塞浦路斯形势恶化

    第三，目前尚不清楚到底需要多久才能使塞浦路斯经济运行恢复到一定的正常水平。今天导致该国经济瘫痪的因素远不止此次危机的直接冲击。塞浦路斯在欧盟成员国伙伴们的施压下正在永久性地毁掉其离岸金融中心的地位。如果没有新的增长模式和更大规模外部资金的支撑——这两个条件都不可能一蹴而就——它的经济就会面临陷入长期萧条的风险。

    最后，在欧元区其他一些经济状况比较脆弱的国家中，存款人，特别是那些大额非保险账户的存款人将会出现什么反应？现在这方面还存在一些疑问。既然欧洲已经百无禁忌，那么他们是否感觉有必要把钱从银行里取出来？

    大部分分析师们都理所当然地倾向重点关注较大的经济体，比如，意大利和西班牙。但同时，他们也应该对通常被视为一些较小的“非系统性”经济体（尤其是斯洛文尼亚和一些银行系统在国民经济中具有举足轻重地位的经济体）保持关注。历史告诫我们，某几个“非系统性”经济体内部的高度不稳定性很容易就会演变为系统性风险。

    这四大经济和金融方面的不确定性具有显著的社会政治维度。它们持续的时间越长，人们就越是容易对传统政治秩序和老牌政党失去信任——从而加大改革方案有效实施的难度，增加使社会陷入动荡的风险。

    塞浦路斯危机不只是关于一个小型欧元区经济体任其银行系统过度发展最终酿成危机的悲情故事，同时它也反映了决定欧元区稳定的主要因素在逐步发生重要转移——从前是各国政府、欧洲委员会（European Commission）、欧洲央行（European Central Bank）以及国际货币基金组织（International Monetary Fund）等组织机构的引导之手掌控着欧洲的稳定；而现在欧洲的稳定则更取决于越来越多的国家日益沮丧和失望的人民之间并不协调的行动。

    今天在塞浦路斯上演的故事使其他国家的人们想起一个古老的说法：耍我一次，是你的不对；耍我两次，就是我自己的不对了。

    要预测欧元区将会如何演变，分析师们必须拓宽他们的视野，超脱传统国家和多边权力中心的苑囿。许多欧元区经济体的命运越来越掌握在它们自己人民的手中——民众意识到，除了通过财务自保、经济脱钩以及社会抗议以外，自己已经别无选择。

    默罕默德•埃尔-埃利安，太平洋投资管理公司（PIMCC）首席执行官兼联席首席投资官。同时还担任美国总统的全球发展委员会主席。（财富中文网）

    译者：默默

    Third, it is not clear how long it will take for some sense of normalcy to return to the functioning of the Cypriot economy. Today the country is paralyzed by much more than the immediate shock of the crisis. Under pressure from its European partners, it is in the process of permanently dismantling its status as an offshore banking center. Absent a new growth model and much greater external financial support -- both of which are unlikely to materialize quickly -- the economy risks falling into a protracted depression.

    Finally, there are questions on how depositors will now behave in other vulnerable European countries, especially those with large uninsured accounts. Will they feel compelled to take cash out of banks now that Europe has broken all sorts of taboos?

    Most analysts are rightly inclined to focus on the larger economies such as Italy and Spain. In doing so, they should also keep a keen eye on what would normally be regarded as the smaller "non-systemic" ones (particularly Slovenia and those with a large banking system relative to their national economies). History warns us that heightened instability in a handful of "non-systemics" can easily become systemic.

    These four economic and financial uncertainties have notable socio-political dimensions. The longer they persist, the higher the risk that citizens would continue to lose trust in the traditional political order and established political parties -- thus reducing the scope for the effective implementation of reform programs and also increasing the risk of social disorder.

    Cyprus is more than the sad story of a small European economy which allowed its banks to grow excessively and irresponsibly. It is also an indicator of an important gradual shift in the major determinants of European stability -- away from the guiding hands of national governments, the European Commission, the European Central Bank, and the International Monetary Fund and to the less coordinated actions of increasingly frustrated and disillusioned citizens in a growing number of countries.

    What is happening in Cyprus today is reminding citizens in other countries of an old saying: Fool me once, shame on you; fool me twice, shame on me.

    To predict how Europe evolves from here, analysts need to broaden their focus well beyond the traditional national and multilateral power centers. Increasingly, the fate of a growing number of European economies rests in the hands of citizens who feel they have no choice but to self-insure financially, disconnect economically, and protest socially.

    Mohamed A. El-Erian is the CEO and co-chief investment officer of PIMCO. He also chairs the U.S. president's global development council.