main purpose is to deliver messages that you can see by reaching in your pocket and looking at your phone. Trying to do anything remotely useful on the watch, like, say, sending a text message, is pretty much impossible, or at the very least, really annoying if done through text-to-speech software. Controlling your music remotely seems handy, but you can already do that with any decent pair of headphones these days. Squinting and fumbling with a screen that is at its maximum two inches by two inches is both limiting and distracting. Imagine having to remember to juice up your watch in addition to your phone, tablet and laptop. It all seems so unnecessary.

    Indeed, it appears that the general public thinks so as well. When was the last time you saw a person sporting a smartwatch? Chances are you haven't. And it is not because the dummy smartwatch is something new. After the demise of SPOT, many of Microsoft's former partners, like watchmaker Fossil, attempted to make watches that paired with smartphones under the Sony Ericsson (SNE) and Abacus brands. The watches were actually quite stylish and weren't as ugly as their predecessors, mainly because they looked like normal analogue watches. What made them "smart" was an electronic strip at the bottom that displayed data in a ticker-tape fashion.

    Recently, a whole new generation of smartwatches has hit the market, some with pretty good (but still practically useless) links to devices running Google's (GOOG) Android and Apple's iOS operating systems. The InPulse smartwatch by Allerta hit the scene a couple years ago targeting Blackberry (RIMM) users, which, I guess, seemed like a good idea at the time. The founders later went on to social begging site Kickstarter to fund a new watch, Pebble, which connects to both Android and iOS devices. The Pebble, which is big and comes in an array of colors, goes for $150 and just started shipping (to mixed reviews). Fossil continued to beat its head against the wall, this time under the moniker MetaWatch, which are an array of Bluetooth-connected watches for Android. Sony, which dropped the Ericsson name last year, came out with a couple of sleek watches in 2012 (that pretty much look the same), the LiveView, and cleverly named Smartwatch. Both are made for Android phones and are pretty cheap – the LiveView goes for under $25 on Amazon (AMZN).

    At the Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas this year there were a number of other smartwatches up for grabs, notably: the simple Cookoo, the pricy i'm Watch, the retro Martian, the sporty WearIT and the elegant Leikr. You might be wondering why there are so many of these things? Well, that's because the watch is an extremely personal item. While the market for smartwatches will probably remain quite small given its limitations, consumers still want an array of choice to reflect their lifestyle (trendy vs sporty vs classic) as well as their fashion sense (nerdy hipster vs nerdy nerd, for example).

    The one place where smartwatches may have a future is in the fitness space. The market for fitness watches is pretty much locked up by a few big names at the moment including Garmin (GRMN) and Timex. Neither has made a dedicated smartwatch, yet, so there is an opening for a strong alternative. Fashion and design here take a backseat to function, so people won't think you are weird for having a chunky screen on your wrist. Motorola MotoActv is a fitness centric smartwatch and could become very popular with hard-core athletes, but it is doubtful if those weekend warriors will wear their smartwatch when they go to work the next day. Nike's (NKE)Fuelband motion tracker and watch is another example that has seemed to take off, in part because it is so inconspicuous on the wrist. (Note that the much-talked-about Jawbone UP is not a watch at all...)

    This fashion and lifestyle issue is a big problem for both Apple and Samsung. Knowing how Apple works, if it does launch an "iWatch," it will probably be just one watch that comes in a variety of colors. The unimaginative Samsung will most likely just copy whatever Apple does to the letter. That means that both products, which will probably have the same features as all those watches mentioned above, will appeal to a narrow subset of consumers who really dig its design and who believe it will fit their style. Both are tall orders–something that even the mighty Apple, will have a hard time trying to deliver.