低度金融混乱于中国无碍

    尽管如此，中国的金融混乱程度可能仍然只有30-40。和1978年相比有了更多的不确定性，但比2007年的美国安定。这是因为，只要政府确实还能通过发行货币来填补坏账留下的窟窿，金融体系就不太会受到影响。不得已时，政府还可以把影子银行贷款全都买下来。估计这些贷款的余额为3.7万亿美元。贸易伙伴和外国投资者可能会感到担心，还可能出现道德风险，但社会不会失控。

    中国并不能完全抵御对自身有伤害的恐慌和无知。环境恶化可能引发混乱，腐败也是如此。无收益放贷和过度管制都会造成人们被迫接受过多他们不想要的东西，而想要的东西又得到的太少，这就可能对实体经济产生不利影响。但只要金融混乱程度仍然较低，即使真的出现信贷危机，也不一定会引发经济危机。（财富中文网）

    Despite that, China is probably only a 30-40 on the Financial Chaos index -- more uncertain than in 1978, but less than the United States in 2007. That's because as long as the state can credibly bury bad debts with new money, the financial system can remain more or less whole. At a push, the government could buy all outstanding "shadow bank" lending, estimated at $3.7 trillion. Trade partners and foreign investors would worry; moral hazard would result. But there wouldn't be a social collapse.

    China isn't totally immune to self-destructive fear and ignorance. Environmental degradation could provoke chaos; so could corruption. Unproductive lending and too much control could harm the real economy, by giving people too much of what they don't want, and too little of what they do. But provided the level of financial chaos stays low, a credit crisis, even if it does happen, needn't be an economic one.